Marathon prediction and advice

It would not hurt to do 800s tomorrow. Yasso 800s have not been the best predictor for me. It seems like it works better for people who run over 3 hours. You should be able to take out in 6:30 to 6:35 pace and be fine.

Yasso 800s are useless as a pace predictor. Do not do them 10 days before the race. Too risky.

I would say 6:40s would be a good goal for you just because your long runs are pretty slow and because it is the first attempt to race a marathon. 6:30 for 20k is solid and could potentially be a marathon pace predictor if you were also hitting some marathon pace on the long runs and had previously raced a marathon.

10 days out is the perfect window for either Yasso's or a good tempo. A nice progressive 16 miler is ideal. Start out slow and easy and work into it and really hit the last 10 miles. That will be your goal pace. You should feel exactly like you could easily run 10 more at that same pace. I'm thinking 6:40 is about right.

You could also try 10 yassos at 2:50 each. Your 10x 1k indicates much better fitness than your last 10 mile race, which you could probably now run in close to 62 minutes. I think you could run 26.2 close to 2:50.

Thanks everyone, sounds like 6:40 is a good pace to start at. Maybe see how I feel at 30km, and either hold or speed up depending on how I feel?

I just did something similar to a progression run on Wednesday (but only 12 miles), so maybe Yasso 800's are best for tomorrow.

From a "best race" 10 miler at 6:20 pace to doing regular 6:30 pace medium runs is a pretty big gap in one winter, especially if you are not new to training. what's your training history?

Sounds like you could run sub three based on your ten miler.

If your race is only ten days away, I would not do Yasso's or any tough workout. You're already where you need to be. Start cutting back on mileage so you go into the race fresh.

There's nothing you can do at this point.

Go out at a 6:50 pace and see how you feel around. 20 miles.

Hmmm.. so maybe a slower pace would be safer to start with, I like the sound of that.

Not a lawyer – I don’t have much of a training history. Until this winter, I had really just been base building for about 5 years to about 80 miles a week. “Training” would be a long run (25-50 km) and short runs all around 7 min/mile, maybe some slightly faster hill work.

This winter was the first time I started real training (from I plan structured from information on the MacMillian website). I really have no idea what I am doing…

Thanks for the advice!

I've run a similar 10m time to yourself. I would start at around 7 for the first mile and then shoot for 6:50ish for the first 20 miles. If you feel solid after that then I would push the pace.

I think you should be able to go under 3. Good luck

Well, I ran the Yasso’s today, but I heeded some of the cautionary advice here and ran them not at full effort, but a comfortably hard pace.

Ended up with 2:54. So, I feel a little more confident with a 3 hour pace next week.