Check out the Monaco 200m (men) - - MOST INTERESTING sprint lineup of 2014 !

Wow! You're right this will be interesting, especially with the inclusion of Gay and Gatlin

In my opinion this should largely be a battle between Edward and Weir (though Gay presents a big question mark). I dont feel that Gatlin looks his best over 200m but he (as well as Mitchell) could surprise (Mitchell being the bronze medalist at Worlds would not be a total surprise of course but he has not been stellar this year).

Lemaitre will be interesting to watch. He has improved throughout the year, and is significantly better at 200m than 100m, but he still seems to be perpetually underprepared. Maybe it's his training, his coaching, it his strength (or a combination if the three) but he does not seem to have figured out how to maximize his potential.

Anyway:
Weir FTW, Edward second, and a fast charging Lemaitre edges Gay for third

Too tough to call, but this is my guess:

Edward
Ashmeade
Gatlin
Weir
Gay
Dwyer
Lemaitre
Mitchell

Gatlin and Weir ahead of Gay, even though they both just competed in Edmonton and will have had a long flight, but hopefully enough time to recover.

Edward FTW because of that huge 19.80, notwithstanding his recent mediocre 100m.

Ash over Gatlin and Weir because he is consistent and looks solid this year.

Gatlin in third just because. Remember, he's a 200m guy. IF he can manage his pacing in this race, he could very well win, in 19.8x If he gets the race of his life, he will go 19.6x-19.7x, given his windless 9.80

Who the F knows? That's what makes this race great, the op was right

I agree, this is very hard to predict which is why it's so great.

I do want to know why you say Gatlin is a 200m man, he always stuck me as more of a 60m-100m given his start, though I didn't follow the sport back before his ban.

I think he started out as a 200m guy and was best at 200m as a junior, but idk

Gatlin's not close in 200 to what he is in 100.

Gay has run fast enough to win over everyone except Bolt and Blake, but nobody knows what kind of 200 shape he's in. I think I'll call Gay to win because Blake's not in it.

Picking the US champ to be last shows how good a field it is.

Nah, Gay's labouring/chugging even at the 80m mark. He's fast over 100m, but no faster than Ashmeade, and certainly not faster than Gatlin. Gatlin's in the shape of his life, I think he will beat a recovering Gay, but Edward, Weir, and Ashmeade have something to prove.

I say Edward-Gatlin-Gay-Weir-Ashmeade-Dwyer-Mitchell-Lemaitre

Gay certainly is a wild card, but lets not forget Weir is a 19.7 man, and unless Gay is close to top form (unlike) I wouldn't think he's an easy pick over the Jamaican

I'll go:

Weir
Gay
Ashmeade
Edward
Mitchell
Gatlin
Lemaitre
Dwyer


Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

I don't know much about sprints, but that is interesting if a runner so absurdly dominant in the 100 this year as Gatlin isn't a front runner in the 100's speed-endurance cousin, the 200, then I guess I'm surprised and interested in how different the two different events are.

Sounds like a good race to watch,

Gay has run 19.58 and nobody in the field has been within 0.2 of that. But as I said, nobody knows what kind of 200 shape he's in.

I wonder who will draw what lane. Mitchell might get lane 1!

I think the result of this depends on who is inside who. To be more fair, they should run 2 races, with an inside-outside lane shuffle! Separate the races by the meet--one to open the meet, the other to close the meet. Do I have to tell these organizers EVERYTHING?

Weir
Edward
Gay
Ashmeade
Gatlin
Lamaitre
Dwyer
Mitchell

Smoke this fatty!

It's not as though Gatlin sucks in the 200m:

http://www.usatf.org/Athlete-Bios/Justin-Gatlin.aspx

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bulldog35 wrote:

Weir
Edward
Gay
Ashmeade
Gatlin
Lamaitre
Dwyer
Mitchell

Smoke this fatty!

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Why does Bolt race like once every year and a half?

Gatlin's the main wild card here. He's horribly underachieved for his career in the 200m. This is a prime opportunity for him to get a run under 20 seconds. As far as I know, he's only been sub-20 once ever with a 19.86 from 2002. There's a good chance he's once again in about 19.8x 200m shape.

Gay has the most upward potential in the field. He was probably already in 20.0-20.1 shape a couple weeks ago, and he's going to be stronger now than he was then. He will almost definitely go sub-20, but probably not by much. 19.8x at best.

Edward has obviously gone 19.8 already. Weir is essentially a 19.8 guy.

Anyone else will need a lot of help to take the race. This is probably a four-horse race.

My prediction:
1. Gay
2. Weir
3. Gatlin
4. Edward

It will be Edward, Gay, Gatlin, Ashmeade, Weir, Mitchell

OK so this is a really hard call.

Weir's a 19.8 guy but has been inconsistent.

The guys who have been racing 200's this year look like this in the world rankings, in order of performance not accounting for wind:

Edward - 2,6,8,10,22,31, with a worst time of 20.23(-1.5) (1st in a smaller meet)

Ashmeade - 3,9,13, with a worst time of 20.13(-0.2) (1st over Weir in a big meet)

Weir - 1,20,47,48, with a worst time of 20.31(-0.2) (2nd to Ashmeade in a big meet)

Lemaitre - 12,33,45, with a worst time of 20.30(+1.3) (1st in a small meet)

Mitchell - 14,26,44, with a worst time of 20.30(+1.3) (5th in a big meet)

Dwyer - 7,30, with a worst time of 20.22(-0.1) (1st in a semi)

Gatlin - raced once for a win, means nothing

Gay - hasn't raced yet


Some things:

Ashmeade > Mitchell. His worst time is better than Mitchell's best, and his worst was a win over the excellent Weir

Ashmeade > Weir. IF Weir's 19.8 #1 is thrown out, Ashmeade > Weir, for the same reasons stated for Mitchell, but even more so because Ashmeade has beaten Weir head-to-head; BUT Weir beat Ashmeade head-to-head, so this comes down to consistency; by that measure Ashmeade > Weir on the season

Weir > Mitchell. Better best result, better worst result considering wind, better placements in big meets.

So for the 3 of them, I have Ashmeade>Weir>Mitchell

Lemaitre > Mitchell. Roughly same overall placements. Same worst result, except Lemaitre's came in mid-May, whereas Mitchell's came at the very end of June. Lemaitre has shown noticeable improvement on the season, and will be running close to home.

Weir > Lemaitre. Not by much. Better placements in big meets notwithstanding unimpressive overall performances. #1 performance needs to be considered, Weir has shown a flash of brilliance that Lemaitre has not.

So for the 4 of them, I have Ashmeade>Weir>Lemaitre>Mitchell

Edward >= Ashmeade. Not by much. His worst performance was pretty much equal to Ashmeade's, both of them having done only what they needed to do to win. He has won every 200 this year except for NYC where he lost barely to Ashmeade, and significantly to Weir. 2.5 weeks later he improved his best time to essentially equal what Ashmeade had done in NYC, beating Ashmeade in the process. Head-to-head they are equal, but Edward has the favorable trajectory, but only by the smallest margin.

So for the 5 of them, I have Edward>=Ashmeade>Weir>Lemaitre>Mitchell

Dwyer > Lemaitre. Dwyer has run only 1 meet, but it was at the very end of June, and was a pressurized meet in Jamaica that he won, both in the semi and in the final, beating Weir in the process. His 2 performances this year are better by a little bit than are Lemaitre's 3. They are just about even, but Dwyer has beaten Weir, whereas Lemaitre has lost to Edward and Ashmeade.

Dwyer >= Weir. Performance records are essentially equal, maybe an edge to Weir because of the #1. Trajectory favors Dwyer, who beat Weir head-to-head at the end of June.

So for the 6 of them, I have Edward>=Ashmeade>Dwyer>=Weir>Lemaitre>Mitchell


Now the wildcards, Gay and Gatlin.

Gay >= Edward. Gay has recorded a much better 100m, although he looked like he was laboring compared to Gatlin who beat him in that race. He was matching SE with Rodgers who has been very good this year. This is a huge unknown, but assuming that Gay is progressing in his training, he is better than Edward, though not by much.

So for the 7 of them, I have Gay>=Edward>=Ashmeade>Dwyer>=Weir>Lemaitre>Mitchell

That's as far as I will go with the bs. The >= measures, you can switch the order. Mitchell will lose, and Weir/Dwyer will beat Lemaitre, who will beat Mitchell. Also, Gay, Edward, and Ashmeade will beat Dwyer, Weir, Lemaitre, and Mitchell.

The only remaining question is Gatlin. Based on how he destroyed Gay in the 100m, and how Gay wasn't gaining on him at the end, and how Gay seemed to be laboring a bit at the end of his second 100, and the fact that Gatlin is in 9.80-flat 100m shape (incredible), it is hard to bet against him. Not only has his start been excellent, his top speed maintenance has been good as well, he looks to have better recovery this year than in years past.

Conclusion:

Gatlin
Gay
Edward
Ashmeade
Dwyer
Weir
Lemaitre
Mitchell