If they listen to their public it will not happen..
If they listen to their public it will not happen..
Seems unlikely.
Canada just had one of their worst death day today, so did Norway, so did...
Tough to believe that 6 or 7 months from now, athletes will have had the opportunity to train, trials will have taken place and Olympics held...
Imagine the PR nightmare for the IOC.
They would be considered to be part of the problem.
0% chance. Not in current format at least.
Maybe they will hold 3 or 4 sports, just to say they held something.
Outside sport
Naturally socially distanced sport
Few athletes (say 12j from different nations (so not a sport which is completely dominated by one country)
High appeal for TV viewers and easy to put on camera.
Limited coaches/officials required
Banned in 60 Seconds wrote:
Yes. Probably with no foreign spectators. Athletes, coaches, and officials will have to arrive three weeks before the games, pass a COVID test before boarding their flight and also upon arrival, and will have heavily restricted movement once in Japan. If you test positive at any point or leave the "bubble", your Olympics are over.
The Games will go on but, the hotels and airlines will take a huge bath on this as no tourists will be allowed in.
100% correct. i also think this is the most likely outcome
Budda wrote:
If they listen to their public it will not happen..
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13221870
Your link says 63% believed it should be postponed as of March 2020, which it was.
The Olympics should go on as normal. If they're worried about Covid, then require a negative test or vaccination to attend. If small outbreaks still occur despite this, quarantine them and carry on.
The NBA showed a bubble can be successful. They can pull it off, and things will likely be better in the summer for the Northern Hemisphere.
In three weeks the U.S. vaccinated about 1.5% of people. And this was over the holidays when they have shortest staff. Things will be quicker from here on out. If the rate stays the same we’ll be at 25% of the population vaccinated by early summer, we’ll likely be closer to 50%. And the types of people being vaccinated are the most at risk of getting it or dying, so that’ll help things by more than 25-50%.... so by July things should be looking decent. Only way they cancel it is if they make a premature decision months before
seems highly improbable
the 'bubble' approach while proven to ~work, is not applicable to the olympic games. Maybe if they trimmed the personnel to athletes only, and gave each of them a tent to isolate in but that will never happen. The olympics is a superspreading shagfest of invincible elites
Before the new variants showed up I would be a hard yes. Now? Who the hell knows.
Not a chance. Too much needs to happen with regards to herd immunity that realistically will not happen in 2021, which is also why Boston and any other large marathon will not take place this year.
2021 = 2020 WON
85% chance the Tokyo Olympics take place. No better than 50% chance the US is allowed to attend unless we get the infection rate way down and the vaccination rate way up.
Toke Yo! wrote:
No Olympics wrote:
Japan has done a very good job at controlling the virus in their country.
Are you sure?
https://indianexpress.com/article/world/tokyo-lockdown-coronavirus-covid-19-japan-tokyo-government-yuriko-koike-yoshihide-suga-prime-minister-of-japan-saitama-prefecture-7129944/
Well... If compared to United States, maybe a lot of countries have done a good job against COVID-19.XD
No way. 2020 games will be postponed another year or cancelled
I think yes!
amkelley wrote:
Banned in 60 Seconds wrote:
Yes. Probably with no foreign spectators. Athletes, coaches, and officials will have to arrive three weeks before the games, pass a COVID test before boarding their flight and also upon arrival, and will have heavily restricted movement once in Japan. If you test positive at any point or leave the "bubble", your Olympics are over.
The Games will go on but, the hotels and airlines will take a huge bath on this as no tourists will be allowed in.
I believe this is the correct answer.
Yes I do too.
Just call me Gallup wrote:
I say no. The world is crawling on getting vaccinations done. No way we have enough done by then. Discus.
My gut feeling is no, but I don't understand why it's not possible.
The biggest concern seems to be "people coming from all over the world to jam into stadiums" which, as we have decided as a society - apparently, could begin the end of humanity as 2% of those people would die (the current global fatality rate though in reality much lower as it's doubtful many covid-19 fatality candidates would be travelling to watch an Olympic Games live in person).
Now that being said, if this is the concern, why wouldn't you simply say that travel to Japan for and during the Olympic Games is simply banned. Athletes and Olympic Team officials need to quarantine upon arrival for 14 days (which honestly mostly happens anyways as teams go to the village or final training destinations etc). There are around 16000 athletes and team officials expected - that is a high number, but not unmanageable if you altered schedule (which you can do right now) and possibly location of events (you can also do right now). Fans are limited to Japanese residents only and maybe you cut spectator numbers by 1/3. Instead of 90k people watching in the Olympic stadium you have 30k (better than Rio was anyway). Tokyo alone is a city of 14 million, shouldn't be an issue should it?
My point is, you can still run these games for what they really should be about - purely the athletic competition. It just would take some massive sacrifices (sorry mom and dad, watching your son or daughter win that Olympic medal won't be happening live like you dreamed it would) and some massive infrastructure thought with respect to accommodating/testing and event planning. But if any nation on earth has the manpower and the intelligence to do that, it's the Japanese. It could be done.
Will it be done? I don't think so - too much money, personal agenda, politics tied up in this (like everything) and you aren't going to please everyone which the world needs to realize isn't a) going to happen b) shouldn't be about that - it can only be about the athletes.
Who knows, maybe this is going on right now (or some other solution) - but is it just me or does it just seem like we are "waiting to see what happens" with respect to the covid situation globally. If that is the case this isn't ending well for the athletes and the Olympic Games in 21.
No.
No Fans = No Olympics
Yes it will happen. Tokyo has already gone on the record. Saying they will have the Olympics no matter what--even if it means only half the countries participate. You don't need fans to host the Olympics. All you need is camera coverage. Sucks yes, but the Olympics will happen.
Yes, for at least the marquis sports such as t&f, swimming, gymnastics, that are in controllable areas, with minimal spectators.