themanontherun wrote:
We have no idea how fit Rupp is or isn't right now, but his teammate (Centro) hit a PR over an off distance. We're well enough removed from Rupp's excellent indoor season that he should be able to run pretty quick right now. The guys who just edged him over 3k indoors are all low 12:50 guys, but 5k seems to be an off distance for Rupp relative to mile and 10k. Any thoughts? Would the race have played out differently up front, or would he have changed the tactics?
Rupp certainly has had some off 5K's relative to his other races, but I wouldn't say it is necessarily an off distance. Throw out worlds and olympics finals because he was doubling back after 10,000. Only the greatest of the greatest can do that with success. He also has one or two 5000's where he went down but was looking good up to that point in very fast races.
He looked solid on 13:00 pace at PRE two years ago and beat most of the field for his 12:58. Hayward Field at midday is not known for being a super fast venue. There is often wind and I believe that was the first or second time ever that the 5000 went under 13:00 there despite guys racing who have run under 12:50, and even 12:40 in europe.
Last night would have been interesting if Rupp were in it. I suspect Rupp would have looked extremely easy on 13:05-13:10 pace when the second rabbit dropped, but the question is, what next? Would he have led from there? True was stuck in that position and the gave it up pretty quickly, and the pace dropped as a result. Can't blame him, but perhaps if Rupp was in there it would have become more cat and mouse with guys wanting to line up behind Rupp to have a crack at him.
I think it would have gone pretty much according to how it did last night, with the exception of Rupp taking over with 500 or 600 to go and taking it under 13:00.