National XC 2022 predictions

RobDragons wrote:

oldmanrunnerguydifdevice wrote:

RobDragons - Fair enough. I honestly have no clue where CTs TT was or if it was even a 5K not a 3 mile. LibertyBell will be first real indication I think of where they are really at. I do not know much about this CT team though I do know their coach, and I know quite a bit about CO xc in general. FWIW last year Valor had a 15:32 ave at Liberty Bell and Cheyanne Mountain had a 15:31 ave. (this seems to debunk the need for 7 under 15:30 as you claimed as CM was second at Runinglane) CTs time trial was a15:38 ave so pretty close.

I remember the first year of Nike Nationals. Then they didnt have qualifiers and went on National Rankings. Smoky Hill girls got invited as an At-Large team. They took second. They were ranked low because their times were not impressive - Times ran at altitude. Over the years as Colorado has shown they are completive at Nationals the state has gotten more benefit of the doubt.

I could be very wrong about CT and to be honest I hope I am - as harsh as that sounds. I have been adamant about the location of the time trial being a major factor.

Certainly. CT looks to be a beast this year and will certainly be more competitive than last year.

National time predictions will be a little tricky with top teams doing Nike and not much can compare to the speed of last years Garmin course.

There are so many variables and factors, Southlake only peaks for State. So Nationals doesn't always represent how well they ran during the season.

The top 5 average teams at Garmin last year were all under 15:00. Southlake had a decent looking 15:29 average and finished 21st in Gold!

Ahuidu wrote:

RobDragons wrote:

Certainly. CT looks to be a beast this year and will certainly be more competitive than last year.

National time predictions will be a little tricky with top teams doing Nike and not much can compare to the speed of last years Garmin course.

There are so many variables and factors, Southlake only peaks for State. So Nationals doesn't always represent how well they ran during the season.

The top 5 average teams at Garmin last year were all under 15:00. Southlake had a decent looking 15:29 average and finished 21st in Gold!

I agree that Southlake does better at the end of the season than the beginning.

Take a look at 2019. At the beginning of the season they were losing to Flower Mound badly, which made it look like they were going to miss out on the NXN 10-peat. Then at state and NXR they destroyed all the Texas teams.

Also, is 21st considered an underperformance for Southlake?

They only lost to Grapevine by only a few points at nxr.

oldmanrunnerguydifdevice wrote:

RobDragons - Fair enough. I honestly have no clue where CTs TT was or if it was even a 5K not a 3 mile. LibertyBell will be first real indication I think of where they are really at. I do not know much about this CT team though I do know their coach, and I know quite a bit about CO xc in general. FWIW last year Valor had a 15:32 ave at Liberty Bell and Cheyanne Mountain had a 15:31 ave. (this seems to debunk the need for 7 under 15:30 as you claimed as CM was second at Runinglane) CTs time trial was a15:38 ave so pretty close.

I remember the first year of Nike Nationals. Then they didnt have qualifiers and went on National Rankings. Smoky Hill girls got invited as an At-Large team. They took second. They were ranked low because their times were not impressive - Times ran at altitude. Over the years as Colorado has shown they are completive at Nationals the state has gotten more benefit of the doubt.

I could be very wrong about CT and to be honest I hope I am - as harsh as that sounds. I have been adamant about the location of the time trial being a major factor.

COXCfan wrote:

oldmanrunnerguydifdevice wrote:

RobDragons - Fair enough. I honestly have no clue where CTs TT was or if it was even a 5K not a 3 mile. LibertyBell will be first real indication I think of where they are really at. I do not know much about this CT team though I do know their coach, and I know quite a bit about CO xc in general. FWIW last year Valor had a 15:32 ave at Liberty Bell and Cheyanne Mountain had a 15:31 ave. (this seems to debunk the need for 7 under 15:30 as you claimed as CM was second at Runinglane) CTs time trial was a15:38 ave so pretty close.

I remember the first year of Nike Nationals. Then they didnt have qualifiers and went on National Rankings. Smoky Hill girls got invited as an At-Large team. They took second. They were ranked low because their times were not impressive - Times ran at altitude. Over the years as Colorado has shown they are completive at Nationals the state has gotten more benefit of the doubt.

I could be very wrong about CT and to be honest I hope I am - as harsh as that sounds. I have been adamant about the location of the time trial being a major factor.

CT is good, but I'd still pick Vista over them. We'll see how that TT stacks up to their actual 5k races...