The Ultimate Hypothetical 800m Race

if the wr is 1'43.4 & you've gone 2.75s/0.98s improvement to 1'43.9, only a dumb coach wouda said they are going to make huge improvements ( building flase expectations )

clearly the simple law of diminishing returns/limit theory is something you are clueless about :

try a geometric progression with 0.98s starter & multiplicator factor of 0.36 & see where the mathematical limit is & subtract it from 1'43.97 for ultimate career pb

if i'd been his coach,

i'd have not told him the likely truth that only tenths can be expected in future off basic mathematical reasoning & just see how the season pans out

we have a perfect example in asbel - slashed his 1'44.71 down to 1'43.17 & he's still 19y !!!

i'm not stoopid enough to tell him

"well, looking at that, you shoud go 1'42-flat next year, maybe 1'41.25 in '11 & by '12 you shoud be going high-1'40s for the 800/1500 double in london"

as for your conversion - it sucks

46*2 +4 = 1'36

as for london & wrs - you obviously missed ovett breaking the 2 mile wr in 78, moorcroft running within 0.7s of 3k wr in '82

as for coe cheating - the progression offers "unnatural" evidence considering the logjam of runners at mid/high-1'43 at the time & appearance of that being a near-term limit back in '79

you can also throw in jeff atkinson's accusations :

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2005/feb/13/lords.olympics2012

Michael Johnson in his prime versus Jason Rexing. Johnson gets a 400m head start. It would be a photo finish.

You're a complete wacko!

This is where your mathematical formula is a load of crap, because it supposes that an athlete runs their absolute best time each year.

Just because Coe solo ran a 1:43.97 in windy conditions at the Palace in Sept 78, after being ill in Prague and weighing only 120lb, that doesn't mean that was his limit that year. Given the right race, pace, conditions he more than likely could have run 1:43.5 that year. He'd run a 47.7 400m in May, didn't run for 5 weeks (June-July) with injuries then didn't run for 4 weeks between July & August. So he probably never got the chance to run at his full potential. Ovett's fastest 400m that year was 48.4 (with a 47.3 relay leg) so they were pretty even over 800 that year, with Ovett also capable of running (if not breaking) 1:43.5.

In 79 Coe was much faster at 400m (46.87 & 45.5 relay) So an improvement of 1 sec at 800m (based on a 1:43.5 potential in 78) looks very normal to me.

In the same way Coe only ran 1:44.7 in 1980; missing most of the fast paced end of season races with a back problem. Does that mean 1:44.7 was his limit for that year and as he had gone backwards in time from '79 that he had reached his limit and wouldn't run any faster? Of course it didn't, unless your some moron who just sees everything in bloody equations and hasn't got the capacity to even consider extenuous circumstances unless they happen to be Kenyan.

As for you insinuating that a 1.6 secs improvement was evidence of drug use then the same can be said for half the world's elite athletes.

Cruz ~ 1:44.04 (20)

~ 1:41.77 (21) That's 2.26 secs

Aouita ~ 3:37, 13:39 (21)

~ 3:37 (22) No 5000m. No improvement! Oh no, he's reached his limit and might as well retire!

~ 3:32 (23) No 5000m

~ 3:31, 13:04 (24)

Lagat ~ 3:41 (22)

~ 3:34 (23)

~ 3:30.56 (24) Shouldn't he have reached his limit at 21/22 and then only have improved by tenths!? Oh hang on a minute, good old "Bernie" is Kenyan so the rules don't apply! Also, he tested positive on an A sample, so thats even more evidence that he is 100% genuine. As opposed to that dirty Coe guy who has never had a shred of evidence to cast a shadow on his achievements, other than some "rumours" from a jealous 2nd rate athlete.

Geb ~ 28:04 (19)

~ 27:30 (20)

~ 27:15 (21) The rate of improvement is slowing down here! Lets only expect a few seconds next year now he's hit the grand old age of 21.

~ 26:43!!! (22) What? thats That's 32 seconds. How can that be?

There is a lot more about the progression of some of these guys that could be considered more suspicious than Coe's fairly natural progression.

As you can plainly see (or maybe you're so ignorant you can't) every athlete is different and not a bloody robot that fits in with Eldrick's (sorry Ventolin's) Jundo Predictor and whatever other formulae he uses to determine what time someone is capable of at what age. Athletes like the general public, develop and grow at different rates. Some 16 years olds are 6" and have stopped growing, some don't stop until they're 21 or 22. Some don't fill out until they're almost 30. So your reasoning is crap as usual.

add 4 secs to 400m x 2

Do I have to add brackets

(4 + 46.87) x 2

So you have found one world record on a seldom run distance. Big deal those guys lived here & all the rest of their world records were set abroad

As for unatural progression. Why did you use this as an example, if he is 19 I'm 21 again! It just disproves your theory

Kaki

2009 1:43.17 Doha 08/05/2009

2008 1:44.71 Lausanne 02/09/2008

I don't think he is using drugs either, by the way.

You seem more interested in mathematics than running or do you just like arguing the toss about anything?

Now to you link.Does this support your argument:

He was, however, accused of blood doping by an American athlete called Jeff Atkinson. Blood doping (the removal and subsequent re-injection of red blood cells in order to boost oxygen flow to the muscles) was made illegal in 1985. Coe has been the subject of exhaustive investigation by at least one British journalist intent on proving that he was not as clean as he appeared, without any evidence being uncovered.

'without any evidence being uncovered.'

As for Atkinson. How the hell would he know if Coe was doping? .

This has got to be the funniest post ever.

Thanks for the laughs.

bump

I'd like to see the grizzly emerge from his hibernation on page 2 and maul the posters who appended the joy sucking tapeworm dragging out the tail end of this otherwise lovely thread. It does show the genius of the original post that it set up a farce mocking them, and yet they still did their thing, but really, xxjo needs to clear everything after page 2 and restore the luster on this jewel.

In my fantasy world there never was a Scrappy Doo, the Matrix was one film, and this thread is a brilliant original post with best follow on of all time. Lock it but bump it every 3 months so people can see why this board has so much more than the daily cesspool of political extremists, trolls, and bitter know it alls.

bump for the greatest thread ever

i would make a 1000m race. Then it would make it more fair and can include some more milers in there. Greatest middle distance race ever. The way you have it i guess coe (if the bear does not eat everyone first)

1) Jim Ryun cannot win the hypothetical race because he wastes time trying to convert the bear to Christianity.

2) I would like a lane for an optimally-trained Martin McGrady. McGrady was the greatest 600 yard guy ever and regularly beat Lee Evans in the 600 indoors.

3) For the guy who asked about Fiasconaro, here is a long post from Renato (using the name "Guest") from a Track and Field News messageboard in 2003. Like I said, it's long and Renato's first language is not English, but it is funny and informative.

About Fiasconaro-Harbig, may be that my opinion is also due to the affections that I feel for March, that was the top Italian runner that I coached, when I was yet very young. March was son of an Italian orchestra conductor, Gregorio Fiasconaro, born in Castelbuono in Sicily, and emigrated in South Africa. Marcello (March for his SouthAfrican friends) born there, becoming a good rugby player. But, like many southafricans of that period, he went also to the track for running 400m. At that time (1970) was in RSA the Italian Discus thrower Carmelo Rado (58.45), that during a meeting in Potchefstroom, seeing this guy winning in 46.6 with an Italian name, asked him if he was Italian. When Rado knew that March's passport was italian, he wrote to It. Federation, and the President Primo Nebiolo organized the travel to Italy for March. Meanwhile, he had improved his times, running in 45.7 (that could not be Italian NR because March had not yet finished the documents for his new nationality). So, he could come to Italy only in June '71.

At that time, the Italian responsable of 400, 400hs and 4x400 was Salvatore Morale, former record holder winning ECH in Belgrade '62 with 49.2, and bronze medal in OG '64. I was his assistant, because at that time (only 26 years old....) I had some of the best Italian runners of 400m (Puosi 46.5, Cellerino 46.7 and some other around 47/47.5) that of course always were very far from american sprinters. So, March was the man that permitted to Italian Relay to win its first bronze medal in 4x400 relay during ECh in '71.

When he arrived the first time in Italy (Milan), it was on 29th of June in 1971, two days before the "Notturna di Milano", meeting in which Marty Liquori ran the best seasonal time of 1500m in 3:36.0 beating Franco Arese (3:36.3, NR).

I went with Morale to the airport for receiving March. He arrived with a T-Shirt white and green like in the Rugby Teams, with a very small bag.

Two days later, he won 400m in Milan in 46.1, moving at the start his foot in front : never he had tried any start from blocks !

In August (after winning in Viareggio against Juantorena, during the first European race of "Caballo", with 45.7, new Italian record) I went as responsable of the team for a short period (two weeks) of "oxygenation" in altitude. We went to Abetone (1800m high), without no place for running. After one day of investigation, I found a rough road up and down to reach thru chair-lift, having a small circuit of 1200m about. We started running, and after 10 min all the other athletes of the relay were 200m back. March was improving step by step, and I (that at the time yet was a runner every day), after 40 min, told him : "You can become in two years the new Record holder of 800m". "But I don't like 2 laps, I'll never run the distance in the future".

March won silver with 45.49 in ECh, then came back to RSA. When he came back, in the spring of '72, he won his first 800m in Bergamo with 1:47.7, then ran 3 x 200 in official competition with 15 min of rest (it was a special training for all the best Italians) in Formia in 21.2/21.4/21.7. It was the end of his career like 400m runner. March had horse-feet, and was good for training only on grass or tracks of earth. The new tartan distroyed him, that had to skip OG having a microfracture that nobody was able to see.

Gone back to RSA, he rested 3 full months, than began training with more long run, using golf fields with wonderful grass.

His coach was Stewart Banner, owner of a chain of restaurants, that moved him on 800m.

At that time, in RSA there were two very strong specialist : Broberg and Malan, and then Fanie Van Zijl, better in 1500 but not bad also in 800. So, March cometed many times, winning the most part of competitions and running 1:44.7 in April. Then he came to Italy.

In Italy, he was in Torino (my town) beeing attached with CUS Torino, the Univeristy Center whose President was Primo Nebiolo. I was the coach of Fiat, the other club of the town, that had a track yet in earth, while the official Stadium was in tartan. So, with Nebiolo we decided that he could come for training with me, on the Fiat track.

I adviced him to do something more on the side of endurance, but substancially never changed the programs of Stewart Banner, that were very very simple :

a) If you have a race of 400m on Sunday, you go on Tuesday for 3x300m in 34.5/34.0 rec. 8'/10', and on Thursday for 6x150 in 17.0 rec. 3'/4'

b) If you have a race of 800m on Sunday, you go on Tuesday for 3x600m in 1:21 rec. 10', and on Thursday for 6x300m in 39.0 rec. 3'/4'.

So, I remember very well the last workout before beating the world record (27th of June 1973).

It was on 22nd. He went for 3x600m. It was very hot, terrible.

March ran the first in 1:19.6, then, after 10', the second in 1:19.2. After 8 min I was no more able to see him on the track, so I had a full lap, and, when I arrived near the water jump odf steeple, full of water, I saw him completely underwater, breathink with a small cane like Rambo in his movie. When he saw me, he asked me : "How much is?" speaking about recovery time. "Now are 9 min, March, but it's better that you finish here".

"No, now I go, Stewart (that from 4 months didn'y hear him...) says that I have to do 3x600, so I go".

"OK March, but runs about 1:25, because the race against Plachy is in short time".

And I requested to Max Strenghetto, another runner capable of 1:51, to help him for the last 300m in 42.0.

March started slowly, and after 300m his split was 42.2, but Strenghetto, may be for some emotion (like sometimes pacers at the beginning of a race) started 10 meters before, very hard.

March didn't want to lose without fightning also if tired, so improved continuously the pace, reaching Strenghetto in the last 5 meters. His time was 1:18.6 (so, the second 300m were 36.4), and I and him were sure about the World Record.Guest

Thanks for that insight. Very interesting.

Sounds like he didn't reach his full potential either, perhaps!

Bump, throw David Rudisha into the mix. And Robby MF Andrews.

The Bear, AKA Yogi, carbo loads the on PBJ'S the night before the race (taken from a picnic basket) while escaping from "Mister Ranger Sir". At the start, the bear pukes and DNS, all runners slip and fall @ the 400 meter mark first lap except for Konchella, who leaps over the vomit (all Kenyans can jump because they are born with steeplechase DNA) & wins!

No matter how the grizzly finishes, he /it will be DQ'd for an obvious lane violation in the first 100m of the race.

Bear? What's a bear?

Bump for the first sub 4 mile thread.

Bump

Ha, great to see this old thread again for the first time in years. If you aren’t familiar with it, you just need to read all of page one only. Sit back and enjoy...

Bump