Cole MF Hocker. 52.23 last lap. 3:35.35 FTW over Nuguse!!!

La sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Random question xyz wrote:

The distinction is his closing speed. I can’t find 2013 or 2015 world champs splits but those were both similar ish races IIRC. And if you compared the splits it would probably suggest they’d both be right there. If someone finds splits I’ll chart it

WC 2013:

Kiprop last 400m - 53.22 and Centrowitz - 53.57.

https://media.aws.iaaf.org/competitiondocuments/pdf/4873/AT-1500-M-f--1--.RS7.pdf?v=-1519651921

Awesome thank you! I could not find. I’ll chart it in a little bit and try to find an image hosting service to post the results here

Random question xyz wrote:

Awesome thank you! I could not find. I’ll chart it in a little bit and try to find an image hosting service to post the results here

Sadly it doesn't look like Chinese kept detailed splits.

All I could find was intermediate times:

1200m - Manangoi - 2:55.68.

Makes a 38.98 last 300m.

Random question xyz wrote:

runderun wrote:

You're right, this is absurd. He doesn't yet deserve to be in the same conversation as Ingebrigtsen. We're comparing a 3:35/13:18 guy with a 3:28/12:48 guy. It's dumb in the extreme. A reality check: Hocker is the 41st fastest person in the world this year, just a shade quicker than Mason Ferlic. Anyone who has watched the 1500 at the highest end for the last two years knows Tokyo will not be a tactical race, it's going to be all out from the gun, Cheruiyot always races this way and Jakob will follow him. A good kick isn't enough anymore

The distinction is his closing speed. I can’t find 2013 or 2015 world champs splits but those were both similar ish races IIRC. And if you compared the splits it would probably suggest they’d both be right there

I'm not disputing his closing speed. My argument is that his closing speed will be taking him from tenth to maybe sixth. It's pointless comparing to any champs pre-2019 because the context is completely different. First, you have the super spikes which have pushed up average times so 3:35 is basically the new 3:38. Second, a slow tactical race is just not going to happen. Cheruiyot does not race slow and tactical, he's a front runner who can churn out 3:30 on an off day. He wi grind out the final from the front, probably finishing in 3:28, and Jakob will go with him. Then there might be a dust-up for bronze with Hoare and Kerr willing to grind to a fast time, and Wightman (3:29 guy) capable of hanging with them and kicking. Until Hocker can show he can kick to a 3:31 then he's not in the picture.

On the positive side, he's got years ahead of him to develop that speed endurance to couple with his kick. He could be a contender in 2024 if he goes pro now

La sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Sadly it doesn't look like Chinese kept detailed splits.

Kiprops last 300m was 38.02. Translates roughly to a 51s 400m

Found it!

Not a fan of how Hocker cut off Nuguse in the home stretch. Reminded me of what Lagat did to Kipchoge in 2007. CHEAP MOVE. Stay in lane 2 my dude.

Both of these guys have really ragged form. Thank God for the shoes huh.

This isn't very scientific and I got lazy on trying to think of a better way to present it (plus we don't have 100m splits for NCAAs and I haven't gone back and watched video), but here's Hocker '21 NCAA vs. Centro '13 Moscow. Compared to Moscow b/c it was a pretty similar race as I recall. I didn't compare to Kiprop b/c of his bust. Again, not very scientific at all, and there can be a LOT of pace variation / inefficiencies between splits (even if we had 100m splits it wouldn't be perfect), but at a minimum this shows that Hocker and Nuguse can hang with a world class field in the right type of race (even if there's some benefit to the spikes). If anyone thinks I made any mistakes in the chart please let me know.

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500

Centro Moscow '13 Splits (LHS, sec) 13.79 28.88 44.55 60.56 75.68 90.93 105.80 120.65 135.16 149.38 163.21 176.91 190.45 203.87 216.78 3:36.78

Hocker NCAA '21 Splits (LHS, s) 44.09 106.50 163.13 215.35 3:35.35

Hocker Advantage (RHS, s) 0.46 -0.70 0.08 1.43

https://ibb.co/C1Pf1F3

La sopa de Sabadell wrote:

La sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Sadly it doesn't look like Chinese kept detailed splits.

Kiprops last 300m was 38.02. Translates roughly to a 51s 400m

Found it!

http://media.aws.iaaf.org/competitiondocuments/pdf/4875/AT-1500-M-f--1--.RS5.pdf

38.02 is no better than 54-low for straight conversion. Probably worth a longer kick of 52-53.

Random question xyz wrote:

here's Hocker '21 NCAA vs. Centro '13 Moscow.

Good job, nice diagramm.

At this point I think everyone is aware of Hockers kick and not many people will want to play this kind of game.

Possible tactics against Hocker would be if two "slow kick" (but higher PB guys) worked together on a high pace to drop him / box him in. Maybe Nuguse and Suliman.

Big Juicy Steak wrote:

38.02 is no better than 54-low for straight conversion. Probably worth a longer kick of 52-53.

Dude, 38.02 is 12.67 / 100m. That's 50.69 400m.

Kiprop ran his last 400m in 51.

here's a table with interval splits too, to make it a bit clearer

slowbro wrote:

Random question xyz wrote:

Should’ve stayed in his lane better but great race

^this

I’m admittedly a Nuguse fan, but I can’t argue if it’s a clean finish. Hocker cutting in on Nuguse for 70 meters seemed like a weak move to me. And with them finishing within 3 tenths of each other, who knows what a difference that might have made. Great race by both in any case!

Where did he cut in? Hocker ran right down the final straight in exactly the same spot in the lane until right before the finish when he had at least a stride advantage and any "cut in" would be legal.

The better question is what the heck was Nuguse looking at entering the stretch? Did he really need to look at the video to see that he was being challenged?

longjack wrote:

take away

hocker can make the olympic team

he and Nuguse can go 332 in the right race.

there are like 4-5 americans that can make the team.

hocker can get on the team, but he may not be able to keep his peak that long.

stupid hocker was close to DQ cutting in front in the last meters, and i hate the DQ.

the reality is at the OG, there will be 20 guys that can close like and better.

we're talking levels.

we're talking a 332 vs 328 levels.

so, no, hocker can't medal at OG

it would be a good learning experience however.

probably a blessing in disguise is to miss the team.

because youngsters having a long and fantastic season, 100% almost crash and burn, and it's over.

as coach, i'd shut him down with the first excuse.

I am pretty sure Centro won multiple world medals with like a 3:34 1500 PR. As Centro showed Kiprop, all-out time trial mean very little in a tactical race. I think Hocker can get a medal but he might need the race of his life to do it.

He definitely can. The splits are Olympic level. Just needs to be the right race (mid 3:30s go out in 1:45 for 700 close in 149 flat w 52 last lap.., basically what just happened)…. nobody can really do better off that pace

Random question xyz wrote:

Let it Rupp wrote:

I am pretty sure Centro won multiple world medals with like a 3:34 1500 PR. As Centro showed Kiprop, all-out time trial mean very little in a tactical race. I think Hocker can get a medal but he might need the race of his life to do it.

He definitely can. The splits are Olympic level. Just needs to be the right race (mid 3:30s go out in 1:45 for 700 close in 149 flat w 52 last lap.., basically what just happened)…. nobody can really do better off that pace

If you click into this you can see that hocker’s (and nuguse’s) run might be better than the most comparable world champs / Olympics race (that I could think of), with a bunch of the caveats above about being hard to compare; not picking on centro, just selected him bc that was best race to use and he got second to kiprop who isn’t a fair comparison

It's just funny that you two think the smart observation is that a promising college freshman is probably not faster than Jakob.

For the record, tactical races will always be the norm in Olympic finals. Also for the record, Cole Hocker's splits in the last two 400s were almost identical to Makhloufi's gold medal race in 2012.

The Dirty Duck wrote:

It's just funny that you two think the smart observation is that a promising college freshman is probably not faster than Jakob.

For the record, tactical races will always be the norm in Olympic finals. Also for the record, Cole Hocker's splits in the last two 400s were almost identical to Makhloufi's gold medal race in 2012.

Show me a race where Cheruiyot ran tactically. He runs the same in low-key meets and championship finals. The men's 1500m will not be tactical in Tokyo because Cheruiyot knows he can front run to a time that will destroy all of the field except Jakob, and he clearly believes he has Jakob's number. And when someone front runs, the field follows. Anyone hoping to sit and kick to a medal in 2021 is delusional.

I get that some people want to pile on a Hocker bandwagon but the fact is he's got less chance of a medal than Hoare, Wightman, and Kerr at this stage

I said the NORM will always be tactical championship races. Obviously there will be exceptions. (The exceptions rarely turn out well for the leader, which is why they are exceptions.)

La sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Big Juicy Steak wrote:

38.02 is no better than 54-low for straight conversion. Probably worth a longer kick of 52-53.

Dude, 38.02 is 12.67 / 100m. That's 50.69 400m.

Kiprop ran his last 400m in 51.

Dude, 51 is way more impressive than 38. You should have just gone with that.

runderun wrote:

I get that some people want to pile on a Hocker bandwagon but the fact is he's got less chance of a medal than Hoare, Wightman, and Kerr at this stage

I don't want to be rude, but these are insights that a child could have. No, a college freshman in his breakout season is not a favorite over most seasoned professionals with PRs 4-8 seconds faster.

What's interesting is that he (and Kessler) have exploded onto the scene with world class closing speed before the age of 20 - which means they have the TOOLS to win medals sometime soon.