Could a high school girls dream team have won ncaas?

I do not know enough about the NCAA girls to answer this question, but I would have Makena Morley (Bigfork, Montana) as the fifth runner in place of O'Keeffe.

definitely

Absolutely. And I agree with Morley ay #4.

Yes:

1) Efraimason beat Emma Bates (2nd at NCAA XC) earlier in the season. I would argue that Efraimason was more "on" (if not more peaked) than Bates for the Dellinger race, but she is still in the ballpark of top-10 @ NCAA.

2) Baxter and Cranny are both right in the same league as Efraimason.

3) Mary Cain would likely be this teams #1.

This gives us four runners who could realistically finish top-10, but would more likely finish top 20. I'd say two finish in the top 10 and two finish in the top 20, for a total of ~40 points.

I don't know much about high school running, but the 4th (the first one mentioned in this thread) was ~45 seconds back of Efraimason at NXN. Extrapolate that to ~60 second back at 6k (with a poor transition) and she finishes around 80th at NCAAs (if Efraimason finishes top ten). That puts the team total at 120, twenty points up on Villanova.

asfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasf wrote:

3) Mary Cain would likely be this teams #1.

Baxter beat her so "likely" is actually unlikely. Possible sure, but not likely.

RunSpokane wrote:

I do not know enough about the NCAA girls to answer this question, but I would have Makena Morley (Bigfork, Montana) as the fifth runner in place of O'Keeffe.

Agreed. Well, either Morley or Tessa Barrett.

not sure wrote:

No, the last K would hurt. Remember this is 6K on a tougher course, not a 5k on a flat horse track.

Portland Meadows runs slower than LaVerne Gibson when both are in good conditions. I agree the last K would be a step up for the HS kids, though I don't think most would have a problem with it (Baxter would probably be better for it, and I don't think the rest would be too negatively effected by it). Don't know if I'd say they would win NCAA though - yes, Efraimson beat Bates, but that doesn't mean the result would be the same if they squared off again. Comparing 3k times might be one way to get a clue as to how close they are, although the HS kids would be a little better than that would suggest since Baxter was sick and Efraimson only ran it pre-season, while Cranny competes at altitude (and didn't run a hard 3k/3200m/2 mile all season).

not sure wrote:

No, the last K would hurt. Remember this is 6K on a tougher course, not a 5k on a flat horse track.

Did you see the course? QUITE remarkable that three HS women ran sub 17:00 for 5000 meters on this:

I think the extra 1000 would have been trouble for the HS'ers.

Could either Eframsson or Gorecka (Euro Jr #1) have beaten D'Agostino?

Sooty wrote:

I think the extra 1000 would have been trouble for the HS'ers.

Could either Eframsson or Gorecka (Euro Jr #1) have beaten D'Agostino?

They wouldn't have to. I think D'Agostino still wins but these 3 from NXN slot into the top 15-18 at NC's. I wouldn't have thought so, but after watching them run on Saturday I'm convinced.

Just to play devils advocate however, Providence had 3 girls run 15:40 on Saturday.

Again, not saying that the HS Dream Team could pull it off, but...

In order to win, they'd have to average 28th place (scoring).

The 28th placer, Leah O'Connor, was a 4:20.75 / 16:09.46 girl last year.

Cain, Efraimson and Cranny were all faster at 1500m by quite a bit (Efraimson the slowest at 4:16.00). Cain was the only one that ran a 5k (15:45.46), so it's hard to tell how 3k-5k-10k type times would compare. I'd guess the HS dream team would have averaged closer to 16:15 last year, had they ran it.

Now, that's obviously only one point of comparison, but I would venture a guess it holds accurate enough: a HS Dream Team wouldn't win NCAA where they run 6k on what wasn't a fast course by any means this year, but would probably place top 5 (or, at worst, close to it). On a fast course, it may be closer.

With how deep the talent is this year in high school, I think it could be done.

The 5th runner for the HS Dream Team is likely more talented then the 5th runner for Providence.

I brought this up in another thread, but I went further and said I thought that a race between the 5 top HS girls and the Top NCAA women would be close and I thought that the HS'ers could win. Of course I got called an idiot which I will not debate!

Here is what I think could happen:

D'Ag

Cain

Efrmsn

Bates

Cranny

Avery

Baxter

Cuffe

Lipari

O'Keefe (or other)

27 to 28 … HS'ers win

Woody Allen wrote:

I brought this up in another thread, but I went further and said I thought that a race between the 5 top HS girls and the Top NCAA women would be close and I thought that the HS'ers could win. Of course I got called an idiot which I will not debate!

Here is what I think could happen:

D'Ag

Cain

Efrmsn

Bates

Cranny

Avery

Baxter

Cuffe

Lipari

O'Keefe (or other)

27 to 28 … HS'ers win

Interesting but are you talking 6k or 5k? I would move the milers (Cain, Efraimson, Cranny) down a few spots for the extra 1k; the reverse for Baxter. Not sure how O'Keefe or Makena (?) gear towards

Are people forgetting that Efraimson beat Emma Bates in a 6k at the Dellinger Invite?

I would include a healthy Anna Rohrer in the high school top five. I believe a dream team high school squad would beat a Providence squad that scored a rather high 141 points this year. I actually don't think it would be very close with the team having at least one or two runners in the top 10 overall, and five in the top 40. I think they would rather easily outdistance Providence on a good day. If Cain, Efraimson, or Baxter are capable of being top 10, then surely they could have two more (Cranny, Rohrer) within striking distance.

Duhhhhshington wrote:

Are people forgetting that Efraimson beat Emma Bates in a 6k at the Dellinger Invite?

Interesting, I didn't realize it was a 6k, seeing as how her finishing time was 16:35. Must be some kind of world record.

But how many would bet that most of these girls don't end up finishing nearly as high as some here are suggesting when they're actually IN the NCAA next year? I would. You're comparing girls running in relatively small front groups and dictating the pace from the start with girls who have had to deal with the challenge of competing against huge packs of generally faster and very evenly matched athletes. Then there's the fact that these high schoolers are all living at home and not managing university course loads. If you were to put some of the 10-30th NCAA women in that NXN race (after giving them a serious break from their studies), you'd probably see what a difference all this makes. It's interesting to speculate, but how these high schoolers do when they're actually IN the system is all that really matters.

No but we also realize that an midseason race when people are at different points in the peaking cycle doesn't tell the whole story. No bout Efraimson is a big stud but to pencil her in for 2nd because she beat Bates by