Doha 800m - Asbel capable of something very, very Special...

Thanks for this analysis of Komen's 7:20 time which I had always thought of as one of the greatest records of middle distance events. I hope Mo beats or gets close to the record as you say.

My point was that if Mo can handle Gebremeskel, et al. from that Paris 5000m won in 12:46, then he can conservatively go 12:45, but I'd think even a few seconds better. However, there's no way that you can call Gebremeskel's shape that day 12:33-35. That's just ridiculous. The question you need to ask is how he was going to be able to get to the bell at 11:33. No one has ever done that, not even close. Maybe he could have run 12:42-44 that day, I'll give you that. He has run no other times at other distances to suggest much better, and if you slow down the close by, say, 7 seconds as you suggest, then you have to pick up the prior pace by a ton, 20 seconds faster to bell! To run 12:46 with 53, that's 11:53 at the bell. He could not have run 11:33 to 4600m. No way. It seems as if Mo is on a mission to disprove doubters by running times and beating competition, from Lisbon and the 2M record to Doha. The only worry is that he saves something to win the race instead of going all out for time here. They pay for pacers, so maybe we will see something under 5. I don't believe that they will get that 4:55 they need to get close to Komen.

ventolin^3 wrote:

if kenyans had western facilities, they woud be running 3'25...

Having read your posts for the last 10 years I continue to wonder:

Why do you enjoy the "what-ifs" of track and field more than the reality? Serious question; I'm not trying to agitate you. While I find some interest in reading your explanations of how you build your predictions and some of your opinions, your tunnel vision towards what should happen in a particular race is repeatedly confounding.

Do you not accept that 99.99% of the time, there were will be one or multiple unavoidable limiting factors for an athlete's race?

Oh, and: 1:42.9 and 7:28 in Doha.

I hope Mo go for 7.20 on Friday

If he does it will be a double dagger for both Ventollin and Mo haters

Kiprop also had a hamstring injury last month. That could have set him back a bit.

Ventolin puts out reasoned arguments. He sets the bait out and waits for the critics to bite. I'd love to see a 7:20 from Mo. He is a talented, and spirited competitor who has already run a number of memorable races in his career. The 3K may be an ideal distance for him. If not ideal, then a race he can run very well.

utter nonsense

what part of your neurone doesn't comprehend 1%+ ???

borza chased 800i damn hard as did aman & both coudn't crack 1'44i !!!

they both ran 1'42+ outdoors those years

how inept do you have to be to think there isn't at least 1% difference between indoors/outdoors based on the hugely increased rotational forces encountered between indoors/oudoors ???

Kip's unrested 1'42.67i as 3rd race in 3/7 with easy last 600, shouda been

~ 1'42i - flat

in a 1-off, rested race

that is worst, a solo outdoors of

1'41-flat

& as i said 1% is a minimum

it's more like 1.25%+ for 800m as higher rotational forces at those higher bend speeds :

it's

v^2/r

term for rotational forces

higher speed -> higher forces -> more handicap from 200 -> 5k

therefore 1% maybe good for 3k, but

- 1+ % for 1500

- 1++ % for 800

utter nonsense

did Kip or Komen or borza or aman ???

eh ???

utterly trivial concern

if reports are 72F & little wind, then no problems

utter total nonsense

the banking offers sh!t compensation

as for track surface, more nonsense :

it's same synthetic as outdoors & has to comply with same iaaf 65% energy return limit

how inept are you ???

imo, difference between outdoors/indoors is

800 - 1+++%

1500 - 1++%

3000 - 1+%

from decreasing rotational forces of

v^2/r

utter total nonsense

it's worth 1% off that ->

7'22+ / 7'23+

off that uneven pace

utter nonsense

it beggars belief how inept you are ???

Welsh Wizard wrote:Edit..... That was meant to be, "much faster than the old wooden tracks"

what times on ole wooden tracks ???

what are you nonsensing ???

this ole 800i wr is not on wood

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.I never thought it some miracle that Farah could spin a wicked fast 15, have to admit I was thinking 3:30 flat or 29.x

Kiprop is never running 1:41x in May of a World Cahmps year if he does it is an accident, it is not his style to go after a race this short. At the 400 split it will take.Most agree that optimal splits are maybe , maybe on right day 2.0 apart. Of course you have outliers.

Kiprop in May would have to go by in under 50 flat, and he has not shown anything yet and his first race is gonna be a 1:41.x drastic drop?

Farah? 7:22? even a bigger joke. he needs close 40 off his best two mile ever closing like a banshee to even run that.

Another who will not go out on the edge over 1500M. He needs to avg. 2:27.x per K. Komen was a freak and probably drugged to the gills when at his best.

I say Ventolin goes 0-2 on these and then it's back to reality and Jim Ryun who I love, 1:39 potential.

how inept are you ???

i saw lotta those races on satellite & we have berlin '98 1 mile, where komen couda run

3'43+

if not for criminal ~ 20 field / shoved x2 1st bend / turned straight right into lane 3 / did most of effective pacing & still kicked in 54.4 !!!

komen maya been in rested for it, meaning no 12'39wr few days earlier in his legs, of :

3'26+ / 3'43+ / 7'17+

utterly clueless

you seemed to have no clue about these races

mo is very close to komen

utter nonsense

with 1% outdoor conversion it's

7'58+

clueless

it was a jog to 4k

mo blasted a 53+ in that 12'53

that was ~ 4y ago

he was hugely better in '12/'13

clueless

see above

both were capable of well below 12'50 that day

mo lot quicker at ~ 12'45

in '13 he couda gone ~ 12'40

your 1 useful contribution

if offered 24.5+ then 25.0+ to bell, asbel has an awesome 800 on

as for 7'22/7'23 - this is derisory for mo & even coupla others in field may warrant it

mo is clearly best guy there on known shape, albeit those other top africans have run nothing worth remembering indoors earlier

ventolin^3 wrote:

oslo was same in days of yore + having odd 105/95 track, built for 800/1500/5k/10k instead of standard 116/84 ???!!!

Vent, what is this? Length spent on straights/bends?

Is more distance on bends better?

Mr. Obvious wrote:

awesome...this is what you do every time somebody disagrees with you

I\'m not supporting Ventolin, but your posts in this thread are pretty poorly reasoned. I can\'t tell if you are trolling or sincerely think the things you\'ve been saying. It\'s like watching two stupid people argue over who is the stupidest.

Have you ever run track before? You're throwing some of the fastest times ever around like they are nothing and seem to have very little appreciation of them. Gebremeskel was not in 12:35-6 shape when he ran his PR because he had a 54 second close. Bekele was able to close his world record in a 57 after going all out from the gun

At this point, there's SO much to choose from .. but this was especially interesting.

jjjjjj wrote:

He has run no other times at other distances to suggest much better

and

ventolin^3 wrote:

eh ???

why does he have to ???

paris 5k in '12 was race of his life

who the hell does he have to historically back it up for ???

….

Yet when Coe ran 1:41, apparently that was NOT the race of his life, and his failure to "back it up" for Ventolin and all serious track fans illustrates a real failing on Coe's part. Gebremeskel (no 'y') does' thane to back anything up.

I could honestly see Mo running a great time. I'll give him 7:25. I don't know about 7:23, but we'll see. And Ventolin, I'll give Kiprop the win in 1:42.5. Should be some exciting stuff

It's amazing how many stupid people there are - meaning people who believe Komen was clean when he set his 2k record, never mind those who think Mo was clean when he ran 3:28. You can bet Mo's greatest asset is the guy who supplies him, Driouch (caught), and others while they conduct their off-season, away from testing, doping regimens.

Would be surprising if a 1500m runner, even one as good as Kiprop, has the speed at the beginning of a Championship year to run a super fast 800m and beat some of the best 800m runners in the world. Aman is always in good form at any given time and he should win this one. The one person who I feel could win it with his electric last 100m will not be there. Aman in 1.43.57.

Komen's record was 3k, not 2k (El G-4:44). Bekele did not get 3k worth of pacing in his world 5000m record. He got 2k and maybe not quite that. He got to the bell lap in 11:39.5 and thus closed in 57.85. Geb closed in 56.77 (28.61 last 200m) for 12:39.36 (he was starting to take the pace around 6:00 and had it solo soon after--through 3k in 7:38). With better pacing and more drafting, Geb and Bekele both could have run 12:35.

Gebremeskel ran 12:46.81. There was still a pack of 8 runners past 4k in 10:19.54 (last 1k in a slow 2:36). Gebremeskel had a phalanx of guys to draft off of through at least 4500m. There were still 7 guys in the lead pack with 500m to go and Gebremeskel still drafting behind two Kenyans, naturally. 4600m is reached at 11:52.1 (previous lap 60.97). Gebremeskel's last lap is 54.66 according to the telecast and he did slow down slightly at the end in what seems to be about a 26 last 200 where he is really flying most of the last 50m. But he closed just two seconds quicker than Geb off of a ten second slower pace to 4600m despite getting huge drafting advantages the entire way to 4600m. He essentially had a perfect ride except a too slow 4th k. With that kind of pacing, Geb and Bekele in their prime would have run 52 at the end.

Gebremeskel's Paris:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IGt3oQJ7GQ