Footlocker top 7 against NCAA??

In 1993 the footlocker top five were:

1)Adam Goucher

2)Meb Keflizhigi

3)Matt Davis

4)Bob Keino

5)Brad Hauser

This team would have faired not too bad. Not top five or anything but they might have come in not too far off that. I think all of them finished at least top five at NCAA cross at some point, except Keino who finished around 15th and didn't even finish out his career.

It would have been great to see.

ttc wrote:

Ritz ran the open USATF 5000M final at the end of his HS senior year and finished 11th. Webb ran his 3:53 against the lightning fast-starting Pre milers and almost beat Lagat. Didn't Rupp run against a few collegians and do well at the end of his senior year? I could be wrong there, but not sure. I don't know this year's HS class nearly well enough to comment about them, though.

So we're going to use three HS record holders to make a point. Wouldn't you think these guys might be the outliers rather than the rule?

Since I like numbers, I looked up results of 2000 Footlocker and 2001 NCAA. I could only find 7 in both races on the men's side. They are below, with Footlocker place and NCAA place.

1. Dathan Ritzenhein: NCAA 4

2. Alan Webb: NCAA 11

3. Ryan Hall: NCAA 76

9. Seth Watkins: NCAA 145

11.  Rod Koborsi: NCAA 73

19.  Erik Grumstrup: NCAA 177

30.  Jason Sandfort: NCAA 32

Total: 196

That total doesn't account for those not in the team race. The NCAA team went like:

1. Colorado, 90; 2. Stanford, 91; 3. Arkansas, 118; 4. Northern Ariz., 193; 5. Wisconsin, 245

So the entire senior portion of Footlocker 2000 would have combined for probably 4th best team the next fall.

Two of those record holders weren't even first in their race. The Withrow, Rupp, Shadrack, McDougall race, among others, would have fielded a team that would have done fine IMO. The majority of the best "true frosh" never end up running, so it's hard to compare the year difference, but I'd say that it's not unreasonable to say that the absolute best HS kids in the nation could compete pretty well against collegians, not the top 5 obviously, but I personally think they'd average between 11-15 pretty consistently.

But that's with another year's development. If you assembled that same group as high school seniors, they would be running significantly slower. Or else, the claim would be that they made no improvement from age 18 (on average) to age 19.

I would hazard a guess that in high school the group would average about 30 to 60 seconds slower over a full 10k.

That would drop them into much lower competitive slot.

Also, please note that Ritz and Webb did exceptionally well as true freshmen. I believe the first true freshman from the US this year was 49th..

What a STUPID question/thought/any other adjective!

The difference between HS and NCAA is tremendous!

How 'bout a question that makes sense.

Mutineer wrote:

So we're going to use three HS record holders to make a point. Wouldn't you think these guys might be the outliers rather than the rule?

Good point. But in the last 18 years, we've had Todd Williams, Bob Kennedy, Adam Goucher, Meb, Brian Grosso (maybe the best FL champ of all from what I've heard about the guy), Ritz, Webb, Torres and Withrow (leading U.S. runner at world's next redshirt year) who all would've been extremely competitive.

I think that if the top HS guys in the nation had trained for 8k/10k all year they could do pretty well in the ncaa. I doubt they could make all-american status, but a small number of guys, such as Forys, Hall, and Tebo I think might be able to crack top 50.

Its still a tough comparison to make using their freshman years because they had an entire summer of college base work and an entire season of college level coaching.

In terms of who could come in and be good in a 10k as highschooler - Ritz, Lingren, Rudy Chapa, Ruben Riena, and I know I'll get shit for saying it, but probably pre.

All the above where great cross country runners who ran pretty solid distance track times in high school as well, or at least well enough to be considered national level in NCAA.

Personally, I think the Top 7 would be mid pack d2 and probably a top 3 team d3, but I think they'd get stomped div 1 handily, even with an all-star highschool team.

Thinking more about it, I bet they would probably be top 5 div2 and probably a contender each year div3 either 1rst or 2nd.

i put the over/under on your age (and IQ) at 17.5

You guys are making way too much out of a difference between 5k and 10k. The top FL guys are top runners (sorry if that offends your ego) putting in big miles, if they're running 8:50's for 3200m they can undoubtedly run 29's for 10k on a track. Rupp wasn't much faster than 8:50 and he ran mid 13's and low 28's.

I'd say the top 5 freshmen at NCAA's is a fair proxy for top 5 at FL. You gain a year of experience, which is nowhere near 60 seconds on average over 10k, but you also aren't considering the non-seniors who ran well at FL.

I think taking the top 7 from FL would place top 10, but not top 5 most years.

The difference between 5k and 10k is pretty big - especially for someone who has never run one before. A lot of the FL guys end up at 1500/5000 runners in college unlike Ritz who was a pure distance guy - as such they are going to have a harder time over 10k than Ritz did. Obviously the quality if going to vary greatly year to year. I say top 10 would be an excellent result on a very good year, whereas most years FL would finish 15-25th.

For any of you that think the high school kids would go top 15, you're way off. The guy who posted the top American freshman this year list makes the best point. All those guys are a year older and those 5 together still would have got their ass handed to them. In a typical year (non-Ritz & Webb) a high school all-star team beating even 2 or 3 teams would be impressive to me. Guys like Webb who was 11th as a freshman, had all the added training and confidence from a solid senior track season to go off of. Webb was still a relatively unknown quantity in XC as a hs senior and probably would have been lucky to crack the top 100 at NCAAs. Remember also, Ritz and Rupp hadn't yet run 13:40 5000 Meters as XC seniors. They probably would have been more intimidated by the college competition in November of their senior year's than they would have been after the amazing June or July months they had at the end of their senior years. Just my two cents from a guy who's been out of hs for 9 years and actually ran at the NCAA National meet.

I'd just like to point out that Rupp's 13:37 HSR is 8:46 2 mile pace. I'm willing to bet that he could have run around 8:35, if not faster.

please..... wrote:

you can't use webb and ritz, two anomolies who may be the best 2 HS distance runners ever, as the basis for your argument.

than this whole argument is pointless than

perspective wrote:

But that's with another year's development. If you assembled that same group as high school seniors, they would be running significantly slower. Or else, the claim would be that they made no improvement from age 18 (on average) to age 19.

Also, please note that Ritz and Webb did exceptionally well as true freshmen. I believe the first true freshman from the US this year was 49th..

Add to this observation the fact that everyone seems to want to pick their "FL finalists" from the top five finishers among true freshmen in the next year's NCAA championship race. Reminder: This is cross country, people, you pick your team before the race, not after. Any number of fantasies may be "proven" if you are allowed the privilege of selecting your team after the results are in rather than before. If, in a good year, the "score" of the top five true freshman (and let us not forget the additional year of training with high-quality teammates this top five has just enjoyed) ranks mid-high among all other (true) teams at NCAAs, you can rest assured the top five high school FL finalists of that same year would have a (much) higher score and a much lower placing. It is difficult to imagine the top seven FL finalists ever contending for anything remotely resembling a podium finish.

I like high school cross country, and marvel at what so many of the kids accomplish. That said, it's not college cross country.

wut? wrote:

please..... wrote:

you can't use webb and ritz, two anomolies who may be the best 2 HS distance runners ever, as the basis for your argument.

than this whole argument is pointless than

I think we have our answer

Why No Pre on the team? Should crack my top 7