NCAA men's individual favorites and their odds

forest wrote:

hmmmmmmm wrote:

rohatinsky was pretty unexpected

expected to be a top 10 guy but i dont think anybody not on byus team picked him to win

but that was a weaker field, with nobody on the level of chelenga and derrick, therefore much more prone to an upset. And, if that is the only true upset of the last 10 years that means the field deserves 10% odds - (1upset/10yearsx100=10%)

That Solinsky guy was a heavy favorite to win in 2006. Something about Lyme disease or something brought him down. That McDougal guy was pretty good, too.

cheese wagon wrote:

That Solinsky guy was a heavy favorite to win in 2006. Something about Lyme disease or something brought him down.

But we're not talking about one favorite, we've identified four big guns. What, do you think all four are going to be hit with Lyme Disease? The odds of that happening are much less than the 10% being assigned to the field.

hmmmmmmm wrote:

rohatinsky was pretty unexpected

expected to be a top 10 guy but i dont think anybody not on byus team picked him to win

Yes and no.

He didn't run at Pre-Nationals or any big invitationals like Paul Short that year, but when he did run he was undefeated.

- He won BYU's home meet on 9/9 - small meet

- Won Bill Dellinger Invitational on 9/29 - medium size meet, all the Oregon guys including Rupp were there but they're weren't OREGON and RUPP yet

- Won MWC Championship on 10/28 - mid-size conference, no major competition for him

- Won NCAA Regionals on 11/11 - first win that really put him on the map as a contender

Plus the year before, in 2005, he won the blue race at Pre-Nationals.

So - I see what you mean about him not being expected to win because many thought it would be McDougal or Cheseret, but the signs were all there. Are there any darkhorses this year with a similar profile? Undefeated or close to it, has won some big races this year or last? Maybe a guy like Bumbalough.

He did not win but Nef A. coming in second was a pretty big surprise to me.

Ryan Vail for the WIN!

chrisdiaz16 wrote:

if you think the field only has a 5% chance, you don't understand the unpredictability of ncaa cross...

i think luke has basically 0 chance of winning, since he has no kick, and i can't see him trying to break away from this talented field early enough to negate that

I agree about Luke.

I also think if you ran the race 20 times, the winner would come from my top three 19 of those races, based on what I've seen. It's possible I'm overlooking a Hieneking or someone like that, or that someone's been sharking the season (Bethke, McNeill) and is in much better racing shape than he's showed, but based on what I've seen, no one in the NCAA is beating Derrick, Chelanga and Fernandez on the same day.

I do realize, however, that if I was an actual odds maker, the odds would likely be more like 3-1 or even 2-1 on the field, 'cause that's how I'd make money. Chelanga and Derrick would both be around even money.

blah blah blah^ wrote:

I could see someone like McNeil flying under the radar (due to pre-nats) and going top 3, but the champion will come from one of 2 people. Chelanga-Derrick, NO GERMAN

Early Predictions-

1. Chelanga

2. Derrick

3. Poo-skedra

4. McNeil

5. Kirui

6. Baker

7. Sheridan

8. Bethke

9. Mead

10. Heineken (Va)

The fact that you list zero from Ok State in the top ten pretty much blows your cover. The same old poster with an irrational hatred for all things OK State. Get's old after a while.

Would most of you say this is a down year for individual talent? Would the Derricks and Puskedras do well other years or are we just missing that big name obvious choice (Rupp) this year?

I think we have 2 of those stud names, but both are "underachieving" (and by that I mean compared to the ridiculous expectations set on both - Chelanga and Fernandez. On paper in July, I think most would agree that if the race were run 100x, at least 95 times one of those two would have been picked to win. But of course this is why they run the race!

Captain Fly wrote:

On paper in July, I think most would agree that if the race were run 100x, at least 95 times one of those two would have been picked to win. But of course this is why they run the race!

I don't think that's true at all. Fernandez gets a lot of hype, but a rational person wouldn't put him head and shoulders over everyone else.

As far as Chelanga, his 2008 XC season, his 27:28 and his 13:19 would place him on a higher level than all the others, but the other guys are young, and it was inevitable that they were going to start gaining on him. In July, I would have tentatively put Chelanga as my favorite, with expectations that Derrick, Puskedra, Fernandez and maybe a few others might be able to rise to the challenge. But I wouldn't have put money on him winning 95 times out of 100.

As far as Fernandez, he gets hype, but what has he done that shows he's on a completely different level than Derrick or Puskedra in any event besides the 1500? Nothing. Derrick's only a few seconds slower at 5k, and beat German head to head. Derrick was only 7 seconds back at World Junior XC. He's consistently shown he's at, or near, the same level as Fernandez, and his close matchups with Puskedra have shown that Luke is right there as well.

Any rational person would have seen these three likely running very close together this year, and likely gaining on Chelanga. The question is how close those four will be at the end of the season, and if anyone else will break into that top four. For what it's worth, based on what we've seen so far, I'm picking Derrick to win.

giffypop17 wrote:

As far as Fernandez, he gets hype, but what has he done that shows he's on a completely different level than Derrick or Puskedra in any event besides the 1500? Nothing. Derrick's only a few seconds slower at 5k, and beat German head to head. Derrick was only 7 seconds back at World Junior XC. He's consistently shown he's at, or near, the same level as Fernandez, and his close matchups with Puskedra have shown that Luke is right there as well.

I agree with you about Derrick and Fernandez being on a similar level but after NCAA XC last year Fernandez has left Puskedra in the dust. Ran much faster, more accomplished and crushed him head to head in US XC and World XC.

2007 - McDougal is due, he beats the up and comer Rupp

2008 - Rupp is due, he beats the up and comer Chelanga

2009 - Chelanga is due, he'll win. Whoever gets second is my pick for next year (assuming he's not a senior).

If we look at last year's results:

1 1 467 Galen Rupp SR Oregon 8:29 14:29 23:17 29:03.2 - RunnerSpace.com

2 277 Samuel Chelanga SO Liberty 8:26 14:28 23:17 29:08.0

3 2 226 Andrew Ledwith SR Iona 8:41 14:46 23:38 29:25.4

4 3 493 David Kinsella SR Portland 8:43 14:46 23:38 29:26.5

5 4 466 Luke Puskedra FR Oregon 8:41 14:46 23:37 29:27.8

6 5 225 Mohamed Khadraoui SR Iona 8:46 14:46 23:39 29:29.3

7 6 575 Chris Derrick FR Stanford 8:42 14:46 23:39 29:29.4

8 7 438 John Kosgei JR Oklahoma State 8:51 14:57 23:38 29:32.4

9 8 461 Shadrac Kiptoo-Biwott SR Oregon 8:40 14:46 23:40 29:43.4

10 9 102 Kyle Perry SR BYU 8:41 14:46 23:47 29:46.1

11 10 426 Patrick Smyth SR Notre Dame 8:41 14:46 23:47 29:47.2

12 201 Mark Steeds JR Georgia State 8:45 14:47 23:47 29:49.2

13 11 193 Andrew Bumbalough JR Georgetown 8:42 14:47 23:47 29:51.7

14 12 127 Jordan Kyle JR Colorado 8:43 14:46 23:52 29:52.4

15 13 402 David McNeill JR Northern Arizona 8:49 14:56 23:57 29:53.0

16 14 47 Girma Mesecho FR Auburn 8:51 14:58 23:52 29:53.8

17 15 340 Chris Rombough SR Minnesota 8:49 14:57 24:00 29:54.4

18 16 494 Alfred Kipchumba SO Portland 8:47 14:55 24:01 29:54.8

19 17 530 David McCarthy SO Providence 8:46 14:51 23:58 29:55.1

20 157 Jeremy Criscione SR Florida 8:48 14:56 23:57 29:55.9

21 18 443 Ryan Vail SR Oklahoma State 8:51 14:59 24:01 29:58.4

22 19 627 Shadrack Songok SR Texas A&M 8:42 14:48 23:59 29:58.9

23 20 44 Elkanah Kibet JR Auburn 8:41 14:46 23:47 29:59.5

24 21 779 Landon Peacock SO Wisconsin 8:47 14:48 23:47 30:00.0

25 561 Jeff Schirmer JR So. Illinois 8:44 14:53 24:01 30:00.8

26 22 707 Emil Heineking SO Virginia 8:43 14:49 23:59 30:02.0

27 675 Japheth Ng'ojoy SR UTEP 8:41 14:47 24:00 30:03.3

28 23 45 Felix Kibioywo JR Auburn 8:51 14:58 23:52 30:04.7

29 24 642 John Beattie JR Tulsa 8:43 14:49 24:00 30:05.0

30 674 Nicodemus Ng'etich JR UTEP 8:46 14:55 24:01 30:06.2

31 25 337 Hassan Mead SO Minnesota 8:56 15:07 24:07 30:06.2

32 26 37 Scott MacPherson JR Arkansas 8:42 14:47 23:58 30:06.8

33 27 580 Garrett Heath SR Stanford 8:42 14:48 24:01 30:08.3

34 28 775 Stuart Eagon SR Wisconsin 8:47 14:57 24:06 30:08.6

35 29 197 Levi Miller JR Georgetown 8:49 15:01 24:10 30:09.0

The only ranking I would really change is ranking Derrick over Puskedra, but I still think that will be a close battle.

Jordan Kyle could be in the running for a top 5 finish.

I guess its personal opinion that Fernandez, based on his 1500 AND 5000 (and was running a fair NCAA CC last year until 7k) should get more consideration. Its also my theory that come sophomore year runners are going to experience a significant jump in ability and place as long as they stayed focused.

Heineking has gotten little love in this thread, but remember frosh year he was a world junior qualifier. Last year he was diagnosed with anemia halfway through the season and still finished all-american. Trace his progress after the halfway point from last year and see what he did. Combine those things with his race last weekend (regardless of course distance) and in my mind he deserves a little consideration. Not necessarily Chelanga, Derrick, or Puskedra - but he will be toward the front! Conference and Regionals will provide more insight.

Chelanga: 35%

Derrick: 25%

Puskedra: 10%

Fernandez: 10 %

Field: 20%

Captain Fly wrote:

I guess its personal opinion that Fernandez, based on his 1500 AND 5000 (and was running a fair NCAA CC last year until 7k) should get more consideration.

Yes, let's make those factors from last year be more important than the recent injury.

Blown Cover wrote:

The fact that you list zero from Ok State in the top ten pretty much blows your cover. The same old poster with an irrational hatred for all things OK State. Get's old after a while.

I don't think that's true at all. If one assumes German's in less than top form, then it's not crazy at all to assume no OSU guys will crack the top-10. The fact is that Colby Lowe has upped his game in a big way this season so that he's right with their top guys? But is he really a top-10 guy? We'll see. I don't think it's unreasonable at all to think that OSU will attempt to win the championship by running a pack of 6 in about 20th place. If 5 of those 6 stay in the top 30, they'll win.

Captain Fly wrote:

Would most of you say this is a down year for individual talent? Would the Derricks and Puskedras do well other years or are we just missing that big name obvious choice (Rupp) this year?

I think we have 2 of those stud names, but both are "underachieving" (and by that I mean compared to the ridiculous expectations set on both - Chelanga and Fernandez. On paper in July, I think most would agree that if the race were run 100x, at least 95 times one of those two would have been picked to win. But of course this is why they run the race!

Not at all a down year. I don't know that any of these guys are at Rupp's level yet, but I assure you, the way he's racing Derrick would have competed for the individual title almost every year the past couple decades.

Captain Fly wrote:

Heineking has gotten little love in this thread, but remember frosh year he was a world junior qualifier.

Who cares? World Jrs. is mostly used as goal for redshirting freshmen who aren't good enough to make varsity at their schools (Chris Severy in RWTB, couldn't make CU team but made World Jr. team). The exception that proves the rule, German running World Jrs. and ditching indoor NCAAs, has no precedent that I know of.

haha, YO wrote:

giffypop17 wrote:

As far as Fernandez, he gets hype, but what has he done that shows he's on a completely different level than Derrick or Puskedra in any event besides the 1500? Nothing. Derrick's only a few seconds slower at 5k, and beat German head to head. Derrick was only 7 seconds back at World Junior XC. He's consistently shown he's at, or near, the same level as Fernandez, and his close matchups with Puskedra have shown that Luke is right there as well.

I agree with you about Derrick and Fernandez being on a similar level but after NCAA XC last year Fernandez has left Puskedra in the dust. Ran much faster, more accomplished and crushed him head to head in US XC and World XC.

Not US XC and World XC. US Jr. XC and World Jr. XC, which were being run for amusement by Derrick and Puskedra, only German was focusing on it. In NCAA XC, Puskedra is far more accomplished, and has run 28:34 (Rupp's 28:15 is the AJR, 28:34 has to be pretty high up the list) for 10k. His pre-national win, his 5th place last year, and 28:34 make him a contender. Currently German isn't a factor at all based on his 11th at Chili Pepper, but we'll see how does at conference and regionals.