How to Pace First Sub 3 Marathon Attempt

"Consequently, I believe the ideal marathon pacing strategy is to run your first 3 to 5 miles at slower than goal pace to conserve energy, maintain goal marathon pace through 2022 miles, and then run your fastest over the last 8K to 10K."

This is exactly what I said in an early post. Gives you the best chance of hitting sub-3 and actually enjoying your race.

which is more important? getting your BQ or going sub-3:00?if it's going sub-3:05, (and agree, get 3:03 or better to make sure you get in) then be conservative, aim for 1:31 for the 1st half.what race/course are you running? anything on the course to suggest different split goals?

marathon wrote:

Thanks again for the thoughts!

Was the half marathon a good effort? Yes it was honestly. It was about a minute and twenty second PR from my half time at the time of my last marathon in the spring (the 3:05, which was a nine minute PR).

And yes, I'm counting a lot on upped mileage. Before this I maxed at 55 and averaged around 45, so it's a jump up this cycle.

I agree 1:28 would be rough for the first half. I know it's splitting hairs but I was thinking 1:29, 1:30, or 1:31.

"A" goal is at least make Boston (never have) so that take about 3:03 probably for me. "B" goal at least take a stab at sub 3 (intelligently).

Isn't it funny how neurotic we can become in our last week when the running is lower than usual?

Good question.

I see it that it's easier lose a little pace gunning for sub 3 and still hitting 3:03, rather than pacing towards and 3:03 and deciding it's time to change plan mid stream and just expect a pace equivilant to a few minutes faster overall to just magically appear at mile 20.

With that in mind the goal is 2:59, with feeling just as happy if it ends up at 3:03 for example.

I'm leaning to around 1:29:30 (6:50 pace for the first half).

Thanks!

I have not run sub 3. However, you asked for thoughts, and I have some.

Let's say the a typical super elite marathoner has run 59:30 and 2:04. Even split in the marathon is 1:02. This is roughly 95.8% of half pace.

For a person who has run 1:25:30 and wants to run sub 3, a first half in 1:28:30 is 96.5% of half pace. 1:29 flat is closer to "elites" at 96%.

However, there's a reason they're elite and you're not (not to single you out, that goes for all of us I suspect).

A 1:30 split puts you at 94.8% of your half speed.

Still seems unlikely.

Targeting an even split 3:03 is probably smarter, as that puts at 93% of half speed.

You could probably do some analysis of your shorter distance performances to have an idea of % might make sense for you. Of course the sheer distance of the marathon makes the connection tenuous at best.

Big Dubs wrote:

"Consequently, I believe the ideal marathon pacing strategy is to run your first 3 to 5 miles at slower than goal pace to conserve energy, maintain goal marathon pace through 2022 miles, and then run your fastest over the last 8K to 10K."

This is exactly what I said in an early post. Gives you the best chance of hitting sub-3 and actually enjoying your race.

This is correct. You should run the first half between 1:30:30 and 1:31:00. If you are in sub 3 shape you will negative split. If you aren't you won't blow up as badly as you would have if you tried to bank time.

Realistically preciously few people at the 3:00 level can negative split a marathon. It takes great aerobic ability and great patience to do so. From what the poster said, I dont think a neg split is in the cards.

My two cents: 1:29:xx/1:30:xx. But in doing the 1:29, make the first 5 miles something like 7:15, 7:10, 7:00, 6:55, 6:50 (you are now 34 sec in the hole). Then slowly make back the time (goal overall pace is 6:51) - 6:45-6:50 for the next 15 miles - for the last 10K, just try to hang on and maintain 6:50-55 realizing its gonna be hard and you just wanna maintain and not tie up.

I think thats more realistic than expecting him to go 1:33/1:27 for example. Like many others said, banking time feels great early while you are doing it but the debt is always paid back many times over in those late miles.

Find a race with a reliable three-hour pace group. Stick with the group for the first 20 miles, then try to pull ahead. I did this for my first sub-3 in Portland and it went very well.

Luckily in philly there is a three hour pace group. That kind of pace group is oddly uncommon to find.

That can be really helpful. Draft like it's your job.

Fat hurts wrote:

I've had one failed sub-3 attempt. From that I concluded that the best way to get a sub-3 is to be in 2:50 shape.

This !

Some years ago I ran a 2.59 then 6 months later on a much better course ran a 2.49.

It's been a while between marathons, but I have had 3 more sub 3 attempts and failed (3.05, 3.09 & 3.23) simply because I have not been in 2.50 shape since.

I now firmly believe you need a good 10 minute buffer for the marathon.

Big Dubs wrote:

"Consequently, I believe the ideal marathon pacing strategy is to run your first 3 to 5 miles at slower than goal pace to conserve energy, maintain goal marathon pace through 2022 miles, and then run your fastest over the last 8K to 10K."

This is exactly what I said in an early post. Gives you the best chance of hitting sub-3 and actually enjoying your race.

Yeah, I also agree with this. When I ran my first sub 3 in Philly, I went in with a 1:26 half PR. I went through the half just over 1:30 and came back in just under 1:29. When you are a borderline sub 3 guy, you have to take the first few miles easier than you want. 6:55-7:00. Banking time never works.

Good luck!

Run 6:45 pace as long as possible.

Run 6:40 pace thru hopefully 21 miles at which point you will have a little cushion for the last 5.2 miles and you should be able to hold on and run 2:59 ish. Good luck.

Thanks all.

I ran 3:00:08. First half 1:29:38.

Dude, that is a perfect race given your half pr. Be proud. Next cycle you are ready. Hell, you're ready now on a flat course. Way to go. Have a beer.

Thanks man!

I agree on everything... Especially the beer!

I agree with the poster who said if you want to run 3:00 be in shape to run 2:50.

I think the "negative split" is great for time trialing but doesn't hold up when it comes to actual racing and even moreso with the marathon.

Outside of elites you are not going to see many true negative splits in the marathon from the 2:25 guy to the 3:00 guy...if I see a race split like 1:14/1:11 then I see a guy who could have run 2:23 instead of 2:25.

Also if this guy has done 1:25 half he needs to aim for 3:05 not 3:00...go out in 1:30-32 come back in 1:31-33.

Normal humans slow down in the marathon. ..its just natural. Doesn't matter if you run fast or slow from the start.

Alan

Alan

Great job! Glad to hear the race went well. Big congrats on the PR!