Scotland (and England) go into full national lockdown again. Will US be next?

rojo wrote:

Seems like the new variant is spreading way faster than the authorities can get the vaccines out.

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1346095880454209539

I believe it’s been demonstrated over the last nine months it’s very difficult for the state governments, let alone the federal government, to institute a lockdown long term in the US.

The feds will have a very hard time locking down places like North Dakota, Florida, Texas, Alaska, etc.

Thanks for helping to speed up the spread. The rest of the world is laughing at you.

Nope, US isn't next. We feel invincible and certain governors and their attorney generals would file suit against the federal government to block any such order.

It's hard to see the trend with the holiday interruption, but it's not clear that U.S. cases are rising so I can't imagine any great shift in national policy.

Regional, statewide, or hot spot specific guidelines probably make more sense in a country as large as the U.S. anyway.

Is there anything stoping NY, Massachusetts, California, or Washington from implementing a real Euro-style lockdown and showing us how it's done?

CarbonFiberJoe wrote:

Is there anything stoping NY, Massachusetts, California, or Washington from implementing a real Euro-style lockdown and showing us how it's done?

Isn’t California in particular currently trying to implement a Euro style lockdown and it’s not really helping all that much?

Americans simply are ignoring their respective states lockdowns and gathering in private. Americans have successfully called their states’ bluffs.

rojo wrote:

Seems like the new variant is spreading way faster than the authorities can get the vaccines out.

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1346095880454209539

A national shutdown of the US would be markedly more difficult than that of Scotland. Scotland is about .01% the size of the US. In the United States you’ll also literally be faxing tens of millions of people that are intensely antilockdown and will simply not abide by rules (as we have seen).

It would be interesting to see Biden try it out.

Yeah, I just saw that and posted another thread. Sorry!

But I saw it on Fox and F1 racing is probably going to cancel too. Olympics are toast, and America under Biden will do all he can to force/enforce a lockdown.

Liberals are already chomping at the bit to have people that break the "rules" in jail or detention camps. They will even gladly report and "mark" them (from this website). Then what? Well I think we saw the next stage in WW2 Nazi Germany.

Who would imagine a country of people would do that to people they just didn't like? Well, it happened slowly, overtime, until they were not people anymore, but animals to get rid of. They were made scapegoats and the "problem". Wake up America are we will go down the same path here!

mask off wrote:

Yeah, I just saw that and posted another thread. Sorry!

But I saw it on Fox and F1 racing is probably going to cancel too. Olympics are toast, and America under Biden will do all he can to force/enforce a lockdown.

Liberals are already chomping at the bit to have people that break the "rules" in jail or detention camps. They will even gladly report and "mark" them (from this website). Then what? Well I think we saw the next stage in WW2 Nazi Germany.

Who would imagine a country of people would do that to people they just didn't like? Well, it happened slowly, overtime, until they were not people anymore, but animals to get rid of. They were made scapegoats and the "problem". Wake up America are we will go down the same path here!

Agree ... the hatred the left shows is truly scary.

Dr. Hotez recommended a national lockdown in October to avoid the current surge. He was right. Over 150k people have died since the beginning of October and the death toll is only going to go even higher in January as health systems are overburdened.

If the UK mutation is spreading unchecked in the US, a national lockdown may not only be necessary, it may be completely unavoidable. With R at 1.1, you can anticipate 129 deaths per 10,000 people in a month. A 50% increase in transmissibility would mean 978 deaths per 10,000 people in a month. This is why the UK is going into lockdown. If the same thing happens in the US, it will no longer be possible to try to push through it by expanding ICU capacity and hoping that people will voluntarily stay away from each other.

The current vaccine rollout is too slow to beat out the UK variant if it gets out of control in the US. Even a single dose effort would fall short because states are just beginning to get capacity on line for mass vaccination.

Hopefully there are enough measures in place in the states to keep the UK variant in check long enough to get some vaccination herd immunity to start to kick in. But it is going to be at best very close.

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1343567425107881986

Has nobody noticed that the states with the strictest lockdowns and mask rules have fared no better (worse actually) than those without according to the official numbers?

rojo wrote:

Seems like the new variant is spreading way faster than the authorities can get the vaccines out.

https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1346095880454209539

You might want to change the headline to England and Scotland.

And no, of course the US won't go full national lockdown for a variety of reasons.

The most obvious one is the sheer size of the US compared to UK.

Another of the more obvious reasons is that the US is much more diverse as far as infection rate goes.

A third would be that significant parts of the USA is much more rural than basically any part of England.

On top of that it's politics of course.

You obviously knew this before creating this thread, but a man needs food on his table eh?

Darren Stevens wrote:

Has nobody noticed that the states with the strictest lockdowns and mask rules have fared no better (worse actually) than those without according to the official numbers?

Yup. I have definately noticed.

Some quick takes:

Population density would be my guess as to a primary explanation for this without having studied popuation density in detail as far as the US goes.

The first 5 were also pretty much at the epicenter of the spring outbreak too, so bad luck probably plays a part.

After the first 5 you have more or less republican states with less restrictions it looks like..

In Europe it's actually looks like a mixed bag although in general the nations that's taken the most precaution seem to be doing best (as far as death numbers per capita is concerned).

Some of the worst on top of the list have had little mitigation for too long, then been forced to have quite strict measures.

Population density looks significant in Europe too.

The ones on the bottom (that would be the ones doing better) have been pretty cautious throughout.

In general around the world:

Obviously countries with younger populations seem to be doing better than those with a higher percentage of the demographic being old.

And if you don't test much your numbers will be good too, who would have thought?

Budda wrote:

Another of the more obvious reasons is that the US is much more diverse as far as infection rate goes.

What is that supposed to mean?

Even if this more and more realistic scenario pans out, politics will still make a full national lockdown impossible.

Or are you seeing any scenario where Kristi Noem locks down South Dakota or Mike Dunleavy locks down Alaska to name a couple of obvious ones?

rojo wrote:

Seems like the new variant is spreading way faster than the authorities can get the vaccines out.

Thanks to letsrun who is spreading the anti covid gospel we will have another long lookdown.

Budda wrote:

And no, of course the US won't go full national lockdown for a variety of reasons.

The most obvious one is the sheer size of the US compared to UK.

Another of the more obvious reasons is that the US is much more diverse as far as infection rate goes.

A third would be that significant parts of the USA is much more rural than basically any part of England.

On top of that it's politics of course.

You obviously knew this before creating this thread, but a man needs food on his table eh?

You got it Budda. If in doubt, follow the money.

More clicks, more ad revenue, more $$$.

Hardloper wrote:

Budda wrote:

Another of the more obvious reasons is that the US is much more diverse as far as infection rate goes.

What is that supposed to mean?

I mean that the situation in Arizona is very different from Vermont and Hawaii.

Obvisouly it's not all the same in the UK, but in general the spread is more "uniform".

The vaccine rollout is being botched, and botched badly. We should have 20 million people within a day or two of having significant immunity, but instead it's more like 4 million.