35 Days until the Valencia Marathon: Here are 45 Profiles, nine every seven days

Will coop wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

13th might be Olika Adugna, still only 22yo. No results since winning Dubai early last year in an 11 man final kick in 2.06.15

I think he DNF in Berlin.

You are right, halfway in 62.15 in 10th, gone before 25k

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

13th might be Olika Adugna, still only 22yo. No results since winning Dubai early last year in an 11 man final kick in 2.06.15

14th could be the man who won the World Champs as a 19yo in 2015 and then the next year was 4th in London, 4th again at the Rio Olympics, and won New York. More about Ghirmay soon.

Finally ran his PB of 2.07.11 when tenth in Siena in April. Didn't finish a marathon before this since 2017 when 6th in London just 3 sec sub 2.10

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

12th here among a sea of talented debutants is Miriam Dattke. Won Dresden last year over the half in 69.43 and this last March won over 10k in Berlin in 31.38

Next may be Alice Wright. PB over the half from her third in San Diego in 2019 in 71.38. Also that year in Palo Alto was 12th over 10000m on the track in 31.56.52. That time was third that year among GB athletes behind Twell and Eilish. There were only 10 Ethiopians, 10 Kenyans, 7 Japanese, 5 Americans, and 2 Australians quicker that year over 25 laps. Sinead ran the quickest time ever for an O/40 among them. Alice ran 17044m in an hour to break the NR a month ago.

14th woman, another on debut, should be Etagegne Woldu. PB at the half in 69.22 when fifth in 2018 in Istanbul. Was 12th in Hengelo this last June over 5000 on the track.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Mule Wasihun should be fourth, PB of 2.03.16 when third in London in 2019. Fifth in London last year and second in Amsterdam in 2018 in 2.04.37.

Wasihun and Amos Kipruto are no longer on the list, but others have replaced them.

Was surprised to see these two still in the preview dated 2/12 from Athletics Illustrated, talking about the 3 marathons this weekend.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

12th here among a sea of talented debutants is Miriam Dattke. Won Dresden last year over the half in 69.43 and this last March won over 10k in Berlin in 31.38

Next may be Alice Wright. PB over the half from her third in San Diego in 2019 in 71.38. Also that year in Palo Alto was 12th over 10000m on the track in 31.56.52. That time was third that year among GB athletes behind Twell and Eilish. There were only 10 Ethiopians, 10 Kenyans, 7 Japanese, 5 Americans, and 2 Australians quicker that year over 25 laps. Sinead ran the quickest time ever for an O/40 among them. Alice ran 17044m in an hour to break the NR a month ago.

AW website reporting Alice has withdrawn.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Next may be Alice Wright. PB over the half from her third in San Diego in 2019 in 71.38. Also that year in Palo Alto was 12th over 10000m on the track in 31.56.52. That time was third that year among GB athletes behind Twell and Eilish. There were only 10 Ethiopians, 10 Kenyans, 7 Japanese, 5 Americans, and 2 Australians quicker that year over 25 laps. Sinead ran the quickest time ever for an O/40 among them. Alice ran 17044m in an hour to break the NR a month ago.

14th woman, another on debut, should be Etagegne Woldu. PB at the half in 69.22 when fifth in 2018 in Istanbul. Was 12th in Hengelo this last June over 5000 on the track.

With Alice out, Woldu goes to 13th and Nazret Weldu, Eritrean NR holder over this and one lap of the track, is next. That track record was from 2007 as a 17yo. The other NR was achieved this last May when 11th in Milan in 2.28.07. Was 43rd in Sapporo and may take another 90 sec off her best here? Best at the half was late last year in Delhi: seventh in 69.47

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

14th could be the man who won the World Champs as a 19yo in 2015 and then the next year was 4th in London, 4th again at the Rio Olympics, and won New York. More about Ghirmay soon.

Finally ran his PB of 2.07.11 when tenth in Siena in April. Didn't finish a marathon before this since 2017 when 6th in London just 3 sec sub 2.10

Next could be first home grown, Hamid Ben Daoud who has five finishes over this classic distance: every one quicker than the one before. PB now is 2.07.03 when 14th here last year, skimming 30 sec his 12th in Seville. Just 6 weeks ago, was 19th here over the half in 61.05

Another warming up 6 weeks ago over the half was Fionnuala McCormack, 37yo. Could be the 15th lady here after 9th that day in 69.32. More in a few hours.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Another warming up 6 weeks ago over the half was Fionnuala McCormack, 37yo. Could be the 15th lady here after 9th that day in 69.32. More in a few hours.

Ninth then in 69.32 and fifth in Chicago over this classic distance in 2.26.47. in 2012 over 25 laps of the track, was third in Palo Alto in 31.29.22 then later that year 15th at the Olympics

16th to finish could be Samuel Tsegay who competes a lot in Sweden. Was 9th in Siena in April in 2.06.53. Next best was his debut in 2011: 2.07.28 in Amsterdam. Won silver over the half at the 2014 World Champs.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Another warming up 6 weeks ago over the half was Fionnuala McCormack, 37yo. Could be the 15th lady here after 9th that day in 69.32. More in a few hours.

Ninth then in 69.32 and fifth in Chicago over this classic distance in 2.26.47. in 2012 over 25 laps of the track, was third in Palo Alto in 31.29.22 then later that year 15th at the Olympics

Holder of 3 NR's and a chance at a fourth today is Bojana Bjeljac. 13th here in 2.27.42. Was second in March over 10k in Berlin in 32.12

Aussiestatman wrote:

16th to finish could be Samuel Tsegay who competes a lot in Sweden. Was 9th in Siena in April in 2.06.53. Next best was his debut in 2011: 2.07.28 in Amsterdam. Won silver over the half at the 2014 World Champs.

Tenth at the Olympics and winner of the Euro Champs could be 17th here. Koen Naert's PB is from his 7th in Rotterdam in 2019 in 2.07.39. Has a 7th in Berlin and an eighth in NY.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Ninth then in 69.32 and fifth in Chicago over this classic distance in 2.26.47. in 2012 over 25 laps of the track, was third in Palo Alto in 31.29.22 then later that year 15th at the Olympics

Holder of 3 NR's and a chance at a fourth today is Bojana Bjeljac. 13th here in 2.27.42. Was second in March over 10k in Berlin in 32.12

With five hours until the start, I am leaving the females there and adding several more men's bios who could mix it with the lower half of the top ten here.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

16th to finish could be Samuel Tsegay who competes a lot in Sweden. Was 9th in Siena in April in 2.06.53. Next best was his debut in 2011: 2.07.28 in Amsterdam. Won silver over the half at the 2014 World Champs.

Tenth at the Olympics and winner of the Euro Champs could be 17th here. Koen Naert's PB is from his 7th in Rotterdam in 2019 in 2.07.39. Has a 7th in Berlin and an eighth in NY.

My 18th choice is Michael Kunyuga. His first sub 2.10 was his PB of 2.06.43 from Sevilla last year. Since then, he was 16th in Siena in April in 2.08.28

Next is Alex Kibet, both PB's for this and the half from 2018. 2.07.09 when third in Frankfurt and 59.06 when third at RAK.

Nicolas Navarro was 23rd here last year in 2.09.17 after 14th the year before just a sec outside 2.10. Twelfth at the Olympics

Goitom Kifle may be 21st here after 14th at the Olympics. PB of 2.08.07 when third in Enschede in April, taking just 2 sec off his 4th in Ljubljana in 2019

Last chance: possible 22nd here after the same finish at the Olympics. PB of 2.06.28 when 4th in Siena in April, carving 1.46 off his previous best from 2017: Yohanes Ghebregergis

Aussiestatman wrote:

Fourth lady may be Gutemi Shone in her 19th time of toeing the line here [stat from "Views from the Concourse"]. Second last year in Dubai in 2.20.11 and second In Prague this last May in 2.21.46.

As I have written elsewhere, the top 3 of Gebru, Jelegat, and Shone should handle the others. Organisers would be hoping for two of them sub 2.20. I would like to see at least one matching the time of Gebrekidan in Milan to rumble into my top ten rankings.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

The women’s field is not as quick as last year, before any additions. Azmera Gebru could win it with a repeat of her PB of 2.20.48 when third in Amsterdam in 2019. Sixth in Tokyo last year in 2.22.58. Ran 3000 in Monaco in 2012 as a 16yo when fifth in 8.40.01. Broke 15 for 5000 before that.

At 35yo, Nancy Jelagat would be a surprise for second. Hasn’t had a serious attempt at this classic distance: winning Treviso in 2019 in 2.36.22.

So excited. Can’t speak

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Next, still in front of Kamworor, could be Amos Kipruto. Third in the last World Champs and fourth here last year in 2.03.30, his PB.

So then, Geoffrey is third. With his best at the half being the former WR of 58.01, you would surmise that he could find another two minutes to take off his PB at this classic distance. Needs to find that here to keep a top ten ranking, in my book.

Can Kamworor pick them off one at a time?

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Next may be Alice Wright. PB over the half from her third in San Diego in 2019 in 71.38. Also that year in Palo Alto was 12th over 10000m on the track in 31.56.52. That time was third that year among GB athletes behind Twell and Eilish. There were only 10 Ethiopians, 10 Kenyans, 7 Japanese, 5 Americans, and 2 Australians quicker that year over 25 laps. Sinead ran the quickest time ever for an O/40 among them. Alice ran 17044m in an hour to break the NR a month ago.

14th woman, another on debut, should be Etagegne Woldu. PB at the half in 69.22 when fifth in 2018 in Istanbul. Was 12th in Hengelo this last June over 5000 on the track.

Woldu doing great, top 5 way under 2.20 pace at 25k

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Rahma Tusa might be 8th. PB when winning Rome in 2018 of 2.23.46. 2.25.09 this year in April in Siena when 7th. Was 5th In New York in 2018. Best at the half is from the previous year: 68.28 winning in France

Ninth here on debut should be Beyenu Degefa, 22yo. 4th over the half this last Sept in Copenhagen in 68.15. Was 8th in a DL 3000m in 2018.

Could get a sub 2.20 fastest debut here ahead of Dorcas