IMO these are the records that I can say have a realistic shot at being broken. I would not be surprised if the Men's 200m, Women's 5k, or Women's 100m were broken at Paris, but betting against it is in my opinion, a pretty safe bet.
The most likely ones are right there in your OP. Men’s pole vault and shot put have been repeatedly broken by the same two athletes, so they’re odds on favorites for another. Jackson keeps getting close to the women’s 200.. this may be her best (? Last) chance.
Huge drop off in likelihood after that, though. It’s much less likely that men’s sprint records go down in Paris. Lyles et al are a ways away from Bolts records.
Heat will get in the way of every distance event from 1500 up.
The most likely ones are right there in your OP. Men’s pole vault and shot put have been repeatedly broken by the same two athletes, so they’re odds on favorites for another. Jackson keeps getting close to the women’s 200.. this may be her best (? Last) chance.
Huge drop off in likelihood after that, though. It’s much less likely that men’s sprint records go down in Paris. Lyles et al are a ways away from Bolts records.
Heat will get in the way of every distance event from 1500 up.
i don’t see jackson breaking the 200 record. i think her best shot was last year, and she knew that - there was a reason why she was unhappy about running 21.4 and 21.5 consistently, some of the fastest times ever.
IMO these are the records that I can say have a realistic shot at being broken. I would not be surprised if the Men's 200m, Women's 5k, or Women's 100m were broken at Paris, but betting against it is in my opinion, a pretty safe bet.
It's really time to see that Soviet women's 4x4 WR broken. A team of SML, Mu, Holmes, and maybe Gabby Thomas could have a shot.
It's really time to see that Soviet women's 4x4 WR broken. A team of SML, Mu, Holmes, and maybe Gabby Thomas could have a shot.
The US women won't be anywhere close the 4x400 world record this year.
Sydney should be OK this year, but Mu's training is geared towards the 1500, so she's not that fast in the 400 right now. Holmes and Thomas aren't fast enough in the 400 at the moment.
In order to break the 4x400 record, Sydney needs to be healthy, Mu needs to go back to being a 400/800 runner, and Britton Wilson needs to be healthy. So that's 3 women that would be fast enough. And then one other woman needs to get faster. Maybe Holmes, maybe Diggs, maybe Steiner.
So maybe by next year the US women will have a shot. But it's not happening this year.
The US women won't be anywhere close the 4x400 world record this year.
Sydney should be OK this year, but Mu's training is geared towards the 1500, so she's not that fast in the 400 right now. Holmes and Thomas aren't fast enough in the 400 at the moment.
In order to break the 4x400 record, Sydney needs to be healthy, Mu needs to go back to being a 400/800 runner, and Britton Wilson needs to be healthy. So that's 3 women that would be fast enough. And then one other woman needs to get faster. Maybe Holmes, maybe Diggs, maybe Steiner.
So maybe by next year the US women will have a shot. But it's not happening this year.
I don't like to predict US athlete's form too early in the season, especially in an Olympic year when many end up in amazing form at the Trials, but as it stands now, I agree it's very unlikely the US women will break the 4x4 WR, there are too many unanswered questions still.
The whole 'will she wont she?' with McLaughlin for a start. I am personally quite sure she will run, and will be in amazing form, but there are doubts there.
Then we have yet to see evidence that Steiner will be back to her best. Her last sprint race was her 4th place at the nationals last season, before she opted for surgery. She - rather bizarrely - ran 800m indoors this winter. Do we know why? Could it be the sprints are still too much for her body? Either way, her time was pretty poor at 2:17. That doesn't suggest she has a good 400m in her yet.
Britton Wilson still can't train pain free and at 100%. She is still cross training, and the clock is ticking.
The last time Mu ran a competitive 400m/4x4 was 2022, when she ran a 50.26 relay leg and 50.42 in the open.
So then we are left with Gabby Thomas, who can certainly run a sub 50 leg, but will politics play a role in her selection again? Alexis Holmes is proving she is a force over 400m, and she can certainly run a sub 49 leg. But who else? Diggs...again sub 50, but not sub 49.
The US are still clear favourites for the 4x4 title, Netherlands just doesn't have the depth, but the US is no way near looking like a 3:15 team.