Marathon prediction ?

I wouldn't worry about the time it starts as much as trying to get in the elite group or the front.

But what if the elite group runs a 2:30 pace there’s no chance I’m holding onto them

Looks like sub-2:40 from the workouts but would expect something faster than a 77 half. I know you wrote you didn't push in the 2nd half but that could also read as couldn't push, only you can evaluate that. Is 77 a PB or have you run faster? It's not usually possible to string a recent half back to back in a marathon unless the goal of the half was to run true GMP or conditions/course were much less favorable than the marathon.

For what it's worth, I'm targeting 2:40 at Boston and I don't think I would be able to hit those paces at that volume of which you do, especially the 15x1K workout.

You ran the half marathon untapered, in bad conditions, and didn't put max effort into it? I think going for sub 2:35 would be reasonable but I wouldn't go out much harder than that. Depending on your effort level for that half and your workouts 2:35-2:40 seems attainable. What's your weekly mileage look like?

Yeah that’s the thing 77 was a bit of a disappointment even tho I didn’t push it felt like a pointless race at the end as the plan wasn’t to do it GMP .

It was one of those races were the first half was going pretty much to plan (35 mins at 10km) but then the person I was running with stopped and it was heavy winds and I just kind of mentally decided to take it a bit easier considering I had a lot of heavy weeks to go still in training . so dropped the pace to 3:45 ish in the second 10km heart rate dropped to low 160 in this period.

what do you think though- thanks for the advice

Yeah exactly didn’t put full effort it in.
good luck with 2:40 man that’s my goal too but we’ll see.

In regards to mileage I’ve averaged 110km with 70km bike this year including a couple of deload weeks.

However, I’ve started a 6 week block for the marathon where I’m looking to work towards a peak week of 160

did 140 last week , hopeuflly 145 this week and so on until the 160

What abkut you what’s your mileage like ?

It’s a little hard to say without knowing how your long runs have gone. Sounds like you are still building. But I’d say 2:40 is a reasonable goal now. Faster? Possibly, but you will get more feedback from the next few weeks.

Your mileage looks good with your average being 110 before increasing. Honestly I don't think it's necessary for you to get up to 160k in 6 weeks time from the base you already have, but if you're handling it well then go for it!

For me, I started building back in December. For 12 weeks pre taper I averaged around 120. But my "peak" weeks hovered around 130 with the highest being 150. One hard weekday workout and alternating between easy and hard long runs every other week.

Your workouts are being done with solid milage buildup already, and it's good that you are emphasizing threshold efforts for the marathon as this will help goal pace feel more attainable. I would say in your last 3-4 weeks, try to throw in 13-20k at your marathon effort in a long run and see how that goes (Can start at 2:40 pace and go from there). Maybe take out or do a light weekday workout that week with the higher mileage you have going and gauge how that feels. You seem ready to crush 2:40 but that will give you lots of confidence going into the race.

It's kind of impossible to interpret these sessions without some more context. Your max heart rate could be 170, or it could be 200, which would change things a lot.

15 x 1km off of 60s at 3:24 is a pretty solid workout for sub 2:40 target and indicates to me alone that you can probably run sub 2:40. But again I'd probably be assuming you could run 1:12 off of something like that, because if I was doing it then I'd be aiming for around HMP too, only running 77min regardless of the reason is a bit concerning.

I agree, you should aim for a sub2:40 even though your workouts could indicate more (since you "only" ran 1:17 in the half it may indicate that sub2:40 is not possible but I assume you were in full training).

The marathon is LONG.

Thanks man - really appreciate it .

so did you only do one threshold workout week or by hard so you mean speed ?
also where the rest of your km were easy even in the peak weeks (excluding your alternating long run)?

Yeah idk it’s weird why I ran 77 it’s the one thing that’s bugging me as to thinking 240 isn’t possible.

im only 20 so I think my max HR is around 200 minimum

I’ve ran faster then 77 pace as part of a training run this block which included 5 floats for context but this was my first official half marathon race been more focused on shorter stuff since getting back into running 7 months ago

Im gonna do a 3 X 7km workout this weekend as part of my long run .
if I run the 7kms at MP at a bit faster then 2:40 pace so let’s say 3:40 ish would this be a good indicator of if I can run 2:40 in the marathon (3:48)

Yeah I would think a workout like that will tell you if sub-2:40 is possible. Low-160s HR for 3:45s at the end of the half is the right sort of ballpark. Would guess you could push up to high 160s/low 170s (would err on the side of caution & stick to mid to upper 160s). I've always like something like 10 @ GMP in a long run (later stages) in a normal high mileage training week as a good predictor. 8-10 E, 10 @ 6-flat, 2-3 E. Something like that. The 3 x 7k does something similar. You may find yourself able to go faster. Remember that you're young and the marathon is a long distance. 3 x 7k is still different from holding it together 35k-42k. Dial in a good fueling plan. You have some good fitness to run something quick.

Thanks man really appreciate the advice

good luck with your running too

Since the mileage I was doing is something I'm not normally used to, I tried to stick with one solid workout during the week. Typically this was about 10k worth of threshold work/half marathon efforts on a Tuesday or Wednesday. Things like 3x2 mile, 2x3 mile, 6x1 mile etc. Occasionally did a straight 4-5 mile tempo with a couple 400s after but that took more out of me. Every once in a while (3-4 weeks), I would do something like mile repeats at 10k pace instead for something "faster". I cut out the VO2 stuff in this cycle. I don't think it's a waste to do fast speed work but for me personally I benefit much more from threshold work for marathons. If you like doing speed like that, then don't change what you're doing.

Other days were either easy or steady running, and usually would just go off how I was feeling on the day. And as I said, long run workouts at marathon pace would be every other week. I worked up to 21k goal pace as my last really big workout before tapering. Non-workout long runs I'd run easy or steady but incorporated some elevation as I was training specific for Boston.

Did you run any recent 5k or 10km times

How was Boston ?

Man it was a tough day for me! Lots of issues early on in the race with cramping, side stitches etc even after a conservative start. All of this happening in the first 10K! By mile 10 I knew it was going to be a bad day if I kept pushing, so I progressively slowed down and tried to just enjoy it. I ran a 2:56. Pathetic time for the amount of work and fitness I was in, but that's how it goes sometimes. Simply wasn't good enough on the day.

I am hit or miss at the distance it seems. My last marathon I comfortably went 2:46 on even splits, and my training was much less than what I did for Boston.

Definitely relate man! Sometimes it’s just not ur day the distance is entirely unforgiving ,

running sub 3 despite all the challenges you faced is still something to be proud of even if if you've missed your A goal, although I know that’s easier said then done

You’ll be back I’m sure !