Kara Goucher's Chances to Make Olympics in the 10k

I'd say the early power rankings for the Women's 10k go like this:

1. Huddle - She's the clear class of the field...I doubt anybody sneaks up on her and she's a threat to medal in Rio if Treacy's consistent progression continues.

2. Sisson - I think she's going under the radar, and a better bet than Infeld/Hasay. Treacy's long term plan is the marathon for her, but if watching Huddle shows any clue of her current progression under him, she's going to be a powerhouse in the 10km this year, and after the Olympics both her and Huddle will move up to the marathon. She's going to break 31 minutes this year.

3. Infeld - She caught lightening in the bottle last year. Finally stayed healthy for a good period of time. Her times in the 10km aren't stellar, but she's a good championship style runner. I think Huddle and Sisson will use teamwork to keep the pace hard and honest, leaving Infeld with just enough to edge out those chasing.

Contenders:

The College girls: Seidel and Ostrander should be threats, but won't have the experience nor specific blocks of training to compete with the 3 above, if those 3 are healthy.

Hasay: She's a wildcard. Definitely has the talent, but never seems able to put it together. She seems like a younger Sara Hall...baseline talent, just no mental game.

Goucher: She's gritty, should have great base. She's never really relied on speed, and if she can handle a hot pace she's definitely in the mix if she remains healthy.

Emma Bates: People forget about her, but she's talented enough to be there. Is she training in Boise still?

Connelly: I think she's a contender, but she's more suited for the 5km than a gritty 10km race. In a sit and kick, she probably has the most speed.

Marathoners that probably won't be running the 10km:

Flanagan - she's at the age where trying to double back into the Marathon, her main event, isn't a good move.

Cragg - Also should be focusing on the marathon

I'm sure I missed a couple, but those listed above are the ones that matter.

Damn you Colt!

Jason44 wrote:

40% chance as of today.

could change as we get closer to the trials.

Actually, it WILL change as we get closer to the trials, ultimately ending up at 0% or 100% within a few minutes of the gun.

Lets not forget Bawcom. She made the team once and looked strong in LA.

It would be better if she didn't. She isn't going to be a factor on the track at the Olympics or anytime in the future. Having a young runner make the team and get experience for future competitions will be bigger. Jenny and Shalane made the teams as college runners and went on to medal on the world stage.

I wouldn't sleep on Seidel and maybe even Cuffe (If she can stay healthy I think Milt's big focus is the trials for her) With that said, there is a HUGE pool of women that could fill only 6 spots for the 5/10. Unfortunately only Huddle (and I guess I can't ignore Infeld since she has a medal) will be competitive at this years Olympics.

but what about.... wrote:

the blond from providence, too.

Sisson. On form the podium is Huddle, Infeld and Sisson. Kara is a long shot to make top 5.

Pretty good early run-down of possible contenders. I wonder how it will play out with NCAA's & USOT's being 3-4 weeks apart and then the Olympics another 4-weeks after. How long can someone like Ostrander keep the fire going? I'm pulling for a good run out of Emma Bates. She's a top-5 candidate - top-3 depending on injuries and how the race plays out.

Also, women doubling the 10k and the Marathon is nearly impossible. The 10k is Friday morning and the marathon is on Sunday morning. Only the Men have a realistic shot at doubling schedule-wise.

Kare Giver wrote:

Damn you Colt!

Kare Giver you're pathetic and obviously a moron. What happened to you? Did someone kick you in the head too many times?

huddle is talented but is a mental wild card. i don't trust her to make sound judgements in a big race, as evidenced by her WC blunder at the line where she let up and got 4th.i guess that could also work to her advantage because she'll be hungry to do well after that gaff.USA needs runners with a killer instinct, and we don't have many

Emma Bates: People forget about her, but she's talented enough to be there. Is she training in Boise still?

Bates is in Boston with Mahon's BAA High Performance Team.

It is more likely that kara participates, bombs and lashes out at alberto

30:55 in 2008. 31:16 in 2011.I too think her chances are slim, but why don't you look up some data before offering your opinion? Or change your name to "LazyTrackCoach"?

TrackCoach wrote:

Slim, very slim. I think she ran around 31 close to a decade ago, but a I don't think she has run a world class track time is several years.

Kara Wheeler is a touch New York City native. She'll hold up the American flag!

juniper runner wrote:

Going to be tough against Hudle, Infields, D'Agastino, Connelly, Hassey, and Spencer. And Craig and Flanigan could choose to try the double

like i said earlier in the thread, you're neglecting the blonde from providence.

Huddle not mentally tough? Obviously you didn't see her right off Shannon down the finishing straight of the USATF 5000, or break fields over and over for all her road titles. She is one of the most consistently competitive runners we have, making her momentary lapse in Beijing all the more dramatic.

yay area wrote:

Let me help you out ... wrote:

Thanks, I was searching for a distance runner named Connolly and could not find one.

Kim CONLEY. So, he was 3 for 7.

You had to search for it? She was 10,000m national champion two years ago, 5000m Olympian 4 years ago...

I had to search for someone named "Connolly", yes because I was not familiar with anyone named that. Conley is spelled differently and is two syllables, Connolly is not. All the other misspellings were phonetic enough that I knew who he was talking about.

If someone had said "Kim Connolly" I would have know right away.

uhhh, hello... wrote:

like i said earlier in the thread, you're neglecting the blonde from providence.

Hey bud, Kara's PR in the 10,000m is over 40 seconds faster than hers.

Track Fan 1979 wrote:

A lot has to go right for her and a lot has to go wrong for many pf the favorites on that day. Huddle, Twatt, Hasay will probably all make it. Very tough team to make.

So the main contenders are ...

Hudhell, Craig, Hassay, Twatt, Flanigin, Enfield, D'rAgasstino, Sence, Sissone, Grates and maybe Ally Overunder?

God some of you are illiterate.

dude.... wrote:

uhhh, hello... wrote:

like i said earlier in the thread, you're neglecting the blonde from providence.

Hey bud, Kara's PR in the 10,000m is over 40 seconds faster than hers.

But Kara's PR was set seven years prior when she was on the Nike altitude-doctor's research program out of Park City, right?