Down goes the Dow

Flagpole first claims that nobody can time the market but then brags about buying low. Nice contradiction. If he didn't time the market, he would have been fully invested when it was high.

Idaho is right in the middle of being dependent on federal largesse.

It's certainly no powerhouse, cash-exporting blue state, but it's not a typically dependent red state either.

agip wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

It was Trump who started the “enhanced unemployment and stimulus payments”. Maybe if he had let more migrants into the country, there wouldn’t be as much of a labor shortage.

$11/hour equates to an annual gross income of about $22,000 for a full time worker. I can only imagine what it would be after taxes are withdrawn. But Igy thinks that “is a decent starting wage in Boise”. No wonder most of the welfare goes to red states.

Idaho is right in the middle of being dependent on federal largesse.

It's certainly no powerhouse, cash-exporting blue state, but it's not a typically dependent red state either.

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-least-dependent-on-the-federal-government/2700

one of the many wonders and weirdnesses of US politics is that the Dems allow the red states to perpetuate the myth that blue states suck up money from the red states. I suspect most Dems even believe that.

Imagine if you will a Dem party that weaponized this problem like the Rs weaponize every chance to divide and anger. Imagine if a Dem campaigned on the promise to stop the red states from taking more than their share of federal money. It would work, it would get votes, but the Dems won't do it. Because they don't play hardball like that and because blue staters tend to want to help people, not blame them for being poor.

Tesla is a great brand and the products seem to be very good, but good lord the stock is stupid.

And the financial engineering is dubious.

WSJ:

Tesla didn’t exactly earn its record profit from selling cars, however. The company said that it sold some of the $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin that it purchased in February, contributing $101 million to the bottom line. That is nearly a fourth of its total profit.

What is more, sales of regulatory credits to other auto makers to help them meet emissions mandates, which carry a 100% profit margin, reached $518 million. That accounts for nearly 100% of Tesla’s $533 million in pretax income. Those two helping hands helped avert red ink.

Shares traded slightly lower in after-hours trading on Monday, and the air has come ever so slightly out of Tesla’s stratospheric stock price. Shares are down about 16% from the peak in early January, but Tesla’s market value still tops $700 billion, or more than five times the combined value of Ford and General Motors. Ford sold more than half a million cars in the first quarter in the U.S., more than double Tesla’s world-wide total. If Tesla extended its first-quarter results for the next three quarters, the stock would trade at about 200 times this year’s adjusted earnings.

Long pole wrote:

Flagpole first claims that nobody can time the market but then brags about buying low. Nice contradiction. If he didn't time the market, he would have been fully invested when it was high.

Um...huh???

I do NOT time the market. Timing the market involves buying AND selling. I do not do that. I ONLY buy.

I have put money in twice monthly since 1989 and have NEVER missed putting money in. The money I have put in ranges from 5% of my income (when we had our first child and my wife stopped working..that lasted just about a year though even though she still stayed home...I just made more money, and we budgeted so we could invest more) to 50% of our household income (first 7 years of our marriage).

I have regular amounts that I put in regardless of how the market does...this is set up automatically, so I don't even need to pay attention or do anything. Now, on the rare occasion that there is a market correction or even a worse pullback, if I have extra money just sitting there that I don't have an immediate need for, I will, and have, put extra into the market then.

Sorry, but that's not timing the market.

Flagpole, I am too an ardent follower of the buy-and-hold philosophy and have done quite well but am curious if you have target retirement funds that converts to a more conservative portfolio as you approach your retirement date or you just manually adjust your portfolio.

1) I had enough money to retire when the Dow hit 22,000. That was my retirement target amount. My wife and I have kept working, because we do get some satisfaction out of it, but I will be done completely now in about a year, but she wants to keep her college professor gig for another 6 years. Professor gigs are pretty sweet if you can score one...not as in making a ton of money, but the hours are good, and it's enjoyable if you enjoy teaching, especially if you enjoy teaching relatively smart adults.

2) I gave you #1 to let you understand where my situation is. As I'm not just barely going to be able to retire, it doesn't really matter what I do with my portfolio from here on out. I have zero debt including a paid-for house. If we were to take 4% of our retirement money today, we would have a bigger income than at any time working, and we don't plan to take from it until my wife retires in 6 years.

3) BUT, I have had a plan for the last 20 years that I am going to stick to. I am not a fan of bonds, so I am not going that route. I will keep my money invested in moderate to aggressive growth stocks well diversified including about 25% in international stocks. When my wife retires for good in 6 years, she will be 60, and I will be 61. At that time we will have 3 YEARS of expenses saved in a liquid account (we already have this), and we will use that money if necessary to pay expenses if the market goes down a lot.

At this point, the amount of money we gain/save is just either money we can donate to charity or give to the kids. This is one of the reasons I don't post much in this thread anymore...it's just not as important to me as it once was. The hay is in the barn.

whoops

Warren Buffett has a storied history with airline stocks, once quipping, "I am Warren and I am an aeroholic." But the spectacular returns for the industry over the last year are casting a dark cloud on Berkshire Hathaway's decision to dump all of its airline holdings in May 2020 as prices were bottoming. Berkshire loaded up on stock of the four major U.S. carriers in 2016.

At the 2020 Berkshire annual shareholders meeting, Buffett said he'd spent $7 billion to $8 billion amassing stakes in Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines and Southwest Airlines. He didn't comment on the exit prices except to say, "We did not take out anything like $7 [billion] or $8 billion." This contributed to Berkshire's massive $50 billion loss in the first quarter of 2020.

Since then the stocks have taken off, with American and Southwest up over 80% since their May 25, 2020 bottom, while United and Delta are up about 70%. Measuring gains from the May 25, 2020 trough of all four airlines produces even more spectacular results. United was up over 200% over the period, while American was up 190%.

looks like

MSFT bad

Goog: great

SBUX: bad

overall neutral

agip wrote:

looks like

MSFT bad

Goog: great

SBUX: bad

overall neutral

funny how the tech ETFs dropped on the news, though, as if MSFT is more heavily weighted than GOOG.

I've got more of the GOOG than MSFT, but the hit to tech ETFs just about zero's out the news.

Do you realize how incredibly silly you sound? Get your head out of CNN’s a** and think for a change.

Anyhow, enjoy it while it lasts. Your heroes are busy killing babies, undermining the social fabric of the nation, working to get Iran a nuclear weapon, sowing racial hatred, punishing hard work, encouraging illicit behavior, etc.

Meh, this was talked about last year when he got rid of his airlines positions. Yes, everyone, even Buffet knew airlines would bounce back. But look at his usual investing timeline - it's between 25 years and forever. He likes consistent value stocks, not something that takes an enormous dump every 5-10 years, which is what airlines do.

but that very quote I pasted says Buffet *likes* airlines. Despite their regular dumpage. Seems there's a contradiction there somewhere,

Maybe buffet's quote is self-deprecating -that he knows he buys airlines out of love, not wisdom.

all time high SP500

Almost time for FOMC release ( 2 PM EDT )

https://twitter.com/lebas_janney/status/1387031791207321607

https://twitter.com/R_Perli/status/1387419354632003585

Remember when Buffet pledged to give away his fortune.

Sort of.

"More than 99% of my wealth will go to philanthropy during my lifetime or at death."

Note how he included "at death" so he can give away nothing at all during his life and, by strict interpretation, not be called a liar? Of course he is a liar by including the phrase "during my lifetime" in his claim.

Let's see how he has done, keeping in mind he is currently 90 years old.

He is now worth more than $100 billion.

Seems he better get going on his pledge

52 week high for the NAV of short term TIPS etfs.

the concept of 52 week highs for bond ETFs is a little crooked because they pay out NAV every month, but pretty remarkable for these funds to hit new highs even as bonds have cratered this year.

Year to date:

Generic bonds -2.91%

Generic short term bonds -0.5%

Short term TIPS: +1.8%

That's a huge swing and shows how much inflation expectations are building in. Shows how active asset allocation can work too.

BTW, if you want real inflation protection in bonds, buy short term TIPS, not inter or LT TIPS. The longer term bonds are affected more by interest rate swings than inflation changes. Short term TIPS are much more affected by actual inflation, and less by changes in interest rates.

I'll brag a little on this one - STPZ is my third biggest holding in my practice. I moved heavily into it when the gummint started throwing money from choppers last year. Worked very well.

Facebook blowout quarter up 5% after the close

Looks like Ford crashed.

Apple earnings announcement after the bell.

That is big.

They always seem to announce about a half hour after close, maybe plus a few minutes.