Monaco DL: DREAM FIELDS AT 800,m 1500m, AND 5000m

I think that Kiprop is nowhere close to the WR, but hopefully Centrowitz will PR, he deserves a PR.

I say let's ditch the record talk and enjoy what are probably the most stacked races of the year without a global championship

1) If Rudisha is allowed to dictate the main pack (aside from Tangui who will add nothing to the race apart from running 5 meters ahead looking like he is tying up and then pulling out at an irrelevant 430m), he will win in 1.43 low. I hope like f$#k someone will at least try and get in front of him after 200m, but alas, I don't think anyone has the balls.

2) Kiprop will not get close to 3.26.00. People forget how hard that dope-fuelled record is and if that record is to go it is 1.73 seconds faster than his epic effort last year?! If he seriously attacks it (2.46 minimum at 1200m) I believe Soul man will beat him. Willis to sneak in back-door and potentially achieve life long goal of sub 3.30 - I mean after all - its a downhill track right?

Womens events, as always I could not give a cr@p about.

El G wasn't doped

He was just better because he worked harder, took it more seriously, had better training conditions than Kiprop. And was maybe more talented.

He wasn't even necessarily the best ever. Herb Elliot and of course Jim Ryun had as much talent if not more

M800m I agree, 1:43.00 plus or minus a tenth. Rudisha FTW

W800m Sum is the favorite over Wilson, but I don't think anyone will run 1:57. 1:58.10

M1500m Gonna be bad pacing, too fast through 400, too slow at 1200. Kiprop will win in 3:28.60, Centrowitz will run 3:32.40. Manzano will run poorly, maybe 3:34. Willis could PR, I'll say 3:30.50

W5000m Tougher to predict, but I'll guess a WL of 14:28.40

a couple of American girls will break 15, notably Huddle in 14:49 and Rowbury in 14:56. Conley will be close, maybe 15:01. Hasay will PR with 15:18.

and those are my predictions

Manchester wrote:

I say let's ditch the record talk and enjoy what are probably the most stacked races of the year without a global championship

Agreed - this could be the closest we're going to get to World Championship fields - but with the emphasis on time, not place.

johhnyb wrote:

I think that Kiprop is nowhere close to the WR, but hopefully Centrowitz will PR, he deserves a PR.

World Junior Cross Country Champion: outstanding natural endurance, outlasting all of his generation's best long distance men.

Olympic champion at 19, while looking physically puny and about 15 years old.

Two dominant world titles.

Recently ran a world leading time at 800m, running from the back and comfortably overtaking the field.

3:27 already last year, without his Ngeny or Lagat level rival having appeared to push him to greater heights (Kiplagat, Souleiman et al good but not there). And so many fewer genuine attempts at a fast time than El Guerrouj.

Fastest ever early season (pre July) 1500m time in Doha earlier this season.

Following the disappointment of injury at 2012 Olympics, appears motivated in his preparation and his racing to move to a different level.

Look at El Guerrouj's year by year 1500m PB progression. Then compare to Kiprop's. Then realise that we have a very real, live contender.

Of course, he's more likely to not break it than break it. It's a formidable 16 year old record. But if we're paying attention, we should be aware that Kiprop is the real deal and might just pull it off.

He's that good.

El Guerrouj set his records relatively early and then remarkably was able to approach them quite a few years later, whereas Kiprop never even ran below 3:30 for years before really setting down a fine time last year and now with his 800m at 1:43 low soon before the race, he looks to make a very good attempt at sub 3:27. I don't think he can drop all the way below 3:26 this year, but I expect him to break 3:27. Too bad Farah and Rupp won't be in the race. This would be a great chance for Rupp to break 3:30 if he's been doing some speedwork.

Soul Man is going to win this.

He does not have the consistent seasonal performances that El Guerrouj had - to set this world record he would have had to be running under 3:30 consistently this season.

Also the pacing would have to be near perfect and we know it rarely is/

Rudisha is not in winning form right now. For the women Sum is all alone with no one to challenge her this year

This 5k will not be as dramatic as the 3k and met-mile have been this year. Cherono and Dibaba are a great duel at 3k, but the 5k is all Genzebe, Cherono does not have the endurance to keep up with her yet. Hassan has been blazing in the 1500, but I don't think she will duplicate that in the 5.

But the women's mid-dist is looking like it's about to enter a golden era with all this young talent.

There's a great field in the men's steeplechase.

http://www.diamondleague-monaco.com/en/Program/Overview/3000m-Steeplechase-Men1/

J.R. wrote:

There's a great field in the men's steeplechase.

http://www.diamondleague-monaco.com/en/Program/Overview/3000m-Steeplechase-Men1/

Missed that one - Jager tries to break his American Record?

Also top five times this year in that field - Birech, Kemboi, Kipruto, Koech and Jager.

Loot wrote:

Rudisha is not in winning form right now.

Just ran the world lead = not in winning form right now.

Cool. Manzano got in.

Subplot of him against Centro.

I expect Centro to finish well ahead of Manzano but if Manzano beats him and sets a PR that would be an interesting story.

trollist the third wrote:

Loot wrote:

Rudisha is not in winning form right now.

Just ran the world lead = not in winning form right now.

*tied the world lead w/ Kiprop - 1:43.34 -> but Rudisha ran it all by himself against a sub-par field in Glasgow.

Does anyone know what time this starts on universal sports on Friday?

Awesome analysis. And way to go out on a limb with your predictions. You could have saved yourself some time and condensed it, though. Like this:

1.) The 800m world record holder will win the 800m.

2.) No one will break the world record in the 1500m.

3.) I hate women.

Someone should get you on the broadcast.