Spring Marathon - 2:50 too cautious?

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Since you’ve never broken three hours, just targeting that seems like the smart play. Once you have that feather in your cap, you can take some shots at faster times.

You don't think that's a bit too cautious? Before this cycle I would have been more than happy with that, but I've been pleasantly surprised with the longer runs so far.

I am shooting for a sub 2:50 but have slightly slower times for the workouts/ half marathon. I think that 2:45 is aggressive, but definitely doable. Especially if your workouts are done in trainers and not super shoes. Even if you’re working out in super shoes, I think you have the mileage and workouts to do it.

I've run most of them in a pair of Endorphin Pro 2s that have about 200 miles in them. Do you usually run workouts in trainers or supers?

A 1:17 half on 60mpw translates to about a 250 but anything can happen in a ‘thon.

Targeting 3:00 is way too cautious. Your workouts suggest that 2:45 is quite doable, but I'd be careful given your history of blowing up. Lock in on 2:50 pace through 20 miles and then see how you feel.

A target of 2:59 off those workouts and that mileage is ridiculously cautious, you'll have so much left in the tank at the end.

Without seeing any of your other workouts, it looks like 6:20 pace is reasonable, which brings you home at 2:46. But if all your other marathons have been disasters, you might want to be a bit more cautious and run 6:25 until 20 miles then drop the pace as much as you can. That would be comfortably under 2:50

I didn’t want to put my whole schedule in, partly because Daniels workouts can be lengthy to write out. Here are a few more if you find that’s helpful reference. Most of what I’ve put in are a mix of Q1 and Q2. I’ve also run the I workouts around 5:25-5:30 pace, which I find a bit challenging given most of them come after 45-60 min of easy running. Most of my easy running during the longer runs are around 7:45 pace.

14 - 6E, 3 @ 5:58, 3 min E, 2 @ 5:53, 2 min E, 1 @ 5:51
15 – 6E, 3 x 2T w/2 min rest, 1T. 6:00/5:49/5:51/5:48 on theT miles
17 – 3 w/u, 6 @ 6:14, 1@ 7:45, 4 @ 6:13, 1 @ 5:47
17 – 8 @ 7:50, 8 @ 6:19, 1 cool down

Have you pinpointed why you think you've failed at the other marathon attempts? Fueling/pacing/weather issues? You PBs say low-2:40s is possible. The workouts support a 2:45 attempt. 2:50 seems like a fallback goal. I think pacing for 2:45-flat on a good weather day wouldn't result in anything other than running that time or high-2:40s. Mileage and long runs look good. Unless you need to mentally cross off sub-2:50 you should go after what your training indicates.

What marathon are you doing? Fast course? Favorable weather?

I think it was mainly lack of mileage and harder long efforts, but also unexpected cramping. That first one was the first year I started running. 2nd one, I ran more mileage with multiple 20+ runs but had some twinging in my calves halfway through the race. Both were November marathons in IN and weather was favorable. I was a bit prone to calf cramping in sports growing up, but for the race I want to say it wasn't fueling related. It started at the 13 mile mark without missing any fuel stations. I plan to have some mustard packs on hand for this upcoming one since I've heard that can help, but I'm open to other options. It's in Carmel, IN, in April so hopefully weather won't be awful but a bit more unpredictable than the others I've done.

Your goal should be to do your best, not run a specific time. Here's why: you are setting yourself up for disappointment regardless of outcome if you pick a specific time.

Also, 22 miles at 6:40 at the end of a hard training week suggests that you are already in 2:50 or better shape.

Halfway through the race is a little early for calf twinging/cramping. I would look at goal pace or fueling again. 60-90g carbs/hour. Aid stations don't usually get you close to that. That might be 4-6 gels + carbohydrate drink mix. Add in salt tabs too (2-3). Practice in training. Get the gut used to increased food intake.

Sorry, should have added more details - I did take gels at 6/11/15/20 in the second marathon. It was probably pacing also but my pride struggles with that. I'd run several halfs before that at faster paces (1:22-1:24) and didn't have any cramping at all.

I've read mixed stuff on cramping solutions. Have you had success with salt tablets vs. things like mustard, hot shot, etc?

I've had succes with salt tablets, they work quite well. I'd stay away from mustard.

60-90 carbs/hour is a good target. I believe I had 6 or 7 gels when I ran 2:40(:15) at Chicago. The role of carbs can't be understated.

Also, I think you have a good shot at 2:45. As someone who missed his goal time by 15 seconds, I'd also highly recommend pacing the first half for 2:46 and then shooting for a negative split.

Training looks solid and times at other distances indicate 2:50 is well within your reach. I blew up my first few marathons too, so I get the trepidation.

i say start at 6:40 pace for about 15 miles. if you have a bit of a bad day you should be able to hold that pace. if you feel good pick it up to 6:30 pace until 21, at which point youll be able to smell the finish and pace will simply be whatever life you have left.

good luck. my first two marathons I tried for 2:50 but blew up. ran a 3:05 then a 3:01. 3rd time was the charm. I did more mileage than you and my half marathons were comparable. your times at shorter distances are superior to mine.

respect the distance but also your training. two tough marathons can happen- it does not mean you are destined to underperform at the distance.

your 5k is better than your half and your half seems better than your marathon. so what's your running economy like? i've had guys way faster than me at 10k but i beat them easily every time in the marathon. they are always the guys with uneconomical gaits, usually too bouncy. fine for 5k and 10k but not efficient over long distances. you might just be better suited to the shorter races.

Not sure. I've seen myself more prone to speed than endurance growing up. My stride may be a bit bouncy but I'm not aware of anything really unusual.

Any experience with different gels you can share? I used Gu and read a bit about SIS and Maurten, but Maurten in particular seems more like hype over the new thing.