Stacked Payton Jordan 5k

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9 years ago 04/30/2014 3:31am EDT

re: jfnvejvbhebgv

jfnvejvbhebgv wrote:
Perspectivation wrote:
Rupp?
Cabral for Olympics. Should be interesting to see what he can do in the 5k after a rough first year as a pro. I believe he is doing a steeple here and a 5k out at Oxy (via the NY NJ AMA on Reddit). If I recall, he had Lyme Disease last year. Tough break. A recent near PR over 1500m 2 weeks ago (although far from his 3:56 mile PR) should indicate good fitness.
Matt Hughes also had a very solid run in the steeple at World Champs but missed the Olympics.
Rupp and Lagat are not in this race. Hill has already been mentioned. Possibly a female athlete or foreign (Not American) athlete that was top ten in both the OGs and WCs? Or am I forgetting a major American player?

Hughes could be an underdog. He doesn't run many 5000s, but remember he was 6th in the WCh Steeple at 8:11.64

9 years ago 04/30/2014 4:04am EDT

re: NOP Skeptic

NOP Skeptic wrote:And no, an indoor 5k is not a whole 10s slower than outdoors... Chelenga is not in 12:54 shape as he didn't even break 7:40 in the 3k at NBIGP...

try again

look up what the iaaf tables say what a 13'04i is worth outdoors

9 years ago 04/30/2014 9:35am EDT

re: NOP Skeptic

NOP Skeptic wrote:
I generally I wrote:
I generally agree with you but Jäger has run 13:02 already and True only lost on e to Hill in that absurdly tactical USA race
Yep, look at this:
1) Derrick: This guy (like True) is an aerobic monster! Why is he going to be in the top and beat the likes of this great field? Because True is not going to let this race get tactical and him and True have the most stamina... He ran a 3:39 last year at Oxy, not world class, but it beats True's 3:4x, and enough to get the job done... PR? 13:08 last year at DL Brussels... why is he in better shape? He looked really good in USA XC Champs and I feel he's the most sharp for this race. I've heard some in Jerry's group he's been hitting his threshold workouts really good and matching the top end speed with guys in the group. This will be Derrick's break out race and the only thing that would make it sweeter is if Cam was running the 5k, but I guess we'll wait and see, but for now I see him getting just over 13:00, 13:00-13:05 range, if not breaking 13
2)True: Ben freaking True was just off Gebremeskel in the 5k and crushed Chris Derrick in the last mile of the 15k, if anything he would kill a 10k right now, but he's running the 5k... Don't forget his training parter SAM CHELENGA ran 13:04 indoors in January giving Rupp a scare, so I know by now True can be in the 13:00-13:05 range
3) Jager: People seem to forget that Jager ran a 13:02 last year at DL Brussels and didn't he beat Rupp in that same race? With solid 3k speed from Steeple's he should be in contention for 13:00-13:05
4) Lamong: Can't say enough other than the 5k's his past 2 years, with a 13:11 win here with miscounted laps, a good tactical 5k at Olympic Trials, a great 3:51 mile beating Centro at Millrose and a 13:08 like 2 weeks later, it's hard to imagine he won't be in the 13:00-13:05 range outdoor
5) Hill: Ryan Hill has been ON FIRE! With a 7:34 3k (a time that 12:58 man Rupp split in his 2 Mile AR attempt) and his ability to hang with those Gebremeskel and Gebrehewit who have PR's of 12:46 and 12:47 (and don't give me crap about how they weren't going all out, Gebrehewit ran a 7:32 with Rupp the year b4) I think Hill is really to do some damage, and if he is there with 200 to go and Centro is no where to be seen, WATCH OUT! Regardless I say he is still in the 13:00-13:05 range
6) Centrowitz: I feel like he's going to realize the 5k is longer than he thinks, but with a backgroud of training with 10k runners like Rupp/Farah I think he may be able to make the jump... Moser had a 1500m background and she ran 15:13 at Oxy so he may be prepared, and with a 3:31 1500m and global medals he has the great mixture of speed and tactics, I'd say he's in the 13:05-13:10 range
7) Bumbalough: The guy who is great, but can never hit it spot on. but hey, he had a great 2k and Millrose and 3k and NBIGP plus he ran a PR of 13:12, with the stacked field I am confidence the top guys can pull him through at the 13:05-13:10 range
8) Heath: Okay, I know I am already going to get crap about this guy, but he ran 7:37 in the 3k at NBIGP beating some top guys and has mid-3:50i mile speed... he's really taken his step up and this race he is going to get the breakout PR he's been looking for, a sub-13:10... Look for him to hang on til about 400 with the pack, of course he doesn't have the finishing credentials as some others so for now I have him in the 13:05-13:10 range
9)Guys like Mead, Korir, and Estrada will love the honest PR past that's been set for them and will get in the 13:10-13:15
10) The collegians that are in the race and the other sub-elites are going to have to keep up and if they do we should see tons of PR's; I would sit here and list all the college elites but I don't have time, but guys like: Ben Sareel, Sean McGorty, Futsum, Parker Stinson, Joe Rosa, Joe Stilin, George Alex, Joe Bosshard, Brian Shrader, Shadrack Kipchirchir, Kirubel Erassa, Mitch Goose, Andrew Colley, Don Cabral, yeah all of these guys have a shot at the 13:20-13:30 range so lets see some PR's!
Thanks for reading my Payton Jordan 5k review, let me know what you think!
P.S. Don't be a LR jerk and rip on me, just having fun here

Great post.

A interesting stat on True is his last 1500 during last years USA 5,000 champs in Des Moines (also after the 10k final) was 3:38. He was leading the push until the last bit when the 3 guys passed him. But he's 1500 PR is not indicative of his speed.

9 years ago 04/30/2014 10:26am EDT

re: dtmack

dtmack wrote:
Great post.
A interesting stat on True is his last 1500 during last years USA 5,000 champs in Des Moines (also after the 10k final) was 3:38. He was leading the push until the last bit when the 3 guys passed him. But he's 1500 PR is not indicative of his speed.

Wow, really? I feel like True and Hill just kind of snuck up out of nowhere behind the focus on guys like Lagat, Lomong, Centro, Rupp, Derrick, Jager etc. It's kind of like they leap frogged up the the front of the chase pack.

It seems like it wasn't that long ago when the one hope for a US born athlete to break 13:00 was Teg when he went 13:04, and there was little hope that it would ever happen on US soil. Now there is a handful of guys that could do it at a meet like PRE, possibly the Cardinal Invite.

My only concern is that IF these guys are ready to break 13:00 in the next 30 days or so, they may not be peaking for the good ones later in the summer. I think that is where Rupp and Lagat will be making a run at the AR, will these guys still have it? I would like to see Centro race a 5000 in July or August. He is just ramping up and seems he's doing some big base work. He'll be working out with Rupp, Farah, Ritz, Levins on some longer stuff and he should be pretty well adjusted to the workload now. I could see him running something that may surpise folks at 3K or 5K.

9 years ago 04/30/2014 10:27am EDT

re: Birdogger

Galen ducking another RACE?

9 years ago 04/30/2014 10:37am EDT

re: Marathon Man 23

Marathon Man 23 wrote:
It is too early in the summer season - better to keep training.

So why do they run at Oxy then? Your statement makes no sense.

9 years ago 04/30/2014 3:00pm EDT

re: rupps missing

Oregonlive/Ken Goe quoted Bumbulough today that the BTC group is going all out.

Here is another take on the race from Runnerspace:

http://pro.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=88&do=news&news_id=250429

Still don't know who the rabbit will be.

9 years ago 04/30/2014 4:06pm EDT

re: rupps missing

rupps missing wrote:
Marathon Man 23 wrote:
It is too early in the summer season - better to keep training.
So why do they run at Oxy then? Your statement makes no sense.

It seems like a bit of a contradiction at first, but what I believe the poster is implying is emphasis. Rupp has hit Oxy as a rust buster speed workout, whereas I'm pretty sure the BTC guys are making more of a focus point out of this 5000 than Rupp would.

He did do the 10K several years ago, but he wasn't doing so much indoor racing then I don't think. Now he's pushing the indoor season and starting later for outdoor.

I'm excited to see this 5000 at Payton Jordan, but I hope all of these guys will have their best legs under them when the season is really in full swing.

That said, maybe some of these guys have to race a good one now in order to secure (hopefully) secure spots into these summer races. Considering the depth now even 13:05 may leave you on the sidelines unless you have some medals or titles.

9 years ago 05/01/2014 11:03pm EDT

re: Pulsar

It's too bad there will be no prelims this sunday for BUMbalough to outkick people when it doesn't matter.

9 years ago 05/01/2014 11:09pm EDT

re: BUMbalough

It would have been great to see Leavins in the 5000 rather than the 10,000.

9 years ago 05/01/2014 11:16pm EDT

re: 800mCoach

oh, coach, it matters EVERY SINGLE EFFING TIME. get that in your head.

9 years ago 05/01/2014 11:26pm EDT

re: Boring

9 years ago 05/02/2014 12:08am EDT

re: BUMbalough

9 years ago 05/02/2014 12:42am EDT

re: BUMbalough

This is their first race of the season. They are not breaking 13:15. This isn't even Tier I Americans. At best Tier I-B

9 years ago 05/02/2014 1:32pm EDT

re: Meade

Meade wrote:
Agreed. I think these could all go sub 13:00 (I am not saying I think all of these WILL, just that this is the list of potential sub 13s):
In order of likelihood, IMO:
Lopez Lomong
Evan Jager
Ben True
Ryan Hill
Andrew Bumbalough
Chris Derrick

Why is everyone underrating Derrick? He had some minor issues last year and underperformed at World Championships, but otherwise has been very consistent. A soft-ish 13:09 PR, he's ready for a jump.

9 years ago 05/02/2014 1:42pm EDT

re: Fastnbulbous

Ah I wrote before I saw this:

Derrick: This guy (like True) is an aerobic monster! Why is he going to be in the top and beat the likes of this great field? Because True is not going to let this race get tactical and him and True have the most stamina... He ran a 3:39 last year at Oxy, not world class, but it beats True's 3:4x, and enough to get the job done... PR? 13:08 last year at DL Brussels... why is he in better shape? He looked really good in USA XC Champs and I feel he's the most sharp for this race. I've heard some in Jerry's group he's been hitting his threshold workouts really good and matching the top end speed with guys in the group. This will be Derrick's break out race and the only thing that would make it sweeter is if Cam was running the 5k, but I guess we'll wait and see, but for now I see him getting just over 13:00, 13:00-13:05 range, if not breaking 13

So yeah, 13:08 pr. His apparent lack of kick could be an issue but I think he has potential to develop one like Rupp did. Best bet is to start a hard drive 1000 meters out and beat the kick out of most of 'em. If he's in shape for sub-13, I'd say he could win. If, more likely, he's good for 13:02-05, then I'd say 3rd.

9 years ago 05/02/2014 5:24pm EDT

re: Fastnbulbous

True will win this in 13:02

9 years ago 05/02/2014 7:03pm EDT

re: Ritzisold

Ritzisold wrote:
This is their first race of the season. They are not breaking 13:15. This isn't even Tier I Americans. At best Tier I-B

Well, let's not forget that this is the same meet where Solinsky became the first non african to break 27:00 and 2 or 3 of his teammates had huge PB's and a canadian record. If they are looking to run fast, I bet 13:00 is the goal and 13:10 will be letdown.

Wonder if Levins will take down the Canadian 10K here..

I'd say Levins could break all of these this summer:

3000 m 7:41.61 Kevin Sullivan 22 July 2008 DN Galan Stockholm, Sweden

5000 m 13:13.96 Jeff Schiebler 1 September 1998 ISTAF Berlin, Germany

10000 m 27:23.63 Simon Bairu 1 May 2010 Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational Palo Alto, United States

9 years ago 05/02/2014 7:41pm EDT

re: ventolin^3

Mo's pr is 12:53.11 (2011) still. He hasn't run 12:46. But with 3:28.81 and so many 5/10 golds, he must be capable of 12:40 or better. His legacy depends on getting some world records. I hope he goes after some this summer after his recovery from London and a few good months of track training.

9 years ago 05/03/2014 1:20am EDT

re: Perspectivation

Fvck, Levins should be in the 5k not the 10k. 10k got nobody to help him pr or canadian record.

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