Boston 2022 Cutoff Prediction Thread

GettingFasterDude wrote:

Now that we know the field size, I predict a cutoff of 5:30-6:00. Normally with a normal 30,000 field size, the cutoff would be somewhere in the 1:00 to 5:00 range. But the qualification window is bigger than normal, so I predict a still tough cutoff of 5:30-6:00.

Hope you are wrong! Couple of factors you are missing:

- 2020 was the first year after adjusting the qualifying times down by 5 minutes

- That year the cutoff was 1:39 below

- The Vaccination requirement may have some impact --> the BAA says 93% of the field was vaccinated, but could this skew to higher numbers for charity runners who may be older than some qualifiers who are younger and don't think they need the vaccine

-Yes it's a long qualifying period, but there've been fewer marathons in 2020 and 2021 of course due to COVID. I understand 2020 Chicago and New York banked a lot of qualifiers

-Will there be some people who don't want to run the same race 6 months apart? Unclear, but not sure if everyone wants to do all that Boston entails twice in 6 months

Might be wishful thinking for me. I am a little over 3 minutes under the BQ and missed out on the 2021 race.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Hope you are wrong!

For the record, I hope I'm wrong, too. I think, if you are under the qualifying time, you should qualify. Period. I don't like this "You 'qualified' but can't run," bullcr@p. There should be no moving of the goalpost, after the fact.

But here we are. The BAA likes to be a tease.

How hard can it be? She got a bib. I'm sure she met the qualifying standard and earned the spot. Certainly didn't take it away from someone who ran 2:52:14 (7:46 under).

https://kevinbeck.substack.com/p/no-shoe-company-media-outlet-or-pro

pavement88 wrote:

Love to see it.

So how long until someone starts an anti-vaxx marathon??

I've already run two marathons after the vaccine came out. Unvaccinated. What difference does it make? So scary that life can exist without it.

19,437 would be a charity bib.

If you check her results she is "Last spotted" at 5K. :)

I believe less than 30k applied last year. Without a big increase, I'm leaning toward small cutoff.

Big cutoff will prompt a change in qualifying time (2019). 2021 was not a normal year with 20k reduced field.

My feeling is that BAA works toward small cutoff as they would not want so many qualifiers not being accepted.

I’m saying 3:10. The cut was 7:46 for 2021, but the field size is 50% larger for 2022. Plus, there was pent up demand for the race in 2021 since 2020 was cancelled and a lot of people who ran it in 2021 aren’t going to want to run it again only 6 months later.

educatedguesser wrote:

Plus, there was pent up demand for the race in 2021 since 2020 was cancelled and a lot of people who ran it in 2021 aren’t going to want to run it again only 6 months later.

Yeah I think that's kinda the hidden factor here. How many people double-dip? Is it really a given that there will be peak demand with the 2 races in 6 months thing, the vaccination requirement? What about supply as far as fewer 2020-1 marathons?

I'm really hoping to get in. I was a -4:02 qualifier for 2020 who, obviously, got shut out for 2021. But I'll be -9:02 this time around, because I'll be 45 on race day. So I ran my BQ at age 42, but get to use the age 45 cut-off. It feels like cheating, but those are the rules!

Reasons for a small vs. large cutoff

Small cutoff:

- Normal field size of 30K

- Boston this past Oct - will those runners who do one marathon a year really begin another training cycle for April?

- Vaccine requirement - small factor but 10%+ of runners opted for a covid test this fall vs. vaccine

- Chicago and Boston 2021 were not overly fast races

- Less total marathons in 2020 & 2021

Large cutoff:

- Longer than usual qualifying window

- Pent up demand from runners to race

I could be wrong but predicting a minimal to no cutoff...what am I missing?

I think the longer qualifying window is a wash with almost no races taking place in 2020.

The variable I'm wondering about is how many people have a BQ time from Fall 2019, but went for Chicago or NYC (or some other fall race) this year since 2021 was such an "untraditional" Boston Marathon. Probably didn't deter many first-timers, but I could see a lot of multiple time finishers holding out for a more normal Boston experience (Patriot's Day, bigger field, bigger events.)

But in general, I agree with amd222's reasoning and think the cutoff time will be around 2-3 minutes.

This is from the 2021 race. 9k qualified runners didn't get in. This year the field size is 10K larger than last year. Wouldn't it make sense that everyone who qualified would get in with the increased cap - especially with reduced qualifying races, timing with Boston happening in the fall and vax mandate (many runners on facebook saying they won't run).

"The B.A.A. was unable to accept 9,215 qualifiers due to field size limitations. The 125th Boston Marathon field size has been established as 20,000 entrants to ensure social distancing throughout the race route, especially at the start and finish. Among those accepted into the 125th Boston Marathon are athletes from 87 countries and all 50 U.S.states."

amd222 wrote:

This is from the 2021 race. 9k qualified runners didn't get in. This year the field size is 10K larger than last year. Wouldn't it make sense that everyone who qualified would get in with the increased cap - especially with reduced qualifying races, timing with Boston happening in the fall and vax mandate (many runners on facebook saying they won't run).

"The B.A.A. was unable to accept 9,215 qualifiers due to field size limitations. The 125th Boston Marathon field size has been established as 20,000 entrants to ensure social distancing throughout the race route, especially at the start and finish. Among those accepted into the 125th Boston Marathon are athletes from 87 countries and all 50 U.S.states."

I was wondering about this. It’s possible. I hope you’re right. I don’t like qualifiers not being able to run.

As previously stated, the 2022 race is accepting entrants with qualifying times all the way back to September 1, 2019. That's a large window.

There were likely quite a few qualifiers that simply decided to sit out 2021, with the logistics and everything still a bit more uncertain during the application process. The flip side of this is there are likely many who just ran Boston in September that aren't re-upping again in April.

It's really hard to say. I qualified in Chicago 2019 and didn't run in September, but I will in April (8+ min cushion). How many others are like me? How many graduated an age group and added an extra 5 minute buffer?

No insight, but I'd guess part of the reason the qualifying window is so large is they want to keep the "mystique and selectivity," meaning more than 30,000 applicants. My shot in the dark is you'll need to meet BQ -3min to actually get in. We'll see.

I am in the same position,-13 with a time from frankfurt 2 years ago.How many international runners does Boston normally get as there would have been minimal there this year but will go back up in 2022.

According to this site, there have been about 55K qualifiers for the 2022 qualifying period. Compared to 79K for 2021, 46K for 2020 and 50K for 2019. I believe this is just for US marathons, but it probably gives a good indication of the pool of runners.

2022: 55K qualifiers

2021: 79K qualifiers - Cut off - 7:47 - 20,000 runners

2020: 46K, 1:39, 31,500

2019: 50K, 4:52, 30,000 (qualifying was 5 mins slower)

I think the cut-off will be a little low. 1-3 minutes under.???? Demand is they key variable that can't really be measured.

https://findmymarathon.com/bostonmarathonqualifiers-2022.php

Thanks for sharing. I get some hope from it. 24K fewer qualifiers is significant. No idea the distribution of them vis a vis the QT.

Does the 55k qualifiers include the extended qualifying window?

Yes. I wonder if it includes double-counted names? I'm going to assume yes. This would distort the numbers for this a little bit with two New Yorks in there (2019+2021) and two Chicagos (2019+2021). I'm further encouraged.