DIII At-large Bid Predictions

I'm not sure about the central getting 3 at large bids. The region seemed pretty weak this year (I know the times were slow in the snow, but I'm basing this off how guys I've run against placed).

Weak? No.

The west is terrible in terms of teams, the same as the south and the mideast (other than Haverford). This year, these regions only should get the top 2. Garbage...teams in the Midwest and GL are left home who would kill these other teams. HEY ALL YOU COMMITTEE MEMBERS OR WHOEVER...THIS IS EXACTLY WHY THERE SHOULD NOT BE A CAP ON THE REGIONS. DO NOT AND I REPEAT, DO NOT GIVE ME THIS CRAP ABOUT REPRESENTATION. DIII IS ALL READY BAGGED ON ENOUGH FOR BEING AN INFERIOR DIVISION...NOW THERE ARE TEAMS AND INDIVIDUALS WHO MEDICRE HIGH SCHOOL TEAMS COULD BEAT. GIMME AN EFFING BREAK. I AM RIGHT.

bump

Ex-WIAC wrote:

I'm not sure about the central getting 3 at large bids. The region seemed pretty weak this year (I know the times were slow in the snow, but I'm basing this off how guys I've run against placed).

The central is the deepest region. Yes, even deeper than the WIAC.

Midwest- 3

Atlantic- 3

Great Lakes- 2

West- 2

Central- 2

New England- 2

Mideast- 1

South- 1

Do you really believe that? Compare the times year after year for regions and nationals...I believe you will find the Midwest teams are consistently better

doesnt matter, thats the point, this is D3, and the NCAA wants representation from all regions at the NCAA meet. Thats how it works, if you had a real clue, then you'd know how Bball, soccer, womens volleyball all qualify. We already have it way better than could be expected from the NCAA. And that has nothing to do with the committee, this is a mandate from WAY above them. If you cant be top 5 in your region, tough luck. I may not agree with what i just laid out for you, but it is the way it is, for exactly why I explained it.The south sucks, but under the criteria set up to pick, the first 3 teams were all really close, and that may pull Emory in.

Ex-WIAC wrote:

Do you really believe that? Compare the times year after year for regions and nationals...I believe you will find the Midwest teams are consistently better

I agree even though the south is very weak I think Emory might get in due to the at large criteria. Lets face it their is no perfect system and never will be.

Central - 3

Atlantic - 3

Midwest - 3

New England - 3

Great Lakes - 2

West - 2

Mideast - 0

South - 0

Who gets it in the west? CMS and Colorado? Or just CMS? Or just Colorado? How do they judge?

how did haverford do at regionals?

They can't skip teams. Cms goes over Colorado.

How is this decided? I really want to know. Is there a selection committee?

What do they do about individual qualifiers? I ask this because individual qualifiers are usually some number of people whose team didn't make it after the teams that do make it have their runners taken out. And now we don't know all the teams that made it yet. Is it just top 6 (or whatever) runners after top 2 teams removed, or do they remove the at-large teams as well? Which would mean you wouldn't know right away if you made it individually.

The main factors are

1. Place At Regionals+Point Difference

2. 1-5 Spread

3. Prior Victories over other teams considered (in Conf meets)

Now let's do this one at a time.

These guys are shoo-ins

1. Ohio Northern

55 second spread (kind of average) but they have a victory

over Heidelber and are only 4 points out.

2. CMS

47 second spread and only 4 points out

3. Platteville

5 points out only

Based on the above

4. Oshkosh

They beat Platteville handily at WIAC

5. Mount Union

Defeated both ONU and Heidelberg

Here are the current "Bubble team"

WashU,Colorado,Emory, Trinity, RIT, Wartburg, Hope, CMU

WashU has beaten CMU and Emory

Colorado had a decent showing against the Southern Teams

but has an atrocious spread.

RIT 29 points out (85 spread)

Wartburg 23 (40)

Trinity 39 (114)

Colorado 8 (140)

Hope 19 (97)

Washington 30 (36)

Looking at it like this seems to indicate

6. Wartburg

7. WashU (Midwest Maxed Out)

Now the next team in the Central is SJU which is only

8 points back with a 44second spread AND beat Hamline

8. Saint John's

Based Upon spread and point gap (and regional place) the

obvious choice now is Emory, but they got whooped on

at UAA. None of the remaining choices are obvious (based on Selection criteria). So we go with

9. Colorado College

They are only 8 points back and finished in between Rhodes

and Centre at SCAC.

Now it's RIT vs UPS vs Emory vs Trinity vs CMU vs Hope vs NWU

10. UPS (West Maxed Out!!!!)

Hey, 22 second spread and only 35 points behind 1st

11. RIT

85 second spread is not great but they get credit for being

3rd in the region

12. TCNJ

Only 3 point behind RIT and a smaller spread

13. Geneseo (Atlantic Maxed Out!)

Just 8 points behind TCNJ

So now it's down to

Emory vs Trinity vs CMU vs Hope vs NWU

We know we'd take CMU over Emory and we'd take

Trinity over CMU (because of point gap)

14. Trinity

15. Wesleyan

Just 1 pt down

As a #5 Tufts looks more attractive than NWU and Hope

So it's Tufts vs CMU

16. Tufts

Based on point gap

This system is biased towards the West because there are fewer people, I didn't take that into account maybe the NCAA will. Anyway

Summary:

West 3

Midwest 3

Atlantic: 3

Northeast: 3

Central: 2

Greatlakes:2

South:0

Mid Atlantic:0

Statistically wrote:

Central - 3

Atlantic - 3

Midwest - 3

New England - 3

Great Lakes - 2

West - 2

Mideast - 0

South - 0

I agree with this. The west only deserves 2. Central is the deepest region, they should get 3.

can you do that for the women too?

Don't overlook the mideast. I'll argue that the mideast will get an at large. Haverford and Allegheny are good and had a close race today for the two autos.

Not that this matters this year, but I think using the old formula that the mideast would have gotten at least 3 teams this year since I believe they had 2 in the top 16 last year. Based upon history, they deserve an extra spot, maybe 2.

I just want to point out that Emory got last in the UAA.

http://www.trxclandscaping.com/wu_xc/2006_uaa_result_men.htm