Scotland (and England) go into full national lockdown again. Will US be next?

It feels bad. I am still waiting for analyses of B.1.1.7 to be published but if it's actually 60%-70% more transmissible then there really isn't much we can do. That would mean we need an R_t of ~0.6 NOW to keep R below 1 should the new strain take over in the USA. We have NEVER had an R_t that low.

Early data suggests the new strain doesn't cause more severe disease, which is good, but if it is truly that much more transmissible we are in big trouble.

Like, frantically vaccinate anyone you can get your hands on trouble.

Budda wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

What is that supposed to mean?

I mean that the situation in Arizona is very different from Vermont and Hawaii.

Obvisouly it's not all the same in the UK, but in general the spread is more "uniform".

Except it's not. Just as much variety between the Scottish Highlands and more dense counties as there is among US states.

Harambe wrote:

It feels bad. I am still waiting for analyses of B.1.1.7 to be published but if it's actually 60%-70% more transmissible then there really isn't much we can do. That would mean we need an R_t of ~0.6 NOW to keep R below 1 should the new strain take over in the USA. We have NEVER had an R_t that low.

Early data suggests the new strain doesn't cause more severe disease, which is good, but if it is truly that much more transmissible we are in big trouble.

Like, frantically vaccinate anyone you can get your hands on trouble.

Different countries in Europe are considering postponing 2nd vaccine shot for this very reason.

(UK already decided to)

Latest estimate on this new strain is 56% (obviously a range below and above), but yeah it's definately a game changer and is probably a reason why many european countries are experiencing a 3rd wave despite already having strict measures in place.

Hardloper wrote:

Budda wrote:

I mean that the situation in Arizona is very different from Vermont and Hawaii.

Obvisouly it's not all the same in the UK, but in general the spread is more "uniform".

Except it's not. Just as much variety between the Scottish Highlands and more dense counties as there is among US states.

https://www.covidlive.co.uk/

I said "in general"...

rojo wrote:

Seems like the new variant is spreading way faster than the authorities can get the vaccines out.

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1346095880454209539

No! We are Alpha. Not Beta.

Yup -- it seems like it will pretty easily outstrip the most stringent control measures the USA has introduced.

There is no chance we get a fully enforced lockdown or anything like that here.

It sure feels like it's going to come down to a race between vaccination and the virus from late Feb-March-April. Prize is avoiding a few 100k deaths.

Harambe wrote:

Budda wrote:

Different countries in Europe are considering postponing 2nd vaccine shot for this very reason.

(UK already decided to)

Latest estimate on this new strain is 56% (obviously a range below and above), but yeah it's definately a game changer and is probably a reason why many european countries are experiencing a 3rd wave despite already having strict measures in place.

Yup -- it seems like it will pretty easily outstrip the most stringent control measures the USA has introduced.

There is no chance we get a fully enforced lockdown or anything like that here.

It sure feels like it's going to come down to a race between vaccination and the virus from late Feb-March-April. Prize is avoiding a few 100k deaths.

This guy (ape) is king of moving the goal posts in LRC. Cheers

Scotland’s population is about 5.5 million. The US has at least 13 metropolitan cities each with a higher population. The US has 25 states with a higher population than Scotland.

The highest population of any metropolitan city in Scotland is 634,000.

Scale is an important thing to understand.

Considering the restrictions in California and how they don’t seem to have control whatsoever I would suggest that scientists and politicians have no idea how to control this tiny little virus. Not saying that I know what to do, but I have a different essential job to perform. I was not trained in politics nor infectious disease control. ? ?

Math. Why can you not use it wrote:

Scotland’s population is about 5.5 million. The US has at least 13 metropolitan cities each with a higher population. The US has 25 states with a higher population than Scotland.

The highest population of any metropolitan city in Scotland is 634,000.

Scale is an important thing to understand.

Non-sequitor. Scotland's lockdown measures applying to the entire mainland are a lot stricter than any US state or metro area, large or small, Republican or Democrat has implemented. It has nothing to do with scale, it's the level of restrictions people will tolerate.

lebron here wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Yup -- it seems like it will pretty easily outstrip the most stringent control measures the USA has introduced.

There is no chance we get a fully enforced lockdown or anything like that here.

It sure feels like it's going to come down to a race between vaccination and the virus from late Feb-March-April. Prize is avoiding a few 100k deaths.

This guy (ape) is king of moving the goal posts in LRC. Cheers

What goal posts are being moved here?

I mean a few as in 200k deaths or more in difference between scenarios before and after this new strain might be a bit pessimistic for all I know, Main reason is that I expect a very high proportion of the vulnerable could be vaccinated within a few weeks if you really set your mind to it, but if vaccination rollout continue to underwhelm it will most definately make a huge difference.

Israel shows what is possible if it's actually made a priority.. (More than 10% already vaccinated in what, a little over 3 weeks?)

That would be pretty much all very high risk people if prioritized properly.

PBS just reported that only 400,000 elderly/high risk people have been vaccinated in the USA despite many millions of doses being allocated for them.

New York is now passing a law saying that hospitals must use vaccine within 10 days of receiving it or be fined. Apparently they are sitting on it.

Oho is pressing it to be used within a day.

Too much vaccine is sitting in freezers while officials dither.

Hardloper wrote:

Math. Why can you not use it wrote:

Scotland’s population is about 5.5 million. The US has at least 13 metropolitan cities each with a higher population. The US has 25 states with a higher population than Scotland.

The highest population of any metropolitan city in Scotland is 634,000.

Scale is an important thing to understand.

Non-sequitor. Scotland's lockdown measures applying to the entire mainland are a lot stricter than any US state or metro area, large or small, Republican or Democrat has implemented. It has nothing to do with scale, it's the level of restrictions people will tolerate.

It's obviously a policy choice.

Policy derives from the fact that they more than likely have significant spread of this new strain being in same country as England.

Without those two factors there is not really a need to go full lockdown in Scotland.

In England too the spread is mostly at levels from Oregon to New Jersey (bottom half of US states), but given this new strain they are basically taking no chances.

I am expecting Wales to follow suit soon even if without this new strain there wouldn't be neccecary in North Wales at least.

If you think Scotland are being cautious, look to Norway.

Shutting down tomorrow almost as hard with just 6-700 daily infections.

Wow, a lot to unfold here. Many, many elderly in my neck of the woods are refusing to get the vaccine. I am in health care and got the first jab. Ready for #2 next Monday. Their body, their choice. We wouldn't want to enforce anyone to do something with their body that they believe is unethical.

Wow..

If true that is somewhat shocking...

So in absolute numbers much worse than a contry with 1/35 the population and having approved the vaccine at roughly the same time.

France had just vaccinated 350 people a couple a days ago.

The vaccine was approved for them at the same time as Denmark, and Denmark had vaccinated 40000 at the same time.

Population being something like 1/12th of France.

So the USA isn't the only country struggling to get organized, but yeah, still shocking.

No comfort for the people dying because of it of course...

lebron here wrote:

Wow, a lot to unfold here. Many, many elderly in my neck of the woods are refusing to get the vaccine. I am in health care and got the first jab. Ready for #2 next Monday. Their body, their choice. We wouldn't want to enforce anyone to do something with their body that they believe is unethical.

So what is happening to the unused doses that were destined for nursing homes and the like? Are they sitting in storage, being re-allocated, what? Seems like this could be a huge bottleneck. Facility orders doses to cover 100% of patients but only uses 40%, the other 60% have a shelf life, particularly the Pfizer ones.

lebron here wrote:

Wow, a lot to unfold here. Many, many elderly in my neck of the woods are refusing to get the vaccine. I am in health care and got the first jab. Ready for #2 next Monday. Their body, their choice. We wouldn't want to enforce anyone to do something with their body that they believe is unethical.

It's their choice but the alternative is going to be far, far worse given how quickly this new strain has punched through all but the most strict control measures in the UK.

I hope everyone is wrong but +60% transmissibility could be devastating given the slow vaccine rollout in the USA.

The green checkmark for the runner is an encouraging sign.

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/01/04/18/37591036-9111965-image-a-4_1609785181599.jpg

Harambe wrote:

lebron here wrote:

l.

I hope everyone is wrong but +60% transmissibility could be devastating given the slow vaccine rollout in the USA.

Agree. We could rapidly reach a point where its every man for himself. The smart and/or well off will at some point, go into survival mode and hunker down. The dumb and poor and those who depend on the dumb and poor will be fed to the lions.

Sad.

In the spring, the fear of the unknown compelled people to stay home more than the govt orders. Now, people are over confident and no govt is enforcing anything (how can they really?) and the poor and dumb will pay...

What would Will say?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNsK5BKVbw0