Stop lying to yourselves about ATHING MU, she has WR potential

juiced athing = 1:49

"lying"

flvmmox wrote:

juiced athing = 1:49

<1:50 = <4:00 mile??

What's the clean record? Who is the first non doper, non Caster on the all time list?

At the time I would say Mary Decker Slaney in her first 10-12 years as DEFINITELY clean without any accusations. Athing My is more talented as Slaney and just as good of range from 400m to 5000m. Yes Athing will eventually prove she can even move up to 1500m/5000m.

Sorry, no one clean beats Jarmila's record. Dopers haven't - and they've been trying for nearly 40 years.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Sorry, no one clean beats Jarmila's record. Dopers haven't - and they've been trying for nearly 40 years.

+1

One thing we should consider is that Jarmila ran the WR with a negative split and all by herself. Clearly 1:52 low or even 1:51 high was possible with better pacing and drafting, so while the WR is by no means soft (hell, it stands for 40 years after all!), it isn't as impossible as the 100m and 400m as some people make it out to be. If there is anyone who can break it, it gotta be Mu.

That was so hard to read! You do have the choice of proofreading before you press submit, you know. Jeez!

Right now, she has run 50.52i, 1:58.40i, with a 49.52r split indoors as well.

Outdoors, a 4:16 with 49.40/71.62/72.91/62.16 splits; according to statsgangsta's optimizer, thats an optimized time of 4:09.67.

Besides that, relay splits of 52.20 and 50.21.

Now, a negative split 1:57.73...

She can run 1:56 in a fast field, 49high open, 49 low on a relay, and probably 4:07 at max.

In the future I think she can eventually go sub-4 for 1500, by 2028 or so

I agree with everything except the last part. She won't go sub-4 but also she doesn't have to. If she lowers her PB to 4:05 while keeping that 50s 400m speed, she will be able to get the 800 WR. While she might have to run such a race all by herself, don't forget about that new Wavelight pacing technology.

jabouko wrote:

Right now, she has run 50.52i, 1:58.40i, with a 49.52r split indoors as well.

Outdoors, a 4:16 with 49.40/71.62/72.91/62.16 splits; according to statsgangsta's optimizer, thats an optimized time of 4:09.67.

Besides that, relay splits of 52.20 and 50.21.

Now, a negative split 1:57.73...

She can run 1:56 in a fast field, 49high open, 49 low on a relay, and probably 4:07 at max.

In the future I think she can eventually go sub-4 for 1500, by 2028 or so

Proofreading is not going to help the OP very much. Believe it or not that is not really the issue.

As far as Athing Mu is concerned, VIPAM has a history of making outrageous predictions, one of which has come true. But then he ran with it and has become an embarrassment. Athing will never break 1:54. People forget how difficult that world record is.

If you look at Athing it is possible she could eventually run as fast as Ana Quirot. Ana ran 1:54.44. Ana also ran 49.61 and 4:13, the latter maybe when she was past her prime. I believe Athing can run 50.1 and 4:07 one day but not quite enough to break 1:54.

Sorry but what is the point of going nuts over someone just short of 2 seconds shy of the 400m WR, and 4 seconds shy of the 800m WR?

Yes, it's not usual for someone so young. But hardly unheard of. Ask Jim Ryun. Hell, ask Mohammed Aman.

That 4 seconds improvement is an eternity. SO many 1:57's. So FEW 1:53's.

Yes and no. Mu is someone who has managed a 1:57 off a 50s 400m and 1500m 4:16. Mathematically speaking for Mu to reach the WR she has to run 1500m in 4:05 while keeping the 50s 400m ability. Ana Quirot PBs are spread out too far in the timeline to say that she was capable of such speed and strength at the same time. Now Athing Mu has run all her PBs within 1-2 seasons, which is a talent of another level.

gernu wrote:

If you look at Athing it is possible she could eventually run as fast as Ana Quirot. Ana ran 1:54.44. Ana also ran 49.61 and 4:13, the latter maybe when she was past her prime. I believe Athing can run 50.1 and 4:07 one day but not quite enough to break 1:54.

You wouldn't go nuts about an 18 year old american runner with 45 / 400m and 1:44 / 800? Always fun to see fresh talent and speculate what they could do.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Sorry but what is the point of going nuts over someone just short of 2 seconds shy of the 400m WR, and 4 seconds shy of the 800m WR?

Yes, it's not usual for someone so young. But hardly unheard of. Ask Jim Ryun. Hell, ask Mohammed Aman.

That 4 seconds improvement is an eternity. SO many 1:57's. So FEW 1:53's.

think first wrote:

You wouldn't go nuts about an 18 year old american runner with 45 / 400m and 1:44 / 800?

Always fun to see fresh talent and speculate what they could do.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Sorry but what is the point of going nuts over someone just short of 2 seconds shy of the 400m WR, and 4 seconds shy of the 800m WR?

Yes, it's not usual for someone so young. But hardly unheard of. Ask Jim Ryun. Hell, ask Mohammed Aman.

That 4 seconds improvement is an eternity. SO many 1:57's. So FEW 1:53's.

How is she comparable to either 45 or 1:44? She is not.

George213 wrote:

One thing we should consider is that Jarmila ran the WR with a negative split and all by herself. Clearly 1:52 low or even 1:51 high was possible with better pacing and drafting, so while the WR is by no means soft (hell, it stands for 40 years after all!), it isn't as impossible as the 100m and 400m as some people make it out to be. If there is anyone who can break it, it gotta be Mu.

It is irrelevant how much faster Jarmila may or may not have run. No one - doped or clean - has bested her actual time. 4 seconds faster for Mu over that distance is huge.

Mu might eventually run the fastest time that is probably clean (i.e. not Kratochvilova) or by an xy-woman. While it is true that Mu looked like jogging for the first 59-60 lap and the split is very impressive (far more to me than 4:16 1500m), I think one should not get carried away by the age or the split. Last year Kipyegon, also Reekie ran 1:57-58 with similar negative splits and Kratochvilova and Semenya also ran extremely fast with negative or even splits. So maybe the positive split is overrated for the slower times of women? And while we can expect Mu to improve for a few years, it is also not unheard of that 800m runners are quite close to their best at 19. Ajee Wilson also ran 1:58 at 19 already, several east German women ran very fast under or around 20 etc.

I also think that Semenya seriously tried to break the WR in 2018-19 when she could expect the eventual ban. And failed. Sure, she might have been a bit stronger in earlier years and "sandbagging" but not always. It is an extraordinary mark.

That Mu looks "like jogging" is also because she is extremely tall and long-legged. Koko also looks slowish even in ~60 sec. laps because of the long stride and Mu is 2-3 inches taller!