Men's 5000m predictions at Daegu.

Lagat

Farah

Solinsky

Kipchoge

T Bekele

Merga

Rupp

10K

Bekele

Farah

Rupp

Tadese

Not sure how much I believe this, but its what I would like to see and is possible, though not probable.

Solinsky has shown he can kick with the best. Last year when Merga was a beast (better then this year) Solinsky hung pretty well in a kick in his last race. This year Lagat just got him at USAs in a kick. Rupp won't beat Solinsky after racing a 10k, nor will he have the legs to kick with Kipchoge, Bekele and Merga. Fresh maybe, but not after his new AR 3rd-4th place showing in the 10k.

Clearly Rupp's path to a medal in the 10k becomes a lot easier if Bekele skips worlds... which I bet he does. I can't imagine he runs worlds as his first race in 2 years.

All I have to say is "The master once again..."

I thought KB was just running the 5k in day goo

WiT-Not ordered but on podium wrote:

5000

Vincent Chepkok (Kenya)

Imane Merga (Ethiopia)

Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya)

10,000

Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia)

Zersenay Tadese (Eritrea)

Mo Farah (Great Britain)

edit these are T&FN picks from earlier this month not WiTs sorry

I might argue that this is the deepest 5000m world championship since 2003.

There is probably ten guys with a chance to win. (4 with a real good chance)

I could see Solinsky being in 12:53 shape and getting eighth.

excuse if posted beforehttp://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/display-article?arId=61044

Musings On Sub-12:50s In The 5000

(by "Master Po")

Since 1995, when we saw the first sub-12:50, in sixteen seasons through 2010, we have seen just fifteen 5000m races that have produced a sub-12:50. That's the first degree of specialness -- only about one per season. Moreover, as Alan Shank points out above, none since 2007.

But wait, there's more...

Only 3 times has a sub-12:50 ever been done without Bekele (5 winners), Geb (4 winners), or Komen (3 winners) leading the way:

rare birds these sub 12:50 races

will this become #16?

As the drug testing gets better the birds become rarer.

Solinsky DNF

with an even pace, Moh Fara can run close to 12.42.

I think Farah gets a silver in the 5k. Lagat, the old maestro, will take gold with Kipchoge in 3rd.

In the 10k I have a funny feeling Bekele will destroy all again with Tadesse a valiant second and Mo 3rd. Should both be some cracking races though.

Chepkok is not even running, get your facts right.

1-Gebremeskel

2-Farah

3-Lagat

Don’t forget that, Gebremeskel has already beaten Farah with only one shoe on.

Athlete X wrote:

Chepkok is not even running, get your facts right.

1-Gebremeskel

2-Farah

3-Lagat

Don’t forget that, Gebremeskel has already beaten Farah with only one shoe on.

Agree with this prediction!

LAGAT.

Also, I assume Farah is running the 10k as well, right?

Gold - Farah

Silver - Rupp

Bronze - Solinsky

Jesus Espana FTW by 10 seconds.

It's a championship race so I'd be surprised if we saw anything in the low 12:50s. I bet they'll reel off a bunch of 65s and go through 3200 somewhere around 8:40. Around 4 laps left someone will throw in a 61-2 and break up the field. With around 1000 left there will be another surge, maybe by Rupp or Farah, and we'll be left with 4 or 5 medal contenders. I'd be surprised if Lagat and Farah were not in this breakaway group. If the race goes this way I think Farah wins, Rupp is 3rd or 4th, Lagat is 2nd or 3rd. Winning time around 13:10. I have no idea where Solinsky will be in any scenario because he's suddenly become a headcase.

If it's more of a classic sit and kick race, with a winning time closer to 13:20 and 5 guys in medal contention on the final straightaway, I think Rupp and Solinsky's chances decline significantly. Farah is hurt by this second scenario as well but I'd still peg him as the favorite. No surprise, I think Lagat is the best bet to medal among the Americans. He has better PRs but more importantly he's shown he can handle any kind of race. I don't think Rupp and Solinsky are nearly as good when the pace is all over the place.

I think the only chance of KB running the 5k is if he wins the 10k and feels like he has nothing to lose. I think he's enough of an aerobic monster to win a WC 10k after a long layoff but I think he'd need more time/races to get up to speed for the 5k. In general the 5k requires more sharpness because more of the best runners concentrate on it, only jumping in 10ks occasionally.

Lagat to win. We've seen nothing from Kenyans; Ethiopians have been disappointing.......and Farah will be tired from 10k and less suited to a 13:30 type race. He'll lead it out last 600 after Solinsky/Koech/Kipchoge have led and Lagat (who will be in better shape than in Monaco while Farah will not) will go past with 100 to go (like Pre 2M).

As great as Bekele was, he hasn't shown any form in over a year. Yet most people are suggesting he's a medal contender!?

As far as I'm aware he hasn't even run a race this year, and it's only 4 or so weeks to Daegu.

I personally don't think he'll even show at the worlds. If he runs a few races between now and then he might get back to something like his old self, but if he goes straight to the Worlds and wins, then I think something is seriously amiss.

Kipchoge,

Farah,

Alamirew

Yeah, Solinsky was such a head case running 3:58 for the last 1600 at USAs. Seriously people, everyone is over thinking his 2 bad races in the last 2 years. It just seems like a big deal because he races so sparingly. He'll be ready to roll.