Pace advice for marathon

Given your build-up, I'd suggest running 6:50 pace until 20-22 miles then upping the pace to whatever feels comfortable for the remainder.

That 16 mile marathon pace test is solid, if it comes at the end of a big week. But since you're only running 3 days per week your going into every run almost completely fresh, very little fatigue in your legs. So 6:33 for 16 miles probably feels very manageable because it's really not that difficult. But if I had to put money on it, I'd bet that you have a pretty big crash at 20 miles if you run 6:33 pace in the marathon.

Get the sub-3 in the bank, and come back again when your baby is no longer a newborn and you can train a little more. I think it's mentally better to finish knowing you had more to give and using that as motivation for the next one.

I have to agree with the poster above. At least for me, volume was critical for being able to keep my pace during the last few miles of a marathon (I had several very painful positive splits in the marathon before finally figuring it out). Your training has likely prepared you to run a fast 20 miles, but the last 6 could hurt. I would advise going out conservatively this time and picking it up that last 10k if you are able. Good luck! Let us know how it goes.

But I'm not necessarily suggesting 6:55 pace, but maybe something more moderate like 6:45.

Thanks for the advice. The one thing I will add is that given shifts the test wasn’t on completely fresh legs. the runs for the 2wk training period prior were:

13/3: 8.74m (40 min of tempo)

15/3: 7.85m (5min zone 4 intervals)

16/3: 20m (0.25 zone 3, 0.75 zone 2 per mile for 16 miles)

18/3: 6.36m (24min of tempo)

19/3: 5.69m (3min zone 4 intervals).

21/3: marathon simulator

That's still a lot of recovery between each run. I've been there with the tiredness you get from work and a newborn but I think there's a big difference between that and the muscular fatigue you get from running.

The way I would think about it is like this: what would feel worse? Running 6:30-6:35, crashing and missing your target but knowing you gave everything, or getting a solid sub-3 but thinking there was probably more in the tank?

You are absolutely right. If I missed the 3 I’d be unhappy with myself. I think I’ll set off at a conservative pace and then see how I’m feeling around the 20-22 mile mark and potentially pick up the pace. I’m planning on another Marathon in October so I can review based on Manchester and for once get a solid training block in.

I think that's the smart choice, especially if you have another one lined up this year. I don't think you'll regret running sub-3 for the first time!

Folks have already given you some solid advice. I would go out at 6:55-7:00 pace through 5k or 10k and then run as many 6:50 miles in a row as you can. It looks like you've had a solid 8 weeks but the marathon is unforgiving to life events & being off on your pacing by even a small margin. It sounds like you ran a half marathon PB in that 16 miler. The previous half marathon would be more like sub-3:05 shape on 3 runs/week. 6:30-6:40 pace is probably a bit ambitious. It might feel like good through halfway but the 6:30s can change to 7:30, 8:00, 8:30 pace, very quickly and cause you to lose a lot more time than if you fall off of 6:50s late. I just wouldn't feel comfortable saying to go with the max end of the spectrum on limited mileage. This should be a proper sub-3 attempt. If you can drop some 6:40s or faster past 20 miles then go for it at that point.

Just an update. Nature kind of forced my hand in the end and gave me a terrible cough with a sore throat for the 4 days leading up to the event! Coming off 3 night shifts hasn't been fun!

Finished it today, most miles up to the 23rd were between 6.39-46 pace and felt easy, then miles 24-26 dropped to just over 7 minutes a mile (suddenly harder to maintain). .then a final charge for the last half mile at 6.29 as the 3hr pacer caught me! (Manchester both times have measured at 26.5 miles, maybe due to the short measurement controversy a few years ago?) for a finish of 2:58:44.

Thanks all for the advice the other week, next block I'm gonna increase the milage and find an event where I only have to run 26.3 or so!!

That’s a nice result, especially given the training, life stress, mild illness, and hot pace. Way to hang tough. Congratulations!

Also, it’s tough to know distance regarding tangents. Nearly all my (> 20) marathons have been GPS measured 26.32-26.4.

Nice work OP. Wouldn't worry about the added GPS distance. Sometimes buildings mess with the signal a bit. It's really hard to run the tangent to a T. Most races end up with a little extra distance. Would actually think the course was short if you get the exact distance or a little under.

Congratulations, that's a really good result based on your training. There's a lot more there if you get to a place where you can push up to 60 then 75+ miles per week

Congratulations! Sub 3 is a great result.