National XC 2022 predictions

NXR top 2 Boys team predictions:
South -
1. Jesuit - returns their whole team. They can do something special at nationals based on their 3200 times.
2. Southlake Carroll - returns their 1-6 and placed 2nd at NXR SE
Watchlist - Woodlands, Atascocita

Heartland -
1. Wayzata - returns 5 guys under 16
2. Dowling Catholic - returns 5 guys under 16:34
Watchlist - Millard West (they will get second if they can find a #5. With their 5th returner at 18:25, it’s hard to predict them to find one) / Iowa City

Northeast -
1. Union Catholic - placed 4th at nationals and returns 5 guys and another transfer that will be scoring
2. CBA - a predominantly dominant team in the NE and returns 6 guys.
Watchlist: Haddonfield Memorial / Bishop Hendricken / Cherokee / Hall High / Coe Brown Academy

California:
1. Newbury Park - returns 5 sub-15 guys.
2. Grenada - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC
Watchlist: Great Oak

Southwest:
1. Valor Christian - placed 9th and returns 4 scorers. There’s a bunch of freshmen looking to close the gap.
2. Niwot - returns 5 sub-16 guys
Watchlist: Mountain View, Skyridge, Riverton, Corner Canyon, Mountain Vista (losing lots of seniors but they always reload), Cherokee Trail, American Fork (loses 5 seniors but always seems to reload like crazy)

Southeast:
1. Belen Jesuit Prep - a Perronial powerhouse that only loses 2 guys
2. McCallie - returns 5 guys under 16:18
Watchlist: Bolles / Brentwood / University High

Midwest:
1. Carmel - returns 5 guys under 9:49
2. Center Grove - returns 4 guys under 16:18, and also another 4:29 guy.
Watchlist: Liberty North, Mason, Hinsdale Central, Brebeuf Jesuit Prep (if they find a 5th. It will be interesting if they get one. It’s not a big school) / Plainfield / Zionsville Community / Columbus North

Northwest:
1. Jesuit - got 3rd at nattys last year and returns 4 guys from that varsity squad. I think they’ll find a 5th based on their depth.
2. Bishop Blanchet - returns a 15:27 average
Watchlist: Lincoln, Franklin, Crater, Boise Senior, Rocky Mountain

New York:
1. Corning - placed 2nd at regions but returns their 2-6
2. St Anthony’s - placed 10th at feds but returns 6 varsity guys
Watchlist: FM / Burnt Hills / Saratoga Springs

Girls top 2 NXR predictions
California:
1. Buchanan - placed second at nations / returns all scorers
2. Great Oak - returns the whole varsity team and an 18:26 average
Watchlist: Newbury Park / Oak Ridge / JSerra (2 sub-4:50 1500 freshmen are going there)

Heartland -
1. Wayzata - placed 5th at NXR, returns everyone, and adds Abbey Nechanicky, who missed out on NXR
2. Olathe West - placed 4th at NXR / returns everyone
Watchlist: St Paul Highland Park / Minnetonka

South -
1. Southlake Carroll - won NXR last year and returns 6 girls
2. Lucas Lovejoy - placed 19th at nationals and returns 5 girls
Watchlist: Flower Mound, Venom

Southeast:
1. Cuthbertson - placed 14th at nationals and returns all scorers
2. Morgantown - returns a 10:59 average in the 3200
Watchlist: Assumption / West Springfield / Marietta / Brentwood / Mountain Brook / Howard / Cardinal Gibbons

Southwest:
1. Niwot - won nationals and returns 5 of their top 8
2. Araprahoe - placed 4th and returns 6 girls
Watchlist: Valor Christian, Mountain Vista, Desert Vista

Midwest:
1. York - got 4th at RunningLane and returns 5 of their top 6.
2. Columbus North - returns an 18:14 average
Watchlist: Naperville North / Noblesville

Northwest:
1. Jesuit - best returning team in OR
2. Summit - second best returning team in OR
Watchlist: Tahoma / Bishop Blanchet

New York:
1. Saratoga Springs - best team in the nation. What else can I say
2. FM - second at feds / returns 5 girls

Northeast - I honestly think some random teams will get top 2 from here. Not a very strong region. Wouldn’t be surprised if I get this one wrong.
1. Cherokee - won NXR / returns 5 of their top 6
2. Haddonfield Memorial - placed 3rd at regionals and returns 4 scorers
Watchlist: Colts Neck / Union Catholic / North Allegheny

Fun speculation, as always.

Boise girls deserve to be on the watchlist.

Your comment about American Fork boys is generally right, but a hypothetical meet of just the returning runners in Utah has them all the way down at 20th. That’s a lot of ground to make up.

While I don’t think AF will be in the top 2, I think they will be higher than projected.

They are a well-coached team. I think in 2023 they will be in the hunt for a national title since they will be a very young team this year.

Fun fact: Kamiakin High school has not been ranked in the top 5 in the northwest 3/4 years they qualified for NXN. Always underrated despite their numerous top 5 finishes because they don't run on fast courses.

Yeah, Kamiakin is losing their top 2, so that will be difficult to make up for. But they will be a young team this year, and 2023 will be promising for them.

Bentonville AR is another boys South team to include in the watchlist. They return 4 guys under 9:44 and another 4:24 guy.

Apparently American Fork only had 3 juniors on last year’s CC team. Smallest class I’ve ever seen at that school.

Kickapoo MO should also be in the watchlist for Midwest. They return a 15:45 5K avg.

American Fork has a transfer from Idaho coming in. He ran a 9:09 3200 last spring. Gonna be a junior next year. He finished 21st at the top RunningLane XC race. 2nd for sophomores. He, Bradshaw, and Ben Jaster will be an amazing trio. This gives AF an even better chance to win nationals in 2023. NXN better be back that year. AF got so many runner up finishes at NXN but they never got the title there.

9:05 not 9:09

And their 4-5 guys will be a 9:59 junior and a 16:14 senior. Should make for a solid top 5 in 2022.

And AF’s 4-5 guys will be a junior who ran a 9:59 last track season, and a senior who ran a 16:14 last cross season. So AF should have a solid top 5 in 2022.

There is so much depth in Utah right now that using athletic.net’s meet predictor with just returning runners, AF currently sits at around 20th in Utah. If the Idaho transfer is the No.1 runner in Utah, that still only moves AF up to 7th or so. And that’s before factoring in Colorado.

Of course they can get there, but they still need a lot of improvement in team depth. There are probably a lot of teams that could arguably contend for a national title if the no. 4 runner speeds up at least 40s and a new number five running at least high 15’s shows up. It’s just so rare to get 5 runners at that level.

American Fork’s returning group of 3200 runners sits at #7 in Utah. And that doesn’t include the Idaho transfer. With him included, it probably moves them up to #5. Probably won’t get top 2 next year though. But the year after that they should be at the league of their own in the SW region.

Boys
1. Leo Young - finished second at RunningLane. Lex had a faster 3200 time but Leo finished his season sooner
2. Lex Young - fastest 3200 in the nation. But finished behind Leo at nationals
3. Aaron Sahlman - 3rd nonsenior to finish at RunningLane
4. Chris Claudillo - fastest 3200 time by someone not named Lex or Leo Young
5. Connor Burns - 8:48 3200, and a 4:58 mile
6. Rocky Hansen - 8:51 3200, and 4 flat mile
7. Aidan Cox - best nonsenior at RunningLane not from Newbury Park
8. Devan Kipyego - really stepped up his game with his 4:05 mile!
9. Kole Mathiason - fastest nonsenior at Eastbay champs
10. Tyrone Gorze - second fastest nonsenior at Eastbay champs
Watchlist: Kevin Sanchez, Keegan Smith, Zach Munson, Jason Parra, Simeon Birnbaum, Milo Skapinsky, Gus Clevenger, Jacob Laney, Patrick Koon, Wes Shipsey, Grant Pierce, Ford Washburn, Jimmy Wischusen, Brayden Seymour, Jackson Heidesch, William Schneider, Hunter Jones, Tayson Echohawk, Rendon Kuykendall

Girls
1. Karrie Baloga - best nonsenior at Eastbay champs
2. Sadie Engelhardt - best 3200 time in the nation
3. Lily Cridge - best nonsenior at RunningLane
4. Irene Riggs - 9:54 in the 3200
5. Tatum David - 10:04 in the 3200
6. Hanne Thompson - 10:06 in the 3200
7. Kate Peters - #2 nonsenior at Eastbay Champs
8. Sophia Kennedy - #3 nonsenior at Eastbay Champs
9. Bethany Michalak - #2 nonsenior at RunningLane
10. Brooke Wilson - #3 nonsenior at RunningLane
Watchlist - Arianne Olson, Grace Schafer, Lauren Soobrian, Jane Hedengren, Grace Hutchinson, Zariel Macchia, Lauren Ping, Allie Zealand, Nicki Southerland, Samantha Humphries, Claire Stegall, Emily Lamontagne, Emma Stutzman, Keeghan Edwards, Sydney Sundgren, Reagan Riley

Springville girls team from UT should be on the watchlist for SW teams.

They placed 4th at NXR and return their 1-6.

It might be also good to put Fort Mill from SC to put on the watchlist from SE boys teams. They won state and loses one senior.

Add Marcus Reilly to the watchlist.

Add Payton Godsey to the watchlist.