Meb has lousy tactics

We'll soon see all 54 splits and figure it out.

The we'll see how good our armchair quarterbacking is.

I will say KK "went" way too early. I saw him at 12 miles and he was all alone well behind (200-300 meters) the 5 or 6 guys in the lead pack at that time, but ahead of Sell who was in a smaller chase pack, maybe 100 meters back. I didn't understand it since KK has such a depth of experience running at such a high level. And, as has been noted countless times here, KK's form looked rough and uncomfortable.

Towards the end of the race, at mile 21, Meb and KK were running together- but they were well behind Sell and Browne at that point- I estimated at that moment that he had close to zero chance of catching up to the 3rd spot- not because he didnt have the ability, but because he was simply too far back- Browne was well ahead of KK - over a minute, and Sell (with at least a 100M gap on KK) looked strong too. I imagined Meb and KK working together on that final lap, but at that point it all seemed futile.

I think going into the race, people thought Hall and Abdi would be the class of the field, and only the third spot up for grabs. When Meb saw these two as well as Ritz (didn't fare well in his debut, but talent enough to pull of a shocker) and Browne (2004 team, and one of the toughest racers alive), he couldn't afford to let four guys break away. Likewise, for KK. He saw the pack of four mentioned above plus an olympic silver medalist (not to mention that three of them are teamates) breaking away, he had no choice but to make a move by himself. He had no way of knowing that Sell and Lemkule would come back. While watching it live, I was actually wishing KK had gone sooner, and regained contact before Hall strung out the field. Given his performance, I doubt there would be any concievable way Hall could have lost, but if KK had regained contact it might have been a whole different race. Nobody was really sure what KK was cabale of going in, and like the comentator said, KK rejoining that pack would cause nothing less than the fear of god.

In hindsight, perhaps Meb and KK would have fared better if they hung back with Sell, but they had no way of knowing Abdi would drop out, Browne would cramp, Sell would move up, and Culpepper would not make a move from somewhere behind them.

Not trying to understate this but KK has, to his credit, several of the best marathon performances ever. With that kind of experience, I have to think that he went with what he felt was the best strategy for the opposition he was with. I have to think he knew Hall was going to beat him (and everyone else) no matter what, given his own level of fitness. I don't think he knew that both Meb and Abdi were going to fold up, as well as the fact that Ritz would stay strong. That said, there were 5 guys ahead of him at mile 11 when he left the chase pack to move up. They were Hall, Browne, Ritz, Meb, and Abdi. That was too many good guys to let get out of his sight (3 too many), and he simply couldn't take the chance. He had to go. He was only at 5 minute pace at that point, so it must not have seemed difficult to slowly pick it up at 20k. The problem was he was lacking endurance, because where he had opened up 100 meters on Sell by 25k (KK avg. 4:50 pace 20-25k), Sell had come right back to and passed him just after 30k (KK slowed to 5:00 pace while Sell picked it up to 4:55). A healthy KK would have stuck with Sell- no way do you give up ground with just 12k to go. And meanwhile, Meb had crumbled to 5:13 pace- Sell passed him at about 32k, KK pulling away from Meb a little later. But Sell stayed strong, putting in 4:55's to stay ahead of KK, and then catch Browne.

KK just didn't have it, neither did Meb. Both guys who are accustomed to closing out races at 4:50 pace- or faster.

Brian Sell was never more than 38 seconds out of 3rd place. The leaders were running sub 4:40's from 10-15. The Hansons were aware of this fact and made a point of telling Brian to not get into the pissing match.

On a tough course that was stupid for everyone accept Hall.

Brian was aware that he could beat Meb by 30 seconds over the last 5 miles based on history. The more 4:40's that were being run by the lead group the better Brian's chances were (because the fade would be greater).

Hall ran great. Ritz was a surprise to not fade more. Everything else went how Brian Sell and the Hansons had evaluated the competition.

In addition to your comments, I would like to add something. Culpepper said that the course is about 3 minutes slow. That means that Sell ran an equivelant to a 2:08:40. In order for Meb to have beaten Sell he would of needed to run about a minute faster than he has ever run before. Maybe Meb isn't that good.

Unless there is a small group of competitors all running to win and everyone else is far slower, it is stupid to run any strategy than the one which yields the fastest time. I've seen on several occasions two runners or so who go out and surge against each other just to fade in the end and get beaten by a slower runner who just ran a much smarter race. In a long distance race like the marathon, it is almost always best to run the race which will result in the fastest time if you are not in it for the win, and sometimes it's even best if you ARE in it for the win.

Meb never runs his own race? You acknowledged that he has a silver and it's precisely because he ran his own race on the biggest stage there is.

Marathons seem to be a crapshoot anyway AND he wasn't healthy. There is no way that Meb's past performances suggest that he could have run under 2:11 on that course while NOT healthy. I'd say he did the best he could, it didn't work out, and he was gracious at the end.

Guppy, we need to throw you back in to grow. Right now if we got caught, we'd get fined for keeping you.

Culpepper's 3 minutes comment was in reference to Hall, given his level of talent and the way he had his foot off the pedal both at the beginning and the end. For someone like Lehmkuhle, who ran the race of his life, I think it would be more like 2 minutes. For Sell, I would think about the same- meaning somewhere between 2:09 and 2:10.

Meb does have lousy racing tacticts though. When everyone else threw their hats off he didn't. That is why he shambled. Also, he always wears that saggy long sleeved shirt which i imagine must also get really heavy and full of sweat by the end of a marathon. Considering he is a pro athlete with a signed contract I imagine he must have access and the funds for better gear right. So the hat and the long sleeved shirt must have cost him at least 5 minutes. haha.