NCAA 2010 XC- Top 10 RANK EM

1. NAU - On paper they look to be the favorite. Their front two got 2nd and 5th last year, so assuming Chipangama returns to form, they have two very short sticks up front, plus three guys who ran sub-29 in track. For some reason I'm uneasy picking them to win it, but they've straight up got better and more reliable personnel than any other team.

2. Oregon - While they return four of their top 5 and have plenty of depth, it took a huge race for them to get second last year, and the way Puskedra has performed in the last year I'm not sure he and Centrowitz make for reliable enough front runners for me to pick them for the title. Still very much winnable for them though if Puskedra is in his best form and their pack comes up big.

3. Stanford - Will rebound from last year, having a lot more experience and a little more humility. They didn't so much screw up their peak (their best race was 9 days before nationals at regionals), they just completely blew up when it counted most. Would not be surprised at all if they won it, but I think they'll underachieve just a little and finish third.

4. Colorado - Return top 6 from 6th place team, plus they're damn good at peaking. Lack of a front runner will hurt them though (top guy last year was 44th), so I don't think they have much of a shot of winning unless someone really develops this season and/or their pack runs out of their minds at nationals.

5. OSU - Could have a dirty front 3 if everyone is in good form, but thats a big 'if' with Fernandez and Mecheso, and their 4,5 guys are too big of a question mark at this point. If a couple guys step up they definitely have the tools to repeat, but I doubt it will happen.

6. Iona - Return everyone from an 8th place team

7. Oklahoma - Seem to be an up and coming program. Return everyone from a 12th place team last year.

8. Arkansas - I dont know what the hell happened last year, but with Haile, Ulrey and some guys who've run well in track they should definitely be top 10. Could be a lot higher too if they have a big race.

9. Wisconsin - Return 4 of their top 5, not sure who they have beyond that.

10. Portland - A young team and Dunbar should improve a lot, which will help, but they just don't have the depth to be able to do much more than squeak into the top 10.

Ralphy wrote:

Will IU win the Big 10?

The Big Ten Meet is at Wisconsin - I do not think that they are planning on stopping their title streak at 11, but of course that is why they run the race.

I think Ahmed will likely win conference and place top 10 NCAA. Peacock should be healthy, and Connor, Darling, Finnerty, Krause and Shields have all run well at times. The next four could also be there and there are some others I do not really know that are Wisconsin guys like Hucke and Brice. This is a young team with only one senior (Krause is a REALLY smart Junior).

Here is the likely top Wisconsin guys:

Ahmed, Mohammed SO St. Catharines, Ontario

Connor, Reed SO Houston, Texas

Darling, Maverick RS SO Ovid, Mich.

Finnerty, Rob RS SO Burnsville, Minn.

Krause, Elliot JR Appleton, Wis.

Peacock, Landon RS SR Morley, Mich.

Shields, Drew RS FR Fishers, Ind.

Berman, Neal RS FR Philadelphia, Penn.

Brill, Alex RS FR Madison, Wis.

Hatz, Alexander FR Manilius, N.Y.

Thomas, Phil RS JR Greendale, Wis.

Here is the likely top Wisconsin guys:

Ahmed, Mohammed SO 4th, almost 3rd NCAA 10,000 first frosh '09

Connor, Reed SO 8:03i, 4th Big 10 3000

Darling, Maverick RS SO 4th Big 10 '09 24:03 @ Wisc Invite, 13:49; 2nd Big 10 Indoor, 8:00i 3000

Finnerty, Rob RS SO 3:42.16/3:42.19/3:43.02 1500, now over injuries

Krause, Elliot JR 29:14 @ Big 10/4th; 2nd Big 10 XC (ahead of Ahmed)

Peacock, Landon RS SR 29:15, 13:54; 21st 2008 NCAA

Shields, Drew RS FR 8:55 Steeple

I think the mountain west will show up a few larger conferences this year. For starters, I can't believe non of you have mentioned New Mexico in top 10? They won't win but they will be up there! Apparently they have another Kenyan to replace Kirwa. At NCAAs David Bishop was ill and Keith Gerrard ran through an injury all season. They return 3km all-american Rory Fraser and 14min02 freshman Ross Millington as well as a rare American lobo in ND transfer Brock Hagerman. Top 6.

Add to that, that the Lobos aren't even the best in their conference, BYU Cougs consistently beats them and return Batty, Ogden and a few guys from Missions. Top 4.

Stanford will win.

Everyone else will lose.

If that isn't obvious to you...

predicciones wrote:

7. Oklahoma - Seem to be an up and coming program. Return everyone from a 12th place team last year.

And added some serious depth this year.

And to think that this program was awful not that long ago.

David McCarthy is going back to Providence. He'll be a contender and with Lee Carey can help PC place high.