2012 NCAA DMR predictions pre-season

Texas: Joe stillin, 400 guy, kyle thompson, merber

Are there any teams with two 3:36 guys?

Wisconsin will have a very good team. They ran 9:30 last year, but had a bit of trouble at nationals.

Austin Mudd 1:47/3:40

Zach Mellon 1:47/4:03 mile

Alex Hatz 3:58 mile

Rob Finnerty 3:38

Reed Connor 3:40

They have a lot of options and interchangeable legs.

Villanova, purease!! The Cats are stacked in the mid-d events this year. Potential cast members include:

Sam McEntee - 3:36 1500m

Jordy Williamz - 3:36 1500m

Sam Ellison - 1:47 800m

Chris Fitzsimmons - 1:48 800m

They lack an elite 400m guy, but that won't hurt them too much. Should be a very fast DMR for Nova...

Texas & Princeton

Stilin (3:39.42)

Murphy (48.01)

Thompson (1:48.14)

Merber (3:35.59)

Williams (1:49.53/3:44.97)

Hopkins (46.23)

Dinkins (1:48.26)

Callahan (3:58.76)

Mad I son wrote:

Wisconsin will have a very good team. They ran 9:30 last year, but had a bit of trouble at nationals.

Austin Mudd 1:47/3:40

Zach Mellon 1:47/4:03 mile

Alex Hatz 3:58 mile

Rob Finnerty 3:38

Reed Connor 3:40

They have a lot of options and interchangeable legs.

There could be some redshirts in there. Connor, Hatz and Mellon are 1/2, 2/3 and 1/2 for indoor/outdoor eligibility, so they could try to even that out a little.

They do have a legit 46 400 guy.

Man, I didn't even look at Wisco. I guess for every top team it all dpends on who decides to run open events.

Every year we see this is just a 1600m race. There can be a lot of variability in the PR's of the first three legs between teams and we always see it come back to a close race on the 1600. Matchups on the early legs make very little difference. Who has solid utility guys for the 12/4/8 legs and the best anchor? That team will likely win.

thisguy, you are absolutely correct. All this thread will turn into is teams shamelessly promoting themselves, yet getting destroyed at NCAAs, per usual.

It all comes down to the anchor, as long as you have the 3 legs that can keep you close. Very few would have predicted Notre Dame last year, but Shawel ran an incredbile first leg, the next 2 legs kept them in it and Rae finished it off.

Look at the consistent performers, they will continue to get it done.

My early picks (No particular order)

Indiana (Bayer is incredibly consistent and can compete when it counts, plus added Lance Roller)

Tulsa (O'Hare, enough said)

Oklahoma (Surely Masters or Casey has to have a big race at some point right?)

Oklahoma State (IF they anchor Farrell, has deceptive speed)

Notre Dame (Still have J Rae on anchor)

Wisconsin (Finnerty is coming on late in his career, has the other legs to put him in front)

Just a few teams I feel have the upper hand.

Villanova has the pieces but don't race well at Nats, Texas has been talked about for years but has yet to get it done when needed (a.ka. Merber)

Princeton might contend but I will be very interested to see Vig with this group

Penn State has to be in the conversation

Ricky West (1:46), Loxsom (1:45), Watkins (1:49/4:07), Kidder (4:03), Creese (3:58) along with their two 45 second quarter milers in Gheret and Bennett-Green

Considering Mac Fleet ran XC's I assume he's healthy. I don't expect him to be anywhere near where he was as a freshman, but if he is, having Fleet and Greer on the same team for the Ducks could be dangerous.

With Oklahoma's two big guns you'd think it would be theirs to lose. Farell does have deceptive speed, but I don't see him kicking down the likes of Bayer in a 1600. Unless I'm missing someone I don't see OSU contending at all.

You are a little late for 2012 predictions.

Be happy to give you the results, may help with your "2012" predictions. HAHAHAHA!

That may be true some of the time. However, when you get a couple of schools that have very good 800 and 1200 guys (e.g., Texas), then there is a big gap that either cannot be made up or is made up at the expense of a finish, so it looks closer than it is. If there are a couple of teams pushing each other and drafting with each other coming out of the 1200

A few of these teams have really good mid-D guys. If they get a 2:50-low and 1:46-flat leg with a very solid sub-4 guy (e.g., 3:38 1500) you could see a 9:22 that would blitz the field.

It might make for interesting qualifying with the larger differentials on track-adjustment factors.

Beans and Cornbread wrote:

It all comes down to the anchor, as long as you have the 3 legs that can keep you close. Very few would have predicted Notre Dame last year, but Shawel ran an incredbile first leg, the next 2 legs kept them in it and Rae finished it off.

Yeah, it all comes down to the anchor, but then you throw in a rather large caveat.

Rae ran the 4th fastest 1600 last year, but his team was in 3rd when he got the stick, just .6 seconds out of 1st. The three guys who ran faster than Rae -- Batty, Lelei and Bayer, all ran WAY faster, but their teams were well back through three legs. BYU was 3.3 seconds back (7th), Texas A&M was 4.2 seconds back (9th) and Indiana was 2.0 seconds back (6th).

To win the DMR you absolutely have to have a top quality 1600 guy. But having a top quality 1600 guy doesn't mean jack if the first three guys don't get him into position. Lelei's 3:58.67 moved Texas A&M from 8th to 7th.

The first three legs matter. A lot. It does NOT just come down to the 1600 guy.

There are 9:22-type teams on paper every other year (it seems like), but you never seem them blitz the field. It almost always ends up tactical on the anchor.

Oregon has to be the team to beat on both the Mens and Womens side in this event. Go Ducks

I'll go out on a limb and give my WAY TOO EARLY predictions

2013 NCAA Indoor DMR

1) Indiana (Bayer is one tough cookie, plus ran great on DMR in past, AND Lance Roller on the 8 leg)

2) Notre Dame (Rae should be set for a huge Indoor adter disappointing XC season, great MD school)

3) Wisconsin (Has possibly best on paper team, Finnerty looked great this Fall)

4) Tulsa (Wonder if they have other 3 legs, great XC finish, plus O'Hare on anchor

5) Oklahoma (Great 4 legs, no dominant anchor though)

6) Villanova (See how they mesh after sub-par XC, should have best 1200 leg though)

7) Oregon (As mentioned, if Fleet returns, watch out)

8) Texas (Merber has yet to perform on big stage but should have other legs covered pretty well)

Thoughts? Opinions? Criticisms? Hear everyone else's early thoughts

Curious as to what Oregon might have so I did a web search. 400 - Mike Berry-44.91 (43:8+ relay leg at world champs); 800 - Elijah Greer - 1:45.06 (picked by T&FN to win open 800); Trevor Dunbar 1500 - 3:40.06: Mac Fleet-3:57 mile/3:43 1500 IF they run to potential, they could be a player in the DMR

From the sidelines wrote:

Curious as to what Oregon might have so I did a web search. 400 - Mike Berry-44.91 (43:8+ relay leg at world champs); 800 - Elijah Greer - 1:45.06 (picked by T&FN to win open 800); Trevor Dunbar 1500 - 3:40.06: Mac Fleet-3:57 mile/3:43 1500 IF they run to potential, they could be a player in the DMR

Except that Dunbar will be running the 5K, which takes place right before the DMR.

Indiana should win this. Their 1200 just needs to run his @ss off to keep them up front, the 400 leg doesn't mean anything unless you drop the baton or fall, and they have the best last two legs of anyone.