Stop lying to yourselves about ATHING MU, she has WR potential

Noted both Kipyegon and Reekie are both 800/1500) runners, negative splits may be different for such strength-based runners. However, Mu is clearly speed-based with her 50.52 indoor. She should be able to run at least 1-2 secs faster off better pacing.

Exactly, Ajee hasn't run anything remotely close to a 50 secs 400m even as an adult and her 1500m PB is not insanely fast either, but even she (no disrespect to Ajee) managed to run 1:58 at 19 and went on to lower her PB by nearly 3 secs. I don't see why Mu can't run 2 secs faster than that in the future, unless she pulls a Mary Cain. She has wheels and her endurance is catching up at a really good pace.

gernu wrote:

think first wrote:

You wouldn't go nuts about an 18 year old american runner with 45 / 400m and 1:44 / 800?

Always fun to see fresh talent and speculate what they could do.

How is she comparable to either 45 or 1:44? She is not.

Actually you're right. Her 400m is worth a 44-high on men's side.

think first wrote:

I agree with everything except the last part.

She won't go sub-4 but also she doesn't have to. If she lowers her PB to 4:05 while keeping that 50s 400m speed, she will be able to get the 800 WR.

While she might have to run such a race all by herself, don't forget about that new Wavelight pacing technology.

jabouko wrote:

Right now, she has run 50.52i, 1:58.40i, with a 49.52r split indoors as well.

Outdoors, a 4:16 with 49.40/71.62/72.91/62.16 splits; according to statsgangsta's optimizer, thats an optimized time of 4:09.67.

Besides that, relay splits of 52.20 and 50.21.

Now, a negative split 1:57.73...

She can run 1:56 in a fast field, 49high open, 49 low on a relay, and probably 4:07 at max.

In the future I think she can eventually go sub-4 for 1500, by 2028 or so

Indeed, the wavelight is a game changer.

Anyone who sees Mu and doesn’t at least entertain the idea that she could could take down the w800 record is smoking crack. No, it isn’t a certainty. Yes, it is an insane record that has stood forever and was clearly drenched in PEDs. Yes, Mu has a shot at it if she can continue to develop her strength while maintaining and maybe even moderately increasing her 400 speed.

She is without question the best all around 400/800 prospect for her age in American and probably world history. Jesus people give her a shot! I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1:55.xx by the end of the year. What would you all say then?

So I looked it up on the IAAF scoring table, Athing Mu's male equivalent would look like this:

400m - 44.93

800m - 1:44.02

1500m - 3:42.02

So imagine an 18 year old american guy running these times and tell me you wouldn't entertain the idea of him getting the 800m WR in the next years.

think first wrote:

So I looked it up on the IAAF scoring table, Athing Mu's male equivalent would look like this:

400m - 44.93

800m - 1:44.02

1500m - 3:42.02

So imagine an 18 year old american guy running these times and tell me you wouldn't entertain the idea of him getting the 800m WR in the next years.

You must be a bit slow. The scoring tables are IRRELEVANT. Wow I had no idea some of you thought with such primitive tendencies. Throw the tables out the window and please learn to think. Her performances are NOT equivalent to 44 and 1:44.

Hmmmm... IAAF scoring tables vs. some guy named Gernu’s qualitative opinion in an anonymous internet message board. Tough call on which to go with...

gernu's flowery way of insulting people caan be used in place of evidence

I don't think wavelight and shoes matter so much in the 800m. (They were probably the game changers behind Cheptegei's und Gidey's 2020 WRs, though.)

I also agree that Mu will probably run as fast as Wilson did within a few years (sub 1:56) and it would rate higher because she would have to do it without being dragged by Semenya running even faster. But 1:53.28 is quite some distance from 1:55.5. Of the 27 runners below 1:56, Wilson is the least suspicious (and recall that tainted beef), and of these 26 only three (incl. Semenya) got within a full second of the WR.

It's great that the women's 800m that appeared pretty lame in the first post-Semenya season got better again last year and will continue to do so, but people should not underestimate how rare sub 1:57 are, especially if one excludes Eastern bloc 1970s/80s and a few Monaco races "paced" by Semenya a few years ago. So Mu could clearly dominate the next 5 years with several ~1:55 marks but still be a safe distance from the WR. It also remains to be seen how well she fares running rounds and more tactical races.

I knew you would write that! It's you who's slow, if you think that your subjective opinion matters more than the official IAAF scoring table. Just shows to me, that you have no clue about women performances and I also slightly suspect some levels of sexism and / or racism. To be honest, I made a mistake. Since Mu's 400m 50.52 was run indoors, her male equivalent outdoors would be 44.46 and not 44.93. She's like Saruni, but faster and younger. There is litterally no woman in the world right now to beat Mu in 800m and she's only 18. Enjoy this and cheer for her instead of trying to lessen her performances. It's not a good look for you.

gernu wrote:

think first wrote:

So I looked it up on the IAAF scoring table, Athing Mu's male equivalent would look like this:

400m - 44.93

800m - 1:44.02

1500m - 3:42.02

So imagine an 18 year old american guy running these times and tell me you wouldn't entertain the idea of him getting the 800m WR in the next years.

You must be a bit slow. The scoring tables are IRRELEVANT. Wow I had no idea some of you thought with such primitive tendencies. Throw the tables out the window and please learn to think. Her performances are NOT equivalent to 44 and 1:44.

Racism? You are barking up the wrong tree and appear to be uneducable. You do not think critically. Please think for one minute. Mu is almost 3 seconds off the world record at 400m. How is that going to be worth a male 44 400m? I mean really try to think for once.

You do realize that the iaaf scoring table were not made to compare events between gender it explicitly states this on the website. You can compare male to male or female to female, but the tables do not accurately compare male to female.

think first wrote:

So I looked it up on the IAAF scoring table, Athing Mu's male equivalent would look like this:

400m - 44.93

800m - 1:44.02

1500m - 3:42.02

So imagine an 18 year old american guy running these times and tell me you wouldn't entertain the idea of him getting the 800m WR in the next years.

That's better than Brazier did if I remember correctly. College freshman, ran 1:44, probably could've run close to 3:42 or 44.93, but I doubt both of them. Now he's broken the American record and there have constantly been talks of him breaking the WR.

The IAAF scoring tables probably don't even compare indoor to outdoor accurately, it would be hard to since athletes are not in peak shape during indoor so you can't see their true potential.

gernu wrote:

Racism? You are barking up the wrong tree and appear to be uneducable. You do not think critically. Please think for one minute. Mu is almost 3 seconds off the world record at 400m. How is that going to be worth a male 44 400m? I mean really try to think for once.

Gotta be something, since you seem to have a problem with Mu.

50.52 indoors is worth 49.70 outdoors. Therefore 49.70 relates to 47.60 like 44.63 relates 43.03.

If you disagree with IAAF scoring tables, take it to IAAF and complain. Maybe they will hire you and will make corrections based on your opinion.

I look at the video of her jogging 58/59 laps solo and I see that WR incoming. Too bad there's no more Semenya to drag her to it. Hopefully that Wavelight will help somewhat.

think first wrote:

So I looked it up on the IAAF scoring table, Athing Mu's male equivalent would look like this:

400m - 44.93

800m - 1:44.02

1500m - 3:42.02

So imagine an 18 year old american guy running these times and tell me you wouldn't entertain the idea of him getting the 800m WR in the next years.

1.44.02 to 1.40.91? No chance. And that's a smaller differential than between Mu's time and the women's world record. Mu is African-American so she is likely to be more mature physically than a Caucasian - by about 2 years. Amos ran 1.41xx at 18 - and got no faster. Improvement is not a given.

I don't think its appreciated here how tough these records are, and even getting within a second of them is a huge ask, let alone beating them. I think she may have a 1.55 in her at her best. It would probably be a clean world's best. If she's clean.

gernu wrote:

Racism? You are barking up the wrong tree and appear to be uneducable. You do not think critically. Please think for one minute. Mu is almost 3 seconds off the world record at 400m. How is that going to be worth a male 44 400m? I mean really try to think for once.

I have to agree. I can't see how 50.5 next to a women's world mark of 47.6 can be likened to a men's 44.6 next to a world mark only a second and a half faster.

Armstronglivs wrote:

1.44.02 to 1.40.91? No chance. And that's a smaller differential than between Mu's time and the women's world record. Mu is African-American so she is likely to be more mature physically than a Caucasian - by about 2 years. Amos ran 1.41xx at 18 - and got no faster. Improvement is not a given.

I don't think its appreciated here how tough these records are, and even getting within a second of them is a huge ask, let alone beating them. I think she may have a 1.55 in her at her best. It would probably be a clean world's best. If she's clean.

It would be 1:44.02 solo at the beginning of the season while jogging.

Amos could have gotten faster, but his priorities were DJing and alcohol.

Mu has crazy speed and lots of untapped potential. I guess we will see.

Speed is not the crucial factor for the 800 - endurance is. There are very few Juantorena's - in fact there is only one. The fastest 800 runners in the men's event have never been the fastest over the 400, with the exception of the Cuban. Jarmila is his equivalent in the women's event.

What is characteristic of the 800 is that there is typically a bigger differential between the 400 and 800 times for the speed-based runners, demonstrating that strength and endurance are ultimately more important than sheer speed. Look at Cram - he wouldn't have been faster than 48s over 400 and yet could run 1.42xx over the 800. A lot of guys could run sub-44 in his era; none would have beaten him over 2 laps. Mu's speed is not what will bring her closer to Jarmila's time - it will have to be increased endurance. That isn't guaranteed. If it was, there would be countless 400m exponents who would be succeeding at the longer event.