Will Nick Willis get selected for the NZ Olympics 2021 team?

I think he still has enough to qualify.

He has a great chance to make another Olympic final which would be a superb achievement. Winning another medal would put him among the all-time greats in my opinion. It's not impossible now that so many of the cheats have been busted. Hopefully Big Mac will have to at least pull back the throttle on his doping now he knows he is being scrutinized.

Lot of talent coming through in the 1500m, but hopefully he'll at least be able to believe this time that most of those ahead of him are clean. Just a shame he had to compete in such a dirty era in his prime.

Isn't he a 3:35 guy now? Might make the final but he's lost a couple steps

Are there 3 other guys in New Zealand that will even have the Olympic standard? If not (pretty sure there aren’t), then Willis will be on the team. He’ll get the standard. I also wouldn’t bet against him making the final, but he will have no chance of medaling.

Barry Badrinath wrote:

Are there 3 other guys in New Zealand that will even have the Olympic standard? If not (pretty sure there aren’t), then Willis will be on the team. He’ll get the standard. I also wouldn’t bet against him making the final, but he will have no chance of medaling.

That's not how any of it works. They will nominate their team in April and their nominees do not need "the standard" (a misunderstood concept in itself).

He is qualified on the descending order list. Top 45 in the 1500m.

https://www.worldathletics.org/stats-zone/road-to/7132391?eventId=10229502

The standard in needed in order to be selected for the NZ team, together with a ”realistic expectation of a top 16 finish”. The standard on its own is not sufficient for selection. There have been athletes who have not been selected in the past, despite having the standard, because they showed a history of not performing at major events. Willis is a proven performer, he will be selected if he has the standard.

Lol, the Olympics won’t let them in if they don’t have the standard and enough other runners hit the qualifying standard. All runners who hit the qualifying standard get in (up to 3 per country) plus descending order down the world rankings until a cap of 45 is reached. From 2016, it looks like only 30 runners hit the qualifying standard, and that included more than 3 from both Kenya and USA, so the world rankings will likely come into play.

Right now, Samuel Tanner is the only New Zealand runner that has the qualifying standard. It looks like there are only 21 runners total that have the standard, but that will change. Willis will need to hit it if he wants to guarantee a spot, although he is still very likely to get in based on his world ranking, which sits at a very healthy 31 with 6 Americans, 5 Kenyans, and 4 British athletes in front of him (so really, he’s 25th).

Willis in a sense was lucky the Olympics were postponed because he couldn't make the standard last year. However, now he is a year older and still doesn't have the standard. I would be very surprised if New Zealand selected him.

Les wrote:

Willis in a sense was lucky the Olympics were postponed because he couldn't make the standard last year. However, now he is a year older and still doesn't have the standard. I would be very surprised if New Zealand selected him.

It literally doesn’t matter if New Zealand would select him or not. Unless 3 other New Zealand runners have the Olympic standard, Willis is going based on his IAAF ranking. The only way it is up to Athletics New Zealand’s discretion is if Willis is 1 of 4 New Zealand runners with the standard, and that’s just not going to happen.

Barry Badrinath wrote:

Les wrote:

Willis in a sense was lucky the Olympics were postponed because he couldn't make the standard last year. However, now he is a year older and still doesn't have the standard. I would be very surprised if New Zealand selected him.

It literally doesn’t matter if New Zealand would select him or not. Unless 3 other New Zealand runners have the Olympic standard, Willis is going based on his IAAF ranking. The only way it is up to Athletics New Zealand’s discretion is if Willis is 1 of 4 New Zealand runners with the standard, and that’s just not going to happen.

This is wrong. NZ athletics doesn't have to send anyone - there's not an obligation to fill the team. NZ has a lot of discretion built into their selection process

Freycinet wrote:

Barry Badrinath wrote:

It literally doesn’t matter if New Zealand would select him or not. Unless 3 other New Zealand runners have the Olympic standard, Willis is going based on his IAAF ranking. The only way it is up to Athletics New Zealand’s discretion is if Willis is 1 of 4 New Zealand runners with the standard, and that’s just not going to happen.

This is wrong. NZ athletics doesn't have to send anyone - there's not an obligation to fill the team. NZ has a lot of discretion built into their selection process

I disagree. Most likely Nick will get in based on his world rankings. And unless there are 3 other runners with the standard or better world rankings than Nick. Athletics New Zealand will select him. He should hit the standard before the deadline if not how world rankings should get him in. He is no idiot that is why he is racing so much most likely. Try for the standard/ improve world rankings

Is this a 2012 thread? I mean Nick Willis to beat Cheryit, Ingebrigtsen, Engels(if he does 1500), Cilantro, Kerr, and the great brits? I think not, but have tremendous respect for the bloke.

Coevett wrote:

I think he still has enough to qualify.

He has a great chance to make another Olympic final which would be a superb achievement. Winning another medal would put him among the all-time greats in my opinion. It's not impossible now that so many of the cheats have been busted. Hopefully Big Mac will have to at least pull back the throttle on his doping now he knows he is being scrutinized.

Lot of talent coming through in the 1500m, but hopefully he'll at least be able to believe this time that most of those ahead of him are clean. Just a shame he had to compete in such a dirty era in his prime.

I think he's already an all-time great. He should have a gold medal from 2008 and a silver from 2016. He's run 3:29 for 1500 and has the longest sub-4 streak of any runner of all time. Nick Willis likely is the overall GOAT of the 1500/mile. If he's selected for Tokyo, he'll extend his "oldest man in the olympic final" record by another 5 years. Absolutely incredible.

michiganrunner55 wrote:

Freycinet wrote:

This is wrong. NZ athletics doesn't have to send anyone - there's not an obligation to fill the team. NZ has a lot of discretion built into their selection process

I disagree. Most likely Nick will get in based on his world rankings. And unless there are 3 other runners with the standard or better world rankings than Nick. Athletics New Zealand will select him. He should hit the standard before the deadline if not how world rankings should get him in. He is no idiot that is why he is racing so much most likely. Try for the standard/ improve world rankings

You can't disagree with fact - what I said was that getting the standard doesn't mean he is guaranteed to go. Will NZ pick him if he does? Very likely. But it "literally does matter" if NZ wants to pick him or not

Freycinet wrote:

Barry Badrinath wrote:

It literally doesn’t matter if New Zealand would select him or not. Unless 3 other New Zealand runners have the Olympic standard, Willis is going based on his IAAF ranking. The only way it is up to Athletics New Zealand’s discretion is if Willis is 1 of 4 New Zealand runners with the standard, and that’s just not going to happen.

This is wrong. NZ athletics doesn't have to send anyone - there's not an obligation to fill the team. NZ has a lot of discretion built into their selection process

This is correct.

ya nz can select anyone with the standard, or not.

basically, if willis gets the standard and they don't pick him, they risk getting fired.

so that is that.

Road to Tokyo wrote:

He is qualified on the descending order list. Top 45 in the 1500m.

https://www.worldathletics.org/stats-zone/road-to/7132391?eventId=10229502

Where he is on the descending list today isn't important in the least. Where will he be on the list 4 or 5 months from now? Plenty of heavy hitters aren't currently in the slot they'll end up in. Not everybody races in the off-season.

Freycinet wrote:

Barry Badrinath wrote:

It literally doesn’t matter if New Zealand would select him or not. Unless 3 other New Zealand runners have the Olympic standard, Willis is going based on his IAAF ranking. The only way it is up to Athletics New Zealand’s discretion is if Willis is 1 of 4 New Zealand runners with the standard, and that’s just not going to happen.

This is wrong. NZ athletics doesn't have to send anyone - there's not an obligation to fill the team. NZ has a lot of discretion built into their selection process

Well yes, their options would be to send Willis or to send no one at all. The other runners will have to have the Olympic standard or an appropriate place in the world rankings. They won’t have 3 other runners that meet this criteria. They’re going to send Willis.

Barry Badrinath wrote:

Freycinet wrote:

This is wrong. NZ athletics doesn't have to send anyone - there's not an obligation to fill the team. NZ has a lot of discretion built into their selection process

Well yes, their options would be to send Willis or to send no one at all. The other runners will have to have the Olympic standard or an appropriate place in the world rankings. They won’t have 3 other runners that meet this criteria. They’re going to send Willis.

Often NZ athletics do choose not to send anyone at all even when athletes have the standard. Their criteria is usually top 8 potential, and with future medal potential.

Again, with the standard, they probably will send Nick. But it's not a guarentee yet