Every kenyan track distance record set during EPO boom!

coach..... wrote:

blatant EPO

discus....

The discus record too?

every NOPe record set during the sleazy sauce era

I'd like to see Renato try to explain away this one

the circumstancial evidence is compelling

isn't there like gazillions of guys running over there and not all of them doing marathons

has the training regressed?

is it a bad diet?

Logic Man wrote:

looks bad from here wrote:

the circumstancial evidence is compelling

Not to any mathematically literate person.

"Often those who don't know statistics feel compelled to explain what are otherwise natural low & high fluctuations in data." -Neil deGrasse Tyson

you mean when there's a new undetectable superdrug lots of people suddenly run faster?

or its just a happy coincidence?

In that period, track could give a big amount of money for the best specialists. Appearance for many competitions could be about 50,000 USD, in the case of a WR attempt, and, for example, Daniel Komen tried WR in different events several times, during his 3 crazy seasons (1996-97-98), that at the end went to burn him.

Looking at WR as priority, organizers put together the best possible field of runnes, without forgetting the incentive of IAAF (50,000 USD, after becoming 100,000) and of the Companies (Nike and Adidas).

In this panorama, also pacers were well paid. I remember a WR of Moses Kiptanui in Zurich, when Eliud Bargnetuny was paid 12,000 USD for pacing till 2000m (more than the prize for the winners of a DL, today).

Together with this fact, we need to accept the idea that there were talents stronger than the athletes of today.

Today there is not a Daniel Komen around, there is not a Moses Kiptanui, and there are not Hicham El Guerrouj, Haile Gebrselassie and Kenenisa Bekele trying WR pacing all the best Kenyan to their best Personal Performances.

El Guerrouj can explain the national record of Noah Ngeny, for example. You don't think that, if today there is EG trying to run under 3'26", Asbel Kiprop and Silas Kiplagat can run faster than Ngeny ?

In 1998 I went Kenya for the first time. I alreay gave training plans to some of the best in the World (such as Wilson Boit Kipketer in steeple), but really I was not part of their local activity, and I din't know the local situation.

When I went there, I saw incredible Young talents everywhere, without any training plan, able to run fast only because they ran fast in their training. No technical strategy, no advanced methodologies, only hard training (not Always correct) alternated with long periods of total rest.

Marathon was not a factor, apart the Group of Gabriele Rosa, and never involved the best runners.

The idea was to move to Marathon after realizing there was no more the ability to be competitive on track : Marathon as last choice, when the engine was already burnt, and the body structure consumpted.

I remember in 1998 one athlete already 42 years old came to me completely drunk, very much swollen for alcool, asking a training plan because he needed money. I wrote some stupid simple plan of a small piece of paper, only for becoming free from the disgusting presence of this man.

I went back Kenya after 45 days. One man slim, without any signal of alcool, came to me thanking and telling me : "I did everything, now I'm ready for a Marathon". This was the same athlete of before : went to Rome Marathon, and bettered his PB with 2:11:09. This athlete was William Koech, many times in Kenyan Team for WCCCh, very big talent without any education, wasting the big part of his money for drinking....

Kim McDonald was the first (thank also to the action in Kenya of Moses Kiptanui) to give education to the athletes of his management, and this fact produced big difference in their results.

At the end of the discussion, I think there is nothing strange that the Kenyan records are still from that era.

The three main reasons :

1) Really great talents (Kiptanui, Ngeny, Komen...)

2) Very fast races (because EG, Gebrselassie and Bekele)

3) Interest of the organizers to create Always the best opportunity for running fast.

Today, we can find the same reasons for understanding the boom of the Marathons.

um, so you say in 1998 kenyans didn't know how to train...but at the same time you are not surprised they set records that lasted 20 years. And now, when kenyans DO know how to train, they can't break the records?

that part doesn't make sense.

but I understand the idea of the italian renaissance - in one city in Italy three of the greatest artists of all time lived at the same time. These things happen.

Logic Man wrote:

1999 had the record highest prize money available, even before adjusting for inflation. 2012 had the record highest prize money available for road races.

^^ This ^^

909090 wrote:

um, so you say in 1998 kenyans didn't know how to train...but at the same time you are not surprised they set records that lasted 20 years. And now, when kenyans DO know how to train, they can't break the records?

that part doesn't make sense.

It wasn't that common. Those really fantastic outliers that Renato mentioned were both phenomenal talents and had some professional organization.

Logic Man wrote:

909090 wrote:

but I understand the idea of the italian renaissance - in one city in Italy three of the greatest artists of all time lived at the same time. These things happen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion

Eh? You denying that Leonardo, raphael and michelangelo were among the greatest artists of all time? Or that those Kenyan records could have been set together without epo?

What the devil are you saying?

Your case would be stronger if all track distance records (from all participants)were settled during this period. Otherwise, I have no idea what the EPO testing difference was among Kenyas, Ethiopians, Moroccans, and the rest during this period. It is also curios that you don't include half and full marathon (unless you believe EPO has no effect here) as you well know that the fastest times, as well as the world record, include Kenyans and all have occurred in the last few years.

The athletes improving kenyan records belonged all the two groups : the management of Kim McDonald (himself was the coach), and, after 1993, the management of Gianni Demadonna, at that time working with dr. Gabriele Rosa.

Of course these athletes had good training strategies, also if they competed too frequently for earning money (for them and for the manager), something technically wrong.

What I say is that, apart these two groups, there were not advanced technical informations in Kenya, and athletes with great potential could grow only following the training of some of the best athletes in their village, without really having any specific clue.

For example, in 1999, at the end of the track season, I prepared the training plan for Wilson Boit Kipketer and Paul Kosgei, that year finalist in WCh in 3000m steeple, World Junior Record holder of steeple, that I wanted to move to longer distances.

At the beginning of December (after two months of their training), I went again Kenya, meeting these athletes.

They were in the same house (the owner was Wilson Boit Kipketer), used as training camp, in Ngong, near Nairobi.

After looking at the full report of their training, Paul Kosgei introduced to me two new guys, explaining :

"These are two new guys in training with me. One is 16 years old, the other 20. They did my same training". I asked : "How much of yor training ?", and the answer was "They did EVERYTHING with me".

At the end, I told them : "Listen, the plan I gave Paul is for an athlete already medalling n WCCCh, wigth the goal of running under 27'20" in 10000m and to move to HM. If you new guys were able to do the same training, it means two things : first, you have a lot of talent. Second, if you continue still for two months the same training, you finish your career before starting".

So, I prepared individual and specific plans for both of them.

They were Robert Kipchumba (1984), who in 2000m became the winner of WCCh and WCh of 10000m with juniores, and Wilbeforce Talel, immediately 4th in WCCCh that year, and in 2002 winner of Commonwealth Games in 10000m.

In Kenya there were a lot of cases like these.

Now, the situation is different, especially about Marathon. The best Marathon runners have good coaches following them (for example, Claudio Berardelli with the Group of Rosa, or Gabriele Nicola with the women of Gianni Demadonna), and there are Group around the best athletes (such as Wilson Kipsang and Geoffrey Mutai) using advanced methodology, after being instructed for long time in Iten, Kapsabet and Kaptagat by some of the best European coaches (about Marathon, the athletes know very much better than kenyan coaches correct strategies for preparing Marathon. There are no Marathon coaches in Kenya, apart Patrick Sang. I think when the best athletes of today quit running, if some of them can start coaching, the level of Kenyan Marathon runners can still grow, compared with the current situation).

But is a fact that the talent of Kenyan runners of the period 1960-1985 was, probably, higher than the talent of the current athletes.

What Kip Keino, Ben Jipcho, Henry Rono, John Ngugi could have run, with the professionalism of today ? Not only for better training plan, but especially for the continuity in training that they didn't have, also because the activity was not continuative and deep as today.

Look at 800m : Kenyan record was 1'42"28 already in 1984, and was not bettered till Rudisha. You don't think Henry Rono could have the same potentiality of Kenenisa Bekele, or Ngugi could already be able to run a Marathon under 2:05 if looking for that event ?

So, don't be surprised if there are periods with a lot of record, followed by long periods without any record.

This it's due to the level of the athletes, and on the level of the athletes other things depend (interest of organizers and media, money, image of athletics). And on money and image of athletics, recruitment of Young and strong athletes depends.

But don't think every performance is related with some new technical choice, some invention in training or some new type of doping. The quality of athletes, the organization of the activity, and the interest about what they do, are ALWAYS the main (if not the only) reasons because there are shining periods, and normal periods without stars.

Renato Canova wrote:

The quality of athletes, the organization of the activity, and the interest about what they do, are ALWAYS the main (if not the only) reasons because there are shining periods, and normal periods without stars.

quite true. in the 80s and 90s not only all track fans were looking all main events in the tv/in the stadium feverishly. these events like zürich, oslo and so on were also a magnet for the general public. i remember, how disappointing a race was, when the great stars (and they were always there) failed to run a world record or to touch it. this intensity is lost.

this fantastic atmosphere in the past was a true pusher for numerous great talents. even in every local track race in europe or in the us there were at least a dozen of runners able to perform a sub 16/5k.

but it has also to be said that this shining period was alluring to dope like hell to keep in step with.

ok thanks everybody for the replies

2 follow-up questions

1) which came first?

the startling new performances around 1994 or the prizemoney?

2) maybe one for the stats dude

how do you explain away this one..

http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_10kok.htm

( note the absence of times from 2000-2001 when EPO testing was introduced yet fast times before and after)

coach..... wrote:

2) maybe one for the stats dude

how do you explain away this one..

http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_10kok.htm

( note the absence of times from 2000-2001 when EPO testing was introduced yet fast times before and after)

There is nothing to explain there. If you think EPO testing slowed down times in 2000-2001 then tell me why Lagat and El G ran 3:26 in 2001.

FWIW Haile G struggled with injuries in 2000 and in 2001 started moving up to the roads for the 2002 London Marathon, so that explains his absence.

Every single WR set in the 90s was done on EPO, as was every high profile winning performance. There was no test and the benefits are massive. If you actually doubt this you must be incredible naive.

logic tells me there is a clear link between the performances from 1994-2008

and EPO-CERA

the performances and drug availability/lack of testing almost totally overlap

didn't Bekele and Dibaba suddenly get injured in 2009 when the biological passport was introduced?

coach..... wrote:

logic tells me there is a clear link between the performances from 1994-2008

and EPO-CERA

Logic tells me you already made up your mind on this issue before starting this thread. There were several good rebuttals to your thinking on the previous page and you've completely disregarded them. Logic tells me there is no point in discussing it further, you've already decided what to believe.

coach..... wrote:

( note the absence of times from 2000-2001 when EPO testing was introduced yet fast times before and after)

Note the absence of fast times in 1996 (only Salah Hissou) and 1999 (only Kamathi and Mourhit). Where was everybody else then? Sometimes you get a fast race in Hengelo or Brussels, and sometimes you don't. The whole season's list basically hinges on a key meet deciding to get it together or not.

And if everybody was afraid of EPO testing in 2000, are you suggesting that Ali Saidi-Sief and Mohammed Mourhit were clean when they ran 7:25 and 7:27 that year?

coach..... wrote:

didn't Bekele and Dibaba suddenly get injured in 2009 when the biological passport was introduced?

2009? When Bekele won both the 5000m and 10000m at the World Championships? Winning the latter in 26:46? Dibaba missed most of 2009 with injury, but came back towards the end to set a WR for 15km at the end of the year, and the following year was ranked number one in the world at 5000m and 10000m.