NCAA men's individual favorites and their odds

Chelanga - 30% chance to win

Derrick - 25% chance to win

Fernandez - 15% chance win

Puskedra - 5% chance to win

The rest of the field (mainly Kosgei, McNeil, and David) - 25% chance to win

Captain Fly wrote:

I'm only slightly in touch with the NCAA scene, but with Pre-nats done and conferences coming up next, who are the big names in the hunt at this point? What are their odds? It is still early (6 weeks??) but message boards never die!

Derrick, Stanford - pre-nats winner 12:1

Puskedra, Oregon - pre-nats winner 15:1

Chelanga, Liberty - runner-up last year 18:1

Heineking, UVA - big win on home course 30:1

Fernandez, Ok St - hard to completely let go 35:1

Who would you add? How would you change the odds?

I suspect that these 'odds' are worthless. 12:1 ~ 8%; adding these all up (8+6+5.5+3.3+3~26) I get approximately approximately a 1-in-four chance that these top five will win the race. Assuming that the next five average 2% gets us to 36%, the next 5 at 1%, etc. and we get about a 50% chance that someone will win the race.

Now look at the second post, where we have runners at 3:1 or so --

mideast?? wrote:

Chelanga - 30% chance to win

Derrick - 25% chance to win

Fernandez - 15% chance win

Puskedra - 5% chance to win

The rest of the field (mainly Kosgei, McNeil, and David) - 25% chance to win

Close. But 25% to the field? No Way. How about:

Chelanga - 40% chance to win

Derrick - 35% chance to win

Fernandez - 20% chance win

The rest of the field - 5% chance to win

sorry about the math...

I like that people have included a "rest of the field" - good idea.

Are there more names that we're leaving out?

those are the stupidest odds i've ever seen, I'll put a $1000 on all 5 of them and I'm still GUARANTEED to walk away with $12,000 at worst!!!

um your faaaaaaaarked wrote:

those are the stupidest odds i've ever seen, I'll put a $1000 on all 5 of them and I'm still GUARANTEED to walk away with $12,000 at worst!!!

That's really funny that you called the OP stupid when you think you'd walk away with at least $12,000.

Think about it for a minute. Still don't get it? Keep thinking.

I'd say the field has at the very least a 10% chance. I personally thought Chelanga was invincible this year now that Rupp's gone...but after being beat by Derrick and having Heath very close behind him...I can easily see someone with a high 28:xx 10k having the race of his life and beating Chelanga, Derrick, and Fernandez.

CatchMeIfYouCan wrote:

mideast?? wrote:

Chelanga - 30% chance to win

Derrick - 25% chance to win

Fernandez - 15% chance win

Puskedra - 5% chance to win

The rest of the field (mainly Kosgei, McNeil, and David) - 25% chance to win

Close. But 25% to the field? No Way. How about:

Chelanga - 40% chance to win

Derrick - 35% chance to win

Fernandez - 20% chance win

The rest of the field - 5% chance to win

close, but you put fernandez where puskedra should be.

I am not saying Andy Baker will win but he has at least shown good enough form to be mentioned among those names. He got 3rd at Notre Dame then bettered that at Pre Nats finishing second. He ran well on the wet course and i'd gamble nationals is likely to be wet. And form watching flotrack he produced a solid kick as well. One to watch certainly.

Chelanga 2-1

Fernandez 3-1

Derrick 8-1

Puskedra 10-1

David McCarthy 33-1

AJ Costa 150-1

I would add Hassan Mead! How did you over look him?

Mead, Minnesota-13:28 5k 10:1

if you think the field only has a 5% chance, you don't understand the unpredictability of ncaa cross...

i think luke has basically 0 chance of winning, since he has no kick, and i can't see him trying to break away from this talented field early enough to negate that

chrisdiaz16 wrote:

if you think the field only has a 5% chance, you don't understand the unpredictability of ncaa cross...

Is it really that unpredictable at the top? We've singled out the top four guys. You think someone is going to beat Derrick AND Chelanga AND Puskedra AND Fernandez?

Who was the last upset champion who came out of nowhere? The last ten champions were all expected to be top guys.

1999 David Kimani, South Alabama

2000 Keith Kelly, Providence

2001 Boaz Cheboiywo, Eastern Michigan

2002 Jorge Torres, Colorado

2003 Dathan Ritzenhein, Colorado

2004 Simon Bairu, Wisconsin

2005 Simon Bairu, Wisconsin

2006 Josh Rohatinsky, Brigham Young

2007 Josh McDougal, Liberty

2008 Galen Rupp, Oregon

historianism wrote:

[quote]chrisdiaz16 wrote:

if you think the field only has a 5% chance, you don't understand the unpredictability of ncaa cross...

Is it really that unpredictable at the top? We've singled out the top four guys. You think someone is going to beat Derrick AND Chelanga AND Puskedra AND Fernandez?

Who was the last upset champion who came out of nowhere? The last ten champions were all expected to be top guys.

a while ago, but when Kennedy won as a freshman, what were his odds going in I wonder?

rohatinsky was pretty unexpected

expected to be a top 10 guy but i dont think anybody not on byus team picked him to win

hmmmmmmm wrote:

rohatinsky was pretty unexpected

expected to be a top 10 guy but i dont think anybody not on byus team picked him to win

but that was a weaker field, with nobody on the level of chelenga and derrick, therefore much more prone to an upset. And, if that is the only true upset of the last 10 years that means the field deserves 10% odds - (1upset/10yearsx100=10%)

forest wrote:

but that was a weaker field, with nobody on the level of chelenga and derrick, therefore much more prone to an upset. And, if that is the only true upset of the last 10 years that means the field deserves 10% odds - (1upset/10yearsx100=10%)

Since it was a weaker field that negates the odds again.

I will however let you have 10% for the field if that includes McNeil in the field since that seems to be the way this thread sees it.

celtic Bookmakers wrote:

Chelanga 2-1

Fernandez 3-1

Derrick 8-1

Puskedra 10-1

David McCarthy 33-1

AJ Costa 150-1

Get outta here Acosta ya toolbag.

I could see someone like McNeil flying under the radar (due to pre-nats) and going top 3, but the champion will come from one of 2 people. Chelanga-Derrick, NO GERMAN

Early Predictions-

1. Chelanga

2. Derrick

3. Poo-skedra

4. McNeil

5. Kirui

6. Baker

7. Sheridan

8. Bethke

9. Mead

10. Heineken (Va)