Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year

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1 week ago 04/25/2024 7:38am EDT

re: YouthcoachG

YouthcoachG wrote:
I think it's sad and pathetic that people give Crams "wishful thinking" any weight. All the Jakob haters can latch on to that, it gives them more hope that Jakob fails. I will bet anything that Kerr does not win gold in Paris. He won't beat Jared, and someone else might come along, too. It's just wild that Kerr out kicks Jakob in a 3:30 1500m, and now he's just the best ever, unstoppable force. Go ahead and keep believing that. Whatever makes you feel good. I'll keep my opinions reality based. Crams biased opinion is no better than mine or yours, but Jakobs prs are far better than Kerrs. I'll keep my money on the defending olympic champion atv1500m.

He didn't say that Jakob wouldn't win Gold in 1500, rather that he wouldn't break 1500/mile record. Pay attention. I think he has a better chance at the Mile (as others have also said) than the 1500m. As far as I am concerned, those with relatively little speed (ElG may also be in that camp), but good endurance are more suspicious in terms of doping (EPO would help more in that direction) - but I also believe that this number is small anyway.

The problem with the success of the 1500/5k type currently (and aiding in fast multiple rounds and the final is the benefit), is that the 800/1500 type is now marginalized - but a well trained proponent may have a better chance in a one-off record attempt.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 8:24am EDT

re: High hopes

I don’t think Jakob will even race.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 8:28am EDT

re: justanothercuriousdude

justanothercuriousdude wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
You're comparing runners 40 years apart. Cram had two records Jakob doesn't - and may never have.
Cram’s records were relatively weak, and didn’t stay for long. I myself watched Ovett, Coe and Cram many times live, and I’m not impressed over what they accomplished in the 1500m / mile -very weak results compared to the athletes before them (Walker, Bayi and especially Herb Elliott) and after (Morcelli, El Guerrouj). Yes, these three brits ran (despite their good 800m pb’s) so poorly that I a couple of months ago rewatched most of their races to find out why… My conclusion was as follows:
1. Steve Ovett seemed to lack talent for mid distance (or he trained wrongly), physically, psychologically and strategically (although he looked lean, had a good stride and very good field positioning ability) -he just ran slow. But I think he might have had a talent in the 3/5k, if he had tried this earlier, before injuries…
2. Seb Coe: For a long time he sliced tens of a second (around 3.32) of the WR along with Ovett. -Very poor running compared to Herb Elliott’s 3.35.6 (that is worth sub 3.30 -modern shoes / tracks / pacing). But Coe had clearly a capacity Ovett lacked; he just had to run his first lap more conservatively to get his two only good times (3.47 / 3.29). To me neither Coe was a good 1500m runner -as an all time great he is rescued by his 1.41 and 2.12).
3. Steve Cram -I’m not impressed. And I find it a little strange that he gives advices to a so much better runner (Jakob). But also Cram is sort of rescued by his 800m pb (1.42.8). Saying that, he is clearly the best of the three mentioned brits, mostly because of the potential he showed in his Bislett mile WR (could maybe have done a 1.44 high). Sad he hadn’t Jakob to learn from at the time -don’t care about the competition (Coe). Concentrate on running decent and fast…
Yes, it’s forty years ago. But Jakob is close to much better WR’s… Since the last interview with Cram Jakob has become Olympic champ, broken three WR’s, scared the mile WR and 3000m WR, and is back to back W champ in the 5000m (in a season of sickness and injuries). 22 years old at the time. -Should he change his training after this? To a training that did so little for the brits? (Except Kerr and Wightman who first became decent elite after increasing their endurance). Because of what a lot of “experts” are saying in interviews and on the LRC forum? Without knowing how he trains or what his real 800m time is / can be?

This the worst post I have ever read on this absurd website.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 9:13am EDT

re: John Wesley Harding

John Wesley Harding wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
He didn't break the 1500 wr; he broke the 1500 indoor record.
You misunderstood. Cram shared in the interview that he went out and celebrated with Aouita after they first broke 3:30.

I did misunderstand. I thought you were talking about Jakob, not Cram.

This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 9:13am EDT

re: Winthorpe53

Winthorpe53 wrote:
This the worst post I have ever read on this absurd website.

You did even exceed JWH’s comment -good for you..!

1 week ago 04/25/2024 9:18am EDT

re: Piero Scaruffi

Piero Scaruffi wrote:
"says Jakob is too distracted by the 5000 and won't break the 1500/mile WRs until he improves his speed"
nonsense. jakobs weakness is kick. he is the fastest 1500m runner otherwise. your kick is not what gets you wr

Jakob's weakness isn't just kick but his speed, which means to try to run faster over the 1500 he risks tying up sooner. That is what the "speed" debate is about.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 9:21am EDT

re: Salvitore Stitchmo

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
This is one of the worst posts in history. Congrats.
Yeah I have to agree - when it's a post basically slamming 3 of the greatest MD runners in history it seems bizarre and what's the impetus for it, because Cram said he felt Jakob needed to be faster over the 800 to get the 1500 record? (I know he said mile too, but I think a lot of people who do follow the sport closely and have great knowledge of the sport would respectfully disagree with him).
And anyway, Crams narrative isn't wrong - I can say with some level of confidence that if Jakob was capable of being within half a second of Crammy over 2 laps (not even a race - just a two lap time trial), then he would have the 1500m WR already.

The last para in a nutshell.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 9:43am EDT

re: John Wesley Harding

John Wesley Harding wrote:
This is one of the worst posts in history. Congrats.

Ha, ha, ha -thank you! I woke you up…

What puzzles me is that you don’t use my “worst post” as an opportunity to write a more correct narrative here (like other posters who disagree in my post do)…

I don’t think you are afraid of me -that I will challenge your perspective on the sport in a way you can’t deal with -my views are clearly of a minority’s perspective, so you shouldn’t be afraid of lack of support and upvotes. And your knowledge of the theme is so good, and your ability to formulate coherent reasoning ditto, so I just have to say it’s really strange you constrict yourself to one liners a lot of us think is an immature way of debating..

This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 9:47am EDT

re: justanothercuriousdude

The thread topic ignores the elephant in the room. Quite apart from issues of speed, how much more drugs will Jakob need to beat a doped world record - because there's no way he takes it without them.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 9:57am EDT

re: Armstronglivs

Armstronglivs wrote:
The thread topic ignores the elephant in the room. Quite apart from issues of speed, how much more drugs will Jakob need to beat a doped world record - because there's no way he takes it without them.

I still don’t know:

1. A speed problem.

2. An injury problem he can’t come fully back from.

3. Dope.

But I hope the best…

1 week ago 04/25/2024 10:03am EDT

re: Armstronglivs

Armstronglivs wrote:
The thread topic ignores the elephant in the room. Quite apart from issues of speed, how much more drugs will Jakob need to beat a doped world record - because there's no way he takes it without them.

You don't know if the record is doped.

For sure it's possible to beat a doped record clean.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 10:12am EDT

re: Armstronglivs

Armstronglivs wrote:
The thread topic ignores the elephant in the room. Quite apart from issues of speed, how much more drugs will Jakob need to beat a doped world record - because there's no way he takes it without them.

Well put

1 week ago 04/25/2024 11:01am EDT

re: zuzuzuzuzuzuzuzu

zuzuzuzuzuzuzuzu wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
The thread topic ignores the elephant in the room. Quite apart from issues of speed, how much more drugs will Jakob need to beat a doped world record - because there's no way he takes it without them.
You don't know if the record is doped.
For sure it's possible to beat a doped record clean.

You are right we don't know for sure, but I would find it incredibly hard to believe it isn't doped.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 11:17am EDT

re: zuzuzuzuzuzuzuzu

zuzuzuzuzuzuzuzu wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
The thread topic ignores the elephant in the room. Quite apart from issues of speed, how much more drugs will Jakob need to beat a doped world record - because there's no way he takes it without them.
You don't know if the record is doped.
For sure it's possible to beat a doped record clean.

Come on man... the record from 1998 still stands after improved methods of PED detection, super shoes, pacing lights etc.

And sure it's possible to beat a doped record clean, but that is a very very low possibility given how advanced the sport was already back and how deep the talent pool was. These aspects haven't shifted much since and likely won't unless we get into gene doping soon. The person who breaks this record will be doped to the gills.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 11:19am EDT

re: Armstronglivs

Armstronglivs wrote:
The thread topic ignores the elephant in the room. Quite apart from issues of speed, how much more drugs will Jakob need to beat a doped world record - because there's no way he takes it without them.

For you, there’s an elephant in every room so Jakob’s is pretty easy to ignore.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 11:22am EDT

re: Trollminator

Trollminator wrote:
The answer is that the 5K field is weak

It’s not weak for time-trialers, it is weak tactically. Kejelcha, Aregawi, Kiplimo and even Kipkorir and times are egregious offenders in this. The more a race is a breakaway, the better they do. As soon as they are asked to figure out how to win a slower race, they completely struggle. In XC, the roads, and lightning-fast DL meets where tactics come into play less, they look great. Barega and Cheptegei have tactical sense but their priority is the 10,000 and both seem to be a bit fragile if they try to do 2 events. Guys like Chelimo (in the earlier years), Jakob, Katir last year, Grijalva and Krop outperform their fitness relative to the 4 because they can handle slow races.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 11:34am EDT

re: THOUGHTSLEADER

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
The answer is that the 5K field is weak
It’s not weak for time-trialers, it is weak tactically. Kejelcha, Aregawi, Kiplimo and even Kipkorir and times are egregious offenders in this. The more a race is a breakaway, the better they do. As soon as they are asked to figure out how to win a slower race, they completely struggle. In XC, the roads, and lightning-fast DL meets where tactics come into play less, they look great. Barega and Cheptegei have tactical sense but their priority is the 10,000 and both seem to be a bit fragile if they try to do 2 events. Guys like Chelimo (in the earlier years), Jakob, Katir last year, Grijalva and Krop outperform their fitness relative to the 4 because they can handle slow races.

I agree 100% with everything you said. Which brings up an interesting side point, to me. This is why I think Jakob is way better 3k/5k and possibly 10k runner, because he does so damn well in tactical 5000's but not as well in tactical 1500's. As a fan I wish he would just move up and be on his way.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 12:21pm EDT

re: THOUGHTSLEADER

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
The answer is that the 5K field is weak
It’s not weak for time-trialers, it is weak tactically. Kejelcha, Aregawi, Kiplimo and even Kipkorir and times are egregious offenders in this. The more a race is a breakaway, the better they do. As soon as they are asked to figure out how to win a slower race, they completely struggle. In XC, the roads, and lightning-fast DL meets where tactics come into play less, they look great. Barega and Cheptegei have tactical sense but their priority is the 10,000 and both seem to be a bit fragile if they try to do 2 events. Guys like Chelimo (in the earlier years), Jakob, Katir last year, Grijalva and Krop outperform their fitness relative to the 4 because they can handle slow races.

Nailed it. Although on that point, I'm not convinced Grijalva's ceiling is 12:52 based on how tactical that race was in Florence where he set that PR. I wouldn't be surprised if he was capable of running around 12:48 with better pacing (still a big gap to the big four though.)

1 week ago 04/25/2024 1:25pm EDT

re: brunner

brunner wrote:
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
It’s not weak for time-trialers, it is weak tactically. Kejelcha, Aregawi, Kiplimo and even Kipkorir and times are egregious offenders in this. The more a race is a breakaway, the better they do. As soon as they are asked to figure out how to win a slower race, they completely struggle. In XC, the roads, and lightning-fast DL meets where tactics come into play less, they look great. Barega and Cheptegei have tactical sense but their priority is the 10,000 and both seem to be a bit fragile if they try to do 2 events. Guys like Chelimo (in the earlier years), Jakob, Katir last year, Grijalva and Krop outperform their fitness relative to the 4 because they can handle slow races.
I agree 100% with everything you said. Which brings up an interesting side point, to me. This is why I think Jakob is way better 3k/5k and possibly 10k runner, because he does so damn well in tactical 5000's but not as well in tactical 1500's. As a fan I wish he would just move up and be on his way.

What has he ever run that makes you think he could be just as good at 10000m? He finished 12th in a U20 World XC race and his wins in European XC were against B level fields. On the roads, he’s managed a 27:54 10K.

1 week ago 04/25/2024 1:31pm EDT

re: surgeical

surgeical wrote:
Nailed it. Although on that point, I'm not convinced Grijalva's ceiling is 12:52 based on how tactical that race was in Florence where he set that PR. I wouldn't be surprised if he was capable of running around 12:48 with better pacing (still a big gap to the big four though.)

Definitely agree. He isn’t too far off Krop/Fisher in that next tier even if his PR isn’t there. He’s still outperforming to finish as high up as he has. That’s why people thinking of Nur/Woody/Klecker as a medal contender based on Luis is probably off. He has shown more in all sorts of races (DL, Worlds heats) outside of US-based ones. It just isn’t as consistent as Grant or in a really fast one yet.

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Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year

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