Good one.
But the Dow hit 6,469 on 3/2009. How was that 14 year return?
Good one.
But the Dow hit 6,469 on 3/2009. How was that 14 year return?
Big Dog Investments wrote:
I propose another DGTD prediction contest: PREDICT THE CORRECTION.
Here are the rules:
1) Give the exact date that the Dow will reach 10% below its high.
2) Your prediction must be made before the Dow has fallen 3% from its high.
Closest to the actual date wins with the winner receiving one genuine "attaboy" as prize.
Will it happen before the end of 2016? After the inauguration? Groundhog Day?
Let's hear what you think.
So far our prediction pool looks like this:
Big: January 13, 2017
agip: March 4, 2017
Let me know if I missed anyone. It's not too late to join the fun. Step up and take a chance.
Current data (as of 12/13/16):
Dow high...19,953.75
Prediction goal...17,958.37
Cut off number...19,355.14 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Good one.
But the Dow hit 6,469 on 3/2009. How was that 14 year return?
7.8%
Maths R Us wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Good one.
But the Dow hit 6,469 on 3/2009. How was that 14 year return?
7.8%
7.8% / 14 = 0.56% annualized, + 2% dividends = 2.56%
Interesting. That is a realistic assumption for 10-12 year future returns from current valuation of Dow 20,000. In other words, from current valuation, little more than dividends over the next 10-12 years.
Igy
Maths R Us wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Good one.
But the Dow hit 6,469 on 3/2009. How was that 14 year return?
7.8%
And how many investors bought at Dow 6,000 and sold at 6,469 in 3/2009? Two?
Can you say "cherry picking"?
"cherry picking"?
Troll cliché alert.....
It's not a cliche. It's a description of one of your favorite techniques for fear mongering. If you don't like being called a cherry picker, then stop doing it.
So sorry. Please don't call me a "cherry picker."
Mommy, some troll is calling me a "cherry picker."
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Big Dog Investments wrote:I propose another DGTD prediction contest: PREDICT THE CORRECTION.
Here are the rules:
1) Give the exact date that the Dow will reach 10% below its high.
2) Your prediction must be made before the Dow has fallen 3% from its high.
Closest to the actual date wins with the winner receiving one genuine "attaboy" as prize.
Will it happen before the end of 2016? After the inauguration? Groundhog Day?
Let's hear what you think.
So far our prediction pool looks like this:
Big: January 13, 2017
agip: March 4, 2017
Let me know if I missed anyone. It's not too late to join the fun. Step up and take a chance.
Current data (as of 12/13/16):
Dow high...19,953.75
Prediction goal...17,958.37
Cut off number...19,355.14 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)
mellon wrote:
Big Dog Investments wrote:So far our prediction pool looks like this:
Big: January 13, 2017
agip: March 4, 2017
Let me know if I missed anyone. It's not too late to join the fun. Step up and take a chance.
Current data (as of 12/13/16):
Dow high...19,953.75
Prediction goal...17,958.37
Cut off number...19,355.14 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)
Sorry about that!
Prediction - I'm 65 years old in excellent health.
It won't happen before i die.
I will make sure my wife post on here when I pass away.
She's 18 years younger than me so she should be around.
Quote of the Day wrote:
Record low dividend yields and record high market-to-book ratios in recent months have led many market watchers to conclude that these indicators now behave differently from how they have in the past. This paper examines the relationship between traditional market indicators and stock performance, and then addresses two popular claims that the meaning of these indicators has changed in recent years....We conclude that, even after adjusting for these factors, the current level of market indicators is a cause for concern.
-- New York Fed
So it appears that Igy was right after all. It really is no different this time. It's just like 1995 when the "experts" warned of impending doom because of high valuations only to see the Dow more than triple in value over the next 21 years. It's deja vu all over again!
Thanks for noticing me.....
well that was awful
bonds got torn and shredded again
my conservative clients are taking some hits here.
but bonds in general are still up for the year so not a tragedy
agip,
Yes, but if interest rates head significantly higher stocks will get shredded, bonds will gain flows. It was and remains a fiction that a handoff to higher growth can be accomplished without impacting rates, the economy and markets. The foundation of the recovery has been built on liquidity and low rates. That said, floating rate debt (senior loans, bank loans) have done very well since the election.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
Yes, but if interest rates head significantly higher stocks will get shredded, bonds will gain flows. It was and remains a fiction that a handoff to higher growth can be accomplished without impacting rates, the economy and markets. The foundation of the recovery has been built on liquidity and low rates. That said, floating rate debt (senior loans, bank loans) have done very well since the election.
Igy
stocks do fine during periods of rising rates
I do have a lot of floating rate, but that's feeling like a crowded trade right now...and the credit quality is generally low.
That's a mighty big "if."
agip,
Yes, historically because it is reflective of higher growth. GDP tracking under 2% with rising rates, we'll see. Definitely a negative for housing, autos and stock buy backs.
Hey I signed up for a 2 mile road race Saturday. We are expecting single digit temperatures. Thought I would man-up to the challenge.
Igy
I am gordeon
I used to be Igy
gordeon wrote:
I used to be Igy
Knot