Kenya and Ethiopia Olympic marathon team consideration - who should be chosen?

Kenyan teams are pretty solidified now. Question remains if Tola will still be selected. Ethiopian women should be Assefa, Beriso, Kebede but Gotytom Gebreslase runs Hamburg next Sunday, so we will see.

Jepkosgei or Lokedi is a tough call. Id actually lean with Joyciline though i understand Lokedi being US-based makes her someone easy to root for.

🇰🇪 Men: Benson Kipruto, Alexander Mutiso, Eliud Kipchoge (reserve: Timothy Kiplagat)

🇰🇪 Women: Peres Jepchirchir, Helllen Obiri, Joyciline Jepkosgei (reserve: Sharon Lokedi)

Joyciline will make it over Sharon on time. She did run under the women's only WR.

🇪🇹 Men: Sisay Lemma, Tamirat Tola, Kenenisa Bekele (reserve: Shura Kitata)

🇪🇹 Women: Tigist Assefa, Worknesh Degefa, Almaz Ayana (reserve: Megertu Alemu)

Tola's NYC performance will override his London DNF.

Really happy for Jepchirchir. I was rooting for her to do well. If healthy and back to her old form, she could give Obiri a good scare in Paris. She historically excels in tactical races and runs well in heat and hills. Hoping Hasaan runs the marathon, will be a great showdown.

Nice to also see Jepkosgei have a good day, too. I could be wrong but I feel like she hasn’t been super consistent lately. 2:16 is fast and definitely puts her in the conversation, but I think Lokedi would be a safer option. 3 for 3 for podium finishes, good at tactical races and hills. Only a few seconds behind the heavy Olympic favorite.

She's such a joyous, positive personality with her big infectious smile she's bloody near impossible to root against. So happy for Jepchirchir and wish her well in Paris. The way she ran away from an inshape Brigid Kosgei in Tokyo makes her Obiri and Hasan's main threat in a tactical race.

🇰🇪 Men: Kipruto, Mutiso, Kipchoge (reserve: Chebet)

🇰🇪 Women: Obiri, Jepchirchir, Lokedi (reserve: Jeokosgei)
🇪🇹 Men: Tola, Lemma, Esa (reserve: Bekele)

🇪🇹 Women: Assefa, Beriso Shankule, Kebede (reserve: Ayana)

When are they having their trials?

Here's what I'm thinking and why, also how I see the possible strengths and weaknesses of each athlete: (and I didn't include being fast on a flat course as a strength because its almost a given with these men)

Kenya Men -

Eliud Kipchoge - I don't see him not being chosen and he's proven he's still good even though his consistency has dropped.

Strengths: Experience, Heat running - his experience is better than anyone really, 2xOlympic champion is about all you need to prove that and he's done well in the heat of Rio and Sapporo.

Weaknesses: Countering moves, Hills, age - Kipchoge loves to control the race and seems rarely able to counter a move as he's often the one making the move and leading from the front and centre. Boston doesn't help his case as far as hilly courses are concerned

Benson Kipruto - World leader and consistent performer

Strengths: Hills, no pacers, managing resources - his Boston performances from '21-'23 (1st,3rd,3rd) prove this. In Tokyo he held back slightly from Timothy Kiplagat but held strong till the end with a huge PB

Weaknesses: Never represented Kenya - not really a weakness but there's a lack of experience there

Alexander Mutiso - London win in 1st WMM

Strengths: Managing resources - He has ran 4 marathons and I think most if not all were positive spilts, however he has podiumed each time and I think this shows his strength at the end of the race and smartness to back off at times. In Valencia '22 Kiptum, Geay and Tola broke away but Mutiso ran down Tola and the next year he ran down Wolde and Kandie who tried to breakaway with Lemma.

Weaknesses: Making moves, no pacers - He hasn't races many marathons so has yet to run one without pacers. He also hasn't shown any real big move like you'd likely need to win in Paris and has more so been in time trials, and today he more dropped Bekele because he had slightly more left as they were both fading

Reserves (other possibilities)

Timothy Kiplagat - 2:02:55 is fast in Tokyo but 2nd place and only 13th at Worlds. He has ran well in the heat like in Abu Dhabi and in São Paulo (15k)

Evans Chebet - I don't think this would be a bad pick, when he's at his best he's incredible - fast and tactically great. Maybe a missed opportunity but I don't see him getting added to the team after being thus far left out

Ethiopia Men -

Sisay Lemma - obvious #1 pick for Ethiopia, won 3 strait races including 2 marathons - 2:01 and Boston win

Strengths: Strength - Strength is his strength, I don't think many people could have held on in Boston after how fast he went out, likewise 2:01 speaks for itself.

Weaknesses - Heat, experience - he DNF is Sapporo and though he won Boston he made it a time trial and was hanging on to win not moving away.

Tamirat Tola - despite today's DNF his NYC CR and general success the past 3 years are enough for me to want to include him

Strengths: Hills, experience - His NYC CR was really incredible on that course and he has a lot of experience from different kinds of races from Olympic 10000 up to Worlds marathon success.

Weaknesses: Countering moves, inconsistencies - He has a tendency to start leading a race when the pacers drop out but then often is unable to respond when someone challenges him like '22 Valencia Kiptum and today Bekele. Also a couple DNF's the last 2 years don't help his case

Kenenisa Bekele - I really want him to be selected and I actually think it would make sense too. It would actually do a lot for the race and sport in general is he's there and back to back 2:04:1x show he's still really really good.

Strengths: Being GOAT, managing resources - There's a reason we should never count him out, races like Berlin '19 show when he's fit he can judge his race well and come through a bad patch. I think he'd have a lot of pride to wear the Ethiopia vest one last time

Weaknesses: Inconsistencies, age - We all know he's had his fair share of bad marathons and a bunch of DNFs, much of the caused by injuries probably related to being 41 now

Reserves (other possibilities)

Derese Geleta - 2:03:27 in Seville was a breakthrough but the championship experience is not there, I think there's more to gain for Ethiopia by putting Kenenisa in instead

Mohamed Esa - 2nd in Boston was strong, he's young and proven he can do well on hills

This was longer than I expected, sorry. Will hopefully do the women's side in a bit

Great analysis. I don’t know if there will be a hint of politics in these selections, but if there is to be..

Kenya:

Kipchoge-NN/Nike Group

Benson-2RunningClub/Adidas

Mutiso-Ikaika/Adidas

-I foresee no issues, and think Mutiso/Kiplagat (Rosa/Nike) were the preferred picks, but there’ll be no controversy over picking the London winner. Kiplagat will clean up in Chicago/Berlin.

Ethiopia:

Sisay Lemma-Adidas (coached by Dedefo)

Kenenisa Bekele- Anta

Tadese Tola-Adidas (coached by Dedefo)

Gelete - Nike (coached by Haji Adilo I believe)

Esa- Nike (NN running team)

OK to me if there are politics, you take Gelete/Esa. And honestly I believe they will take Gelete. Adilo is a national coach and highly respected. Ethiopia puts a premium on times and I do think they will dock Tola for DNFing in Budapest as well. I’m dubious about Adilo getting an athlete on the womens side, unless Gebreslase can solve some of the fueling issues convincingly.

Women

Kenya

Hellen Obiri

Strengths: Hills, no pacers, finishing speed - Boston, NYC, Boston, can't do much better than that. Has won in close finishes

Weaknesses - "slow" PB, not even really a weakness cause she surely could go much faster if she ran that kind of race

Peres Jepchirchir - redeemed herself today

Strengths: consistency in any race, be it the Olympics, Boston, London, hot, hilly, cold she has proven her capabilities

Weaknesses: recent injuries - a few injuries have kept her from here best just before London and will need to be avoided if she is to retain her title in Paris

Sharon Lokedi or Joyciline Jepkosgei

I really don't know, Lokedi is more proven recently in hills but I think Jepkosgei may have been fitter this spring ever so slightly. Really tough decision, might lean Lokedi because of hilly races and winning NYC on a warmer day in '22

Other possibilities - Brigid Kosgei, Ruth Chepngetich, Rosemary Wanjiru, two 2:14 women not making the team!? Crazy but there London runs didn't cut it. Wanjiru for me hurt her chances with a poor Budapest showing

Ethiopia

Tigst Assefa - 2:11 WR, today was solid too

Strengths: 2:11

Weaknesses: lack of experience, hills, sprint finish- She is new to the marathon and looked indecisive today in a race that seems more likely to be akin to the Olympics at least more so than Berlin

Amane Beriso - World Champion

Strengths: Championship experience - she built on her good run in Boston last year to become world champion in the Budapest summer heat, experience she can draw upon in Paris

Weaknesses: Recent disappointment - Tokyo didn't go that amazingly

Sutume Kebede - Tokyo champion

Strengths: Recent form, her last three races have been exceptional and she is one of the few people to beat Obiri AND Hassan recently

Weaknesses: Lack of experience, hills - She has been around racing for a while but doesn't have the experience like others in championships races. Also Boston '21 didn't go well for her in 23rd place.

Other possibilities - Alemu Megertu and

Gotytom Gebreslase (to race Hamburg next week) - maybe need like 2:16 which feels unlikely

Yeah I thought and worried slightly about the politics, its an interesting point on Haji Adilo, I just hope they make decisions based on performance and credentials but theres a lot more to it that goes on I'm sure

Yes I’m just thinking right now on your tentative teams you have 4 Dedefo athletes and no Adilo athletes. The next men/women up would include 3 of Adilo’s athletes in Alemu/Gotytom/Gelete and then Esa. Is it unfair to make that the tiebreaker with pulling Tola? To me, Tola having made all the business decisions of late to DNF late in Budapest/London can fairly be an argument against. It’s quite close, and I could see them strategically going with Gelete who ran an extremely impressive Seville and has been outstanding of late.

EDIT: On the Kenyan women’s side I lean Jepkosgei over Lokedi. I think they’d favor her more extensive experience and 64 min half this spring. If you want to go the politics route, she is based year-round in Kenya and races domestically. Lokedi and her both seem like great people with great strength for the hills, so there really is no way to go wrong. Jepkosgeis PB and World Ranking can also be used if AK chooses to value them.

I am still not ready to write off Teferi. Big championships bring the best out in her. Fifth in Boston wasn’t that bad. She wouldn’t let them down as a reserve, just in case. I don’t think any other Ethiopian women are a chance of a medal but Senbere could run 6th or 7th.

You missed April Fools by a couple weeks lol.

All seriousness though, if they were going to pick someone like Teferi, I think Yeshaneh would be the superior choice

Ababel dropped out very late in Boston, after 40k when 12th. I am a fan, though. Five times a top 6 finisher in a major

Is there a reason why people are sleeping on Rosemary Wanjiru? I’d think she’d be chosen for sure…

Kenyan Men: Benson (for sure), Kipchoge, Munyao. Would not be surprised if Kiplagat gets put in instead though.

Kenyan Women: Obiri, Peres, Rosemary. I hope Lokedi gets in, but I don’t think she will.

Ethiopian Men: Lemma, Tola, Bekele.

Ethiopian Women: Assefa, Beriso, Kebebe. But man… leaving off Alemu, Gebreslase, and Worknesh Degefa (who nobody seems to be mentioning) is a really hard decision.

I think the reason is Tokyo was considered a pretty shallow field outside of Hassan. So, with Hassan struggling and it being a fast day with male pacers maybe you wanted a win or at least a 2:15. I think Jepkosgei taking down all but Assefa narrowly and Jepchirchir (meaning Alemu, Kosgei, Chepngetich, and more) deserves a lot of credit. Not to be harsh on Lokedi but it was a more limited field and Edna finishing 3rd underscores that ageless as she is. Out of all the spring performances for Kenya’s 3rd spot to me Jepkosgei’s Barcelona HM/London score highest.

Rosemary took down Berison and Hassan in Tokyo, which are huge wins…. And has the faster seasons best vs. Jepkosgei. Plus she won a major last year in another 2:16 time, whereas Jepkosgei’s marathons last year weren’t very good. Imo I’d think she’d be selected over Jepkosgei for these reasons, but maybe I am wrong.

We definitely have been underrating Wanjiru. I think it's because most of us assumed that it was down to Obiri, Chepngetich, Kosgei, and Jepchirchir and since Tokyo was much longer ago she wasn't in our minds as much. In many ways, the final slot probably comes down to which podium place is most impressive for the selectors: 2:16:14 silver, 2:16:24 for bronze, or a fast Boston silver.

Thoughtsleader, I think it's a little unfair to say that Tokyo was shallow except for Hassan. Beriso is the world champion and 5th fastest all time!