20mph winds in New York on race day

Winds are good for USA. The Americans will be involved for a longer period of time in a tactical jogfest.

Anyone that is attempting to run a time is done. Go and enjoy the city.

The Friday map shows a large HP central Canada, it will be slowly moving eastward. This is the culprit. If it's moving slowly enough the winds may not be that bad. But it will be strengthening as the smaller HP mass on the east coast weakens. Tough luck, but at least it will not be warm. It's like summer here today.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98f.gif

This is why NY is better than Chicago or Berlin or London. IT IS A RACE. Winning time is meaningless.

nyc lifer wrote:

This is why NY is better than Chicago or Berlin or London. IT IS A RACE. Winning time is meaningless.

Unless you're G Mutai and get favorable winds and run 2:05:06. Then time is pretty meaningful.

Anyway, because of the angle of NYC, wind out of the NNW isn't a dead against head wind [except on the Queensboro Bridge + CPS]. Won't make for fast times, but probably not as bad as a strong wind out of the NE.

dkny64 wrote:

Anyway, because of the angle of NYC, wind out of the NNW isn't a dead against head wind [except on the Queensboro Bridge + CPS]. Won't make for fast times, but probably not as bad as a strong wind out of the NE.

Are you sure you understand where NNW is coming from and what portion of the wind vector will be in the faces of of the runners? Don't forget the Canyon Effect, which causes winds to barrel down streets perpendicular to the prevailing winds.

If you are running north into a 22mph wind coming from the NW, it is the same as running directly into a headwind of 11mph. That's a lot. North into a 20mpw NNW wind is closer to a 18mph headwind (trigonometry).

Unless you're G Mutai, you're probably going to be able to find one of the 45,000 other runners running an appropriate pace to draft off of so you won't get the full effect of the wind.

the canyon effect actually concentrates the wind so you get gusts and eddies much faster and stronger than the officially recorded wind speeds. The taller the building the more collection, concentration, and channeling of the winds. Fun!

There aren't many talk building's on the NYCM course.

where the wind blows wrote:

dkny64 wrote:

Anyway, because of the angle of NYC, wind out of the NNW isn't a dead against head wind [except on the Queensboro Bridge + CPS]. Won't make for fast times, but probably not as bad as a strong wind out of the NE.

Are you sure you understand where NNW is coming from and what portion of the wind vector will be in the faces of of the runners? Don't forget the Canyon Effect, which causes winds to barrel down streets perpendicular to the prevailing winds.

If you are running north into a 22mph wind coming from the NW, it is the same as running directly into a headwind of 11mph. That's a lot. North into a 20mpw NNW wind is closer to a 18mph headwind (trigonometry).

All valid points + although I've lived and run in NYC for 30 years, I've never run the marathon so don't have first hand experience with how the wind channels on the course. Basically, high wind from whatever direction isn't going to be great, but if it's more WNW than NNW on race day, it will probably bounce back and forth between getting channeled into a tail wind and channeled into a head wind.

Monkeys typing wrote:

Unless you're G Mutai, you're probably going to be able to find one of the 45,000 other runners running an appropriate pace to draft off of so you won't get the full effect of the wind.

If you're running between 2:25 and 2:45, you're not going to have a lot of people around for company.

I feel even worse for the ~100lb elite woman in the 2:30 - 2:40 range because once they get dropped from the lead pack, they're going to be suffering alone in the wind.

Actually, if the winds were to shift from the west/nw to more northerly during the day, this would be a net benefit in NYC. And yes there are certain areas of the course with tall buildings and some without. Certainly the QB bridge is a negative no matter what, same with the Madison Ave Bridge and CPSouth, but depending on specific locations the buildings can act as shields and neutralize it. Runners should have an idea of where these will be so they can mentally prepare for them.

Predicting wind speed and direction 4 days out is like trying to hit a bullseye with crooked arrow.

One day closer and the forecast is worse today than yesterday 26 mph

nyc lifer wrote:

This is why NY is better than Chicago or Berlin or London. IT IS A RACE. Winning time is meaningless.

Those other 3 events draw superior elites. Care to guess why?

depends how you define 'superior elites'

but from the lRC homepage today:

Berlin had the times and Chicago had Kenenisa Bekele, but New York has the best field of all of them. Just look at the names in that last paragraph. Add in 2010 NYC champ Gebre Gebermariam, 2012 Tokyo champ Michael Kipyego, last year’s third-placer Lusapho April and 2013 Boston runner-up/2008 Olympic 10k bronze medallist Micah Kogo and New York has the deepest field of any fall marathon.

___

Do you disagree that the NYCM field is stronger than Berlin or London or Chicago?

East Africans, historically, haven't done well with strong headwind conditions and especially not when temps are low with headwinds.

So we have finally found the cryptonite to East African distance running: use their small bodies against them. Cold and headwind are the skinny runner's worst nightmare.

This is where the bigger, stronger American runner will do well!

AltitudeMan. wrote:

East Africans, historically, haven't done well with strong headwind conditions and especially not when temps are low with headwinds.

This is where the bigger, stronger American runner will do well!

Meb should be used to running in the cold from training at altitude in the winter. Also, he is no stranger to tough courses and conditions.

However, he has that African built. Skinny/small. On the other hand, low temps in NYC are most of the time exaggerated by the forecast. I expect 45-50 degrees during the race, which is ideal.

There was a stiff north wind last year-don't think it was 20, but it felt like at least 10 or 15. Cold and chilly,-chafed my nipples like a fothermucker.