Realized I'd better paste it:
All true, but the difference between a 2:06 marathon and a 2:20 is not comparable to that between a 3:10 and a 3:24. Using percentile differences rather than arithmetic ones (a better but imperfect translation), adding 50 percent to each of these times yields 3:09 and 3:30. So, on this basis, tightening the fastest Boston Q-time for women by 10 minutes would make sense.
But, are 2:06 and 2:20 physiologically similar times for men and women? One way to judge this is to look at the world records for men and women: 2:03:59 and 2:15:25, respectively. That’s a difference of 9.2 percent, which would, on the surface, make a 3:10 for men equivalent to a 3:27:30 for women. Were the Boston Athletic Association to impose a tightening of its standards of this magnitude today — halving the 15.8 percent time gap in place at the moment — the percentage of women finishers in its 26.2-mile juggernaut would drop from the 42 percent mentioned in the WSJ article to approximately diddly-squat, give or take (or at least considerably less).
One thing to think about, though, is that the women’s world-record holder is an outlier of unfathomable magnitude. Paula Radcliffe of England has run the three fastest women’s times in history and is an astonishing 3:22 faster than the next-fastest woman, Catherine Ndereba of Kenya, who herself is the only woman besides Radcliffe with more than one sub-2:20 finish to her credit (nine names currently occupy that list). So, a statistician may feel justified in tossing Radcliffe and perhaps even Ndereba from any pertinent analyses.
To an undeniable extent, however, this is merely begging the question (in the original, logical sense, not the way the popular press likes to use it). That is, throwing out outliers only seems to assume the putative conclusion of the “keep the gap wide” side. Except for the those responsible for closing the gap, women just aren’t there yet and need more time to close the gap.
But there’s more to the story. A glance at the men’s and women’s all-time lists reveals something at least as striking: While Radcliffe enjoys a gulf of 2.5 percent over Ndereba with her 3:22 cushion, that same percentile gap on the men’s side — extending to 2:07:04 — includes 73 men. The world record-holder for a 10-year period ending a dozen years ago, Belayneh Dinsamo, is not among the top 50 of these. Even throwing out the very best of the best and including times starting at 2:05:00 for men and 2:20:00 for women, the number of men sitting in the fastest three-minute window (2:05:00 through 2:07:59) stands at 154, while the number of women in the corresponding window is 31.