Down goes the Dow

the key based on what i've read is if the raise of interest rates is due to stronger GDP growth, that's bullish, and if due to higher inflationary causes like wages, that's more worrisome. Wage growth has not been that good, but certainly GDP and economy have been strong.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Has no relevance at all as I pointed out. Ignorant comments that of course you can’t understand. About as relevant as “you will run faster if you run more, run faster and don’t get hurt.” So go back to football where you belong.

Yes you pointed that out, but unlike me, you failed to explain why. An analogy is not an explanation.

FYI, I despise football.

Gruntz wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Has no relevance at all as I pointed out. Ignorant comments that of course you can’t understand. About as relevant as “you will run faster if you run more, run faster and don’t get hurt.” So go back to football where you belong.

Yes you pointed that out, but unlike me, you failed to explain why. An analogy is not an explanation.

FYI, I despise football.

You explained nothing other than to note what is today and expect to be tomorrow.

Oh, you’re not the guy that worships Tom Brady?

seattle prattle wrote:

the key based on what i've read is if the raise of interest rates is due to stronger GDP growth, that's bullish, and if due to higher inflationary causes like wages, that's more worrisome. Wage growth has not been that good, but certainly GDP and economy have been strong.

Unfortunately another tale told to support the “buy stocks at any price” meme. Here is your GDP growth:

Higher interest rates are more related to Fed hikes and Fed balance sheet reduction. If the Japanese and European central banks were buying fewer bonds the rates would be even higher. Both by the way have signaled a tappering of their programs.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

Yes you pointed that out, but unlike me, you failed to explain why. An analogy is not an explanation.

FYI, I despise football.

You explained nothing other than to note what is today and expect to be tomorrow.

Oh, you’re not the guy that worships Tom Brady?

You must have me confused with someone else. I noted nothing of the sort. Rather, I pointed out why Hussman should be ignored.

I hate Tom Brady. Pansy boy.

Do you ever have a legitimate counter argument, or do you strictly rely on fabrication?

No, you base ignoring Hussman on his recent fund performance, yet ignore he had top performances in each of the two last bear markets. Besides his well documented research is referenced by many. Of course those who would like you to buy stocks at any price come up with largely he-b*tch criticism. I would much rather have my money invested with Hussman at this stage of the market cycle. But hey we’ll see how it works out.

I really have no real opinion on Tom Brady, just another sports hero to many.

I am off to take the family out to an early mother’s day dinner. So good night.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No, you base ignoring Hussman on his recent fund performance, yet ignore he had top performances in each of the two last bear markets. Besides his well documented research is referenced by many. Of course those who would like you to buy stocks at any price come up with largely he-b*tch criticism. I would much rather have my money invested with Hussman at this stage of the market cycle. But hey we’ll see how it works out.

I really have no real opinion on Tom Brady, just another sports hero to many.

I am off to take the family out to an early mother’s day dinner. So good night.

As you say: "...I would much rather have my money invested with Hussman at this stage of the market cycle..." That's the crux of the issue in most of our minds. What stage of the market cycle? Are we currently on the precipice of a 60% downturn? And if so, why was that prediction made 3-1/2 years ago?

Allow me to say, we have no f-ng idea. Sure, maybe a little sell-off since there is some legitimacy to this concern. That's probably healthy regardless even if it isn't true. But we had no idea then and we have no idea now. And if we did, why is the timing so bad?

Hence, many herein heed the buy and hold advice of the long term investor.

On a more important note, Hope you enjoy your dinner, Igy, with family and those that matter most. I hope your health is continuing to improve. Take care and enjoy your weekend.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No, you base ignoring Hussman on his recent fund performance, yet ignore he had top performances in each of the two last bear markets. Besides his well documented research is referenced by many. Of course those who would like you to buy stocks at any price come up with largely he-b*tch criticism. I would much rather have my money invested with Hussman at this stage of the market cycle. But hey we’ll see how it works out.

I really have no real opinion on Tom Brady, just another sports hero to many.

I am off to take the family out to an early mother’s day dinner. So good night.

By “top performances” you mean he lost less than others. Still a loser and a big one when the market is up.

And again your post references a complete fabrication about me. Just stick to the facts please.

Enjoy your dinner. I recommend the rib-eye.

Seattle,

One point as you know I disagree, yes we do have an idea valuations over 130 years say poor market returns over the next 10-12 years.

I am fortunate to have a very nice family. We pick a restaurant on the usual eat out holidays. The treatments are going well. The previous week had several rough days. Now I am in the good period building up to my fifth infusion Thursday. So far so good.

Igy

Gruntz,

Hard to stick to the facts when there are so few.

I opted for the Mediterraneo (spinach pasta, capers, artichoke hearts, tossed in olive oil). The youngsters all got various steaks; I don’t believe ribeye was on the enu.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Big Dog Investments wrote:

My FB buy is up over 3% in less than a week. Thanks for the “tip.”

Sure, let’s keep an eye on it over the next month and report back.

One month later it’s up almost 18%. Thanks for asking.

Good job, check back in three months.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good job, check back in three months.

Yes! You better bail.

We know his projections happen within a short time frame.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good job, check back in three months.

I was wondering how long you’d defray this time. Let’s be honest...you can’t pick stocks to save your life.

Big Dog Investments wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Good job, check back in three months.

I was wondering how long you’d defray this time. Let’s be honest...you can’t pick stocks to save your life.

First I don’t pick stocks. Second you believe all this trading will result in durable returns. I believe you are spending a lot of time moving money around for nothing.

Pertaining to the FB buy a month ago, I think the instructive point here is that by buying on the dip, he was able to lock in a price that hadn't been that low since July 17, 2017. That means he was able to lock in a price that hasn't been that low in almost a year!

And if there was any question, it's gone up a hefty bit since then.

Clearly, a buy on the dip swing trade that worked.

Of course, if we are on the cusp of a calamitous 60% drop, he would either need to sell and take some profits or be willing to ride it out. But that is a big "if".

For what it's worth, i started buying Netflix a year or two ago on just such a dip, when i think it was trading for about $89. It turned around within a few dollars of that and started back on a tear upwards. I swallowed hard on the way up and bought a few more times, each time realizing it was half crazy to be buying at those valuations and prices. But damn if it hasn't paid off far beyond my expectations.

I don’t think it is a “big if, “ and when it comes most will be totally unprepared. Of course I have no reason to wish anything but the best for all, but frankly this trading behavior is just one example of people wanting something for nothing. That usually is not the way it works for most. But right now we have a society that is betting their future on such thinking. OK.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Big Dog Investments wrote:

I was wondering how long you’d defray this time. Let’s be honest...you can’t pick stocks to save your life.

First I don’t pick stocks. Second you believe all this trading will result in durable returns. I believe you are spending a lot of time moving money around for nothing.

First, I know you don’t pick stocks. You’ve admitted to paying someone else to do it for you. Given your record, that’s a smart move.

Second, you have no idea what I believe, so stop trying to portray me as something I am not.

Big Dog Investments wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

First I don’t pick stocks. Second you believe all this trading will result in durable returns. I believe you are spending a lot of time moving money around for nothing.

First, I know you don’t pick stocks. You’ve admitted to paying someone else to do it for you. Given your record, that’s a smart move.

Second, you have no idea what I believe, so stop trying to portray me as something I am not.

That last statement is rather silly since you have certainly have posted what you believe.