No keep the water station but spike the water with something. If it is warm and the pace drags, his confidence might result in him going for water three times.
You have to break Jacob's rhythm over the critical last stage of the race like Cheruiyot did in the WC 1500. This enabled Weightman to outkick him because Jacob was spent from having to hold off multiple moves from Cheruiyot. If you give him free reign, Jacob will squeeze you to death. Take the lead. Slow down. Force Jacob out of his rhythm. Even if he does regain the lead he will have used up energy. A leader can only hold off a finite number of attacks. Don't let Jacob run his race. Easier said than done of course.
Even if the field makes it a time trial, who can beat Jakob? He’s by far the most consistent and could probably take a crack at 12:40 in a TT peak fitness. Unless someone (Chep, Barega, etc.) has a perfect day, they would still need superb pacing. IMO he is pretty impossible to beat in a Championship style race. Fastest 1500 runner in the field and elite 5k PB just makes it easy for him. I don’t think there is a secret, really just get faster.
Unless someone blocks his path, Jakob can run his race. If the best runner in the race also has the best speed, he’s not likely to lose. Would your fancy strategies have worked against Aouita in 1984?
Of course Aouita had more speed than Jakob. I would say that, as one may see, Kiplimo outkicked Jakob at 3000m, Eliud and Cherono outkicked Hicham at 5000m, so one may outkick Jakob but it would help if one, due to fitness and tactics, is slightly more fresh for the last 100m. This is easier said than done but it is far from impossible.
You have to break Jacob's rhythm over the critical last stage of the race like Cheruiyot did in the WC 1500. This enabled Weightman to outkick him because Jacob was spent from having to hold off multiple moves from Cheruiyot. If you give him free reign, Jacob will squeeze you to death. Take the lead. Slow down. Force Jacob out of his rhythm. Even if he does regain the lead he will have used up energy. A leader can only hold off a finite number of attacks. Don't let Jacob run his race. Easier said than done of course.
Exactly. I don't think any individual right now is strong enough to both wear Jakob out and then kick to victory on their own. Thus this requires either good luck (Wightman had good luck of Cheruiyot using up Jakob's energy and he was able to capitalize on it) or teamwork (presumably Kenyans or Ethiopians sending out a sacrificial lamb to do like Cheruiyot did in the Worlds 1500 for a teammate to then capitalize on).
Be real...Jakob can't be beaten atm at 5k if he runs well and is healthy.
Only an in-form Cheptegei is better enough than him to outrun him from the gun if they set out at WR pace and maintain all the way i.e. they go sub 12:40. If it's anything a tick slower, Jakob can PR in the low-12:40s and will win. If he can take the lead and "squeeze" his opponents over the final 5 laps, at any pace, then he's going to win. B/c you lrbf have all forgotten he took down Cram's 2k Euro record with his 4:50.0. Whether race pace is 12:55 or 13:25, his last 2k is simply better than everyone else's. Perhaps if it slows below 13:30 the race becomes random enough for the guy with the best 800PR to win, but when run at anything between 12:40 and 13:30, Jakob won't lose unless he gives it away himself.
He's clearly the king at global 5k champ racing right now. Probably better than he is at 1500.
Let's give the white boy credit for establishing this level of dominance over the African horde...it's not easy, and for many years, such a thing was not credible here on LR.
Exactly. I don't think any individual right now is strong enough to both wear Jakob out and then kick to victory on their own. Thus this requires either good luck (Wightman had good luck of Cheruiyot using up Jakob's energy and he was able to capitalize on it) or teamwork (presumably Kenyans or Ethiopians sending out a sacrificial lamb to do like Cheruiyot did in the Worlds 1500 for a teammate to then capitalize on).
If you think Abel Kipsang was employed as a sacrificial lamb for Cheruiyot, you haven’t been following.
You have to break Jacob's rhythm over the critical last stage of the race like Cheruiyot did in the WC 1500. This enabled Weightman to outkick him because Jacob was spent from having to hold off multiple moves from Cheruiyot. If you give him free reign, Jacob will squeeze you to death. Take the lead. Slow down. Force Jacob out of his rhythm. Even if he does regain the lead he will have used up energy. A leader can only hold off a finite number of attacks. Don't let Jacob run his race. Easier said than done of course.
This is what Vingegaard and the Jumbo team did to destroy Pogacar during stage 11 of this year Tour de France.
They attacked him multiple times from far away of the finish line. He covered at least 4 attacks.
Why would Jakob chase a decoy? He’s just as smart as you and would also know if it was a ridiculous pace. Who is going to attack after a ridiculously fast first 3-4 laps?
You haven't watched the race have you?
And to answer your second question: Ismael Kirui did, and that's how he beat two of the best kickers of all time.
I suppose you’re referring to Kirui’s 1995 win. He did run some variable pacing but the lead pack ran right with him and I don’t see how that gave him an advantage. If Geb had been in the race, Kirui would not have won.
Your assumption seems to be that running 67s and then some 60s will affect Jakob more than other runners. There are no studies available but I believe that strategy would take more out of the slower twitch-muscle runners.
And to answer your second question: Ismael Kirui did, and that's how he beat two of the best kickers of all time.
I suppose you’re referring to Kirui’s 1995 win. He did run some variable pacing but the lead pack ran right with him and I don’t see how that gave him an advantage. If Geb had been in the race, Kirui would not have won.
Your assumption seems to be that running 67s and then some 60s will affect Jakob more than other runners. There are no studies available but I believe that strategy would take more out of the slower twitch-muscle runners.
He was talking about the 1993 win, not 1995. He beat Geb and Skah in that race, give it a watch.
I suppose you’re referring to Kirui’s 1995 win. He did run some variable pacing but the lead pack ran right with him and I don’t see how that gave him an advantage. If Geb had been in the race, Kirui would not have won.
Your assumption seems to be that running 67s and then some 60s will affect Jakob more than other runners. There are no studies available but I believe that strategy would take more out of the slower twitch-muscle runners.
He was talking about the 1993 win, not 1995. He beat Geb and Skah in that race, give it a watch.
Kirui ran the first 3000m in 7:45, which was WR pace at the time, and hung on. The other Kenyan running a few laps 10-15 meters in front of the pack, was meaningless.
If Cheptegei is at the top of his game, he can use the same strategy and it’s the one that has the best chance of beating Jakob.
The only way you beat Jakob in a championship 5k is hope that he makes a stupid hard surge to the front and leads the middle of the race without actually running fast enough to drop everyone. Pretty much what he did in the 1500 at the world championships.
But if he runs smart you're not going to beat him. Unless Cheptegei is in prime fitness and has a pacer for 3600 meters at world record pace, then there's a small chance he could hold on and it would be too fast for Jakob to stay in touch.
The only way you beat Jakob in a championship 5k is hope that he makes a stupid hard surge to the front and leads the middle of the race without actually running fast enough to drop everyone. Pretty much what he did in the 1500 at the world championships.
But if he runs smart you're not going to beat him. Unless Cheptegei is in prime fitness and has a pacer for 3600 meters at world record pace, then there's a small chance he could hold on and it would be too fast for Jakob to stay in touch.
If Jakob put in a hard surge in the middle of the race it would be punishing for the other runners, but of course the guy with the best speed is not going to do that.