Getting Thin wrote:
ukathleticscoach wrote:
No she's a miler.
They don't run the mile in the Olympics
They run the 1500m which is a lot closer than 3,000m.
People were saying she should switch back to the steeplechase before she won gold at 1500m. Can't believe you lot are still going on about it.
Let it go. She hasn't run a steeple her entire pro career and has made it clear she is not interested in returning to the event. She's a professional. Professionals go where the money is. She's the second best 1500 runner in the U.S. which pays a lot better than being the #1 steepler.
nope_ wrote:
birdbeard wrote:
Coburn is 4 years younger. She's never gone for 1500 bests like Jenny has. I don't think it's as clear cut as you do. They honestly may both be past their PR days. I still think Coburn may have a PR in her, but I'm not sure Jenny does in anything less than 5000.
Jenny's days of being a medal contender in the 1500 (or any event, probably) are over. Honestly she may have a tough time making the team in any event, even the steeple. I always thought she would move up, as she has a lot of unrealized talent at 5000. We'll see.
Steeple would be her best bet at qualifying just because it's a weaker event and there are only 3 other women on her level in the US, but I don't think she would be the favored over Coburn or Frerichs. Frerichs just ran 14:48 and has the AR at 9:00. Coburn has been unbeatable in the US.
With houilihan, Karissa, Cranny, Huddle, etc, the 5k team is no walk in the park.
And former US record holder Shannon Rowburry too [14:38 PB], who just ran a decent 8:40 3k time trial.
Tam wrote:
you still have not said who can beat jenny in a championship race, except shelby
Purrier
birdbeard wrote:
Tam wrote:
you still have not said who can beat jenny in a championship race, except shelby
Purrier
It's worth noting that this has yet to be proven. Jenny did still beat Elle in the 5th Avenue mile, and in all their 1500 matchups before that Jenny was well ahead. However Elle's indoor mile was incredible, and she's running very well. I just wouldn't say yet that she's definitely better than Jenny.
There were so many US women around 4:01-02 last year and Purrier who wasn't even among the best after the top 3 improved tremendously indoors, so while Simpson could still be the best after Houlihan, it is not guaranteed. But the 1500m is her best event. It seems naive to get easily back to world class in the Steeplechase after more than 10 years and with the event far more competitive than in 2008-12. And Simpson has yet to run a great 5000m. While she might get into the top 3 in the US in a somewhat tactical race, I cannot see her run sub 14:30 to be internationally competitive.
birdbeard wrote:
Tam wrote:
4 years younger means nothing, it's not 10, and who can beat jenny in an important race in the last 100m except shelby? please do tell, elle? hahaha jenny eats those for breakfast in championship races, I'm sure you never thought jenny could be a world champ either, emma being unbeatable just tells you how strong the steeple in the us is, collen, seriously??? and do you realize courtney is faster than coburn? good job, you are waaaay off, keep trying
Colleen Quigley beat Shelby to win USAs indoors.
And Shelby has been pacing Colleen the last few weeks...
When Shelby is on, which she is almost all of the time, she doesn't lose to other runners from the US.
Jo72 wrote:
There were so many US women around 4:01-02 last year and Purrier who wasn't even among the best after the top 3 improved tremendously indoors, so while Simpson could still be the best after Houlihan, it is not guaranteed. But the 1500m is her best event. It seems naive to get easily back to world class in the Steeplechase after more than 10 years and with the event far more competitive than in 2008-12. And Simpson has yet to run a great 5000m. While she might get into the top 3 in the US in a somewhat tactical race, I cannot see her run sub 14:30 to be internationally competitive.
Simpson will not be internationally competitive in any event at this stage in her career. I love her, she's one of the top 5 to 10 American distance runners ever, male or female, but she is no longer world class at 33, whether it be 1500, steeple, or 5000.
I’ll make a bold prediction right now and please remember it. Idk when or where it will happen, but Colleen Q. will be the AR holder in the steeplechase before the end of the next Olympic cycle(3-4 years from now)..
Coburn is still our best American when it counts.
birdbeard wrote:
Jo72 wrote:
There were so many US women around 4:01-02 last year and Purrier who wasn't even among the best after the top 3 improved tremendously indoors, so while Simpson could still be the best after Houlihan, it is not guaranteed. But the 1500m is her best event. It seems naive to get easily back to world class in the Steeplechase after more than 10 years and with the event far more competitive than in 2008-12. And Simpson has yet to run a great 5000m. While she might get into the top 3 in the US in a somewhat tactical race, I cannot see her run sub 14:30 to be internationally competitive.
Simpson will not be internationally competitive in any event at this stage in her career. I love her, she's one of the top 5 to 10 American distance runners ever, male or female, but she is no longer world class at 33, whether it be 1500, steeple, or 5000.
What is considered “internationally competitive”?
She was 8th in the world only 9 months ago,
MatthewXCountry wrote:
nope_ wrote:
With houilihan, Karissa, Cranny, Huddle, etc, the 5k team is no walk in the park.
And former US record holder Shannon Rowburry too [14:38 PB], who just ran a decent 8:40 3k time trial.
Huddle hasn’t run a quality 5k in forever.
By the next Olympics Simpson will be almost 35. Runners age out of every event eventually. You can't escape age by changing events.
Cobourn is much more athletic. Can Simpson even jump?! lol you're forgetting the dang hurdles that are in the way.
I could see Houlihan being a stud in the steeple lol
Simpson did well in Doha but besides her age there are now too many fast women for her to get medals by tactical brilliance. Simpson was the best tactician for about 10 years or so and had a sufficient kick so she got more medals than one would have expected from her results on the circuit. (Muir was already a stronger runner in 2016 and 17 but failed because of tactical miscalculations where Simpson succeeded.) Doha was an extreme case but with about 5 women in the 3:55 range and at least another 5 with solid sub 4 ability, there will be fast races and Simpson's not fast enough. (Disregarding Doha, watch how she got dropped in the last lap in the 2019 Zurich DL, I think she also lost a bit of her edge/kick, probably due to age).
birdbeard wrote:
Steeple would be her best bet at qualifying just because it's a weaker event and there are only 3 other women on her level in the US, but I don't think she would be the favored over Coburn or Frerichs. Frerichs just ran 14:48 and has the AR at 9:00. Coburn has been unbeatable in the US.
Weaker events? Steeple is easily one of the U.S women's strongest events.
VroomVroom wrote:
Cobourn is much more athletic. Can Simpson even jump?! lol you're forgetting the dang hurdles that are in the way.
I could see Houlihan being a stud in the steeple lol
Simpson (twice) set the AR in the event and placed 5th at World's in steeple... so yeah, she knows about the hurdles.
[3.1]Miles Davis wrote:
birdbeard wrote:
Steeple would be her best bet at qualifying just because it's a weaker event and there are only 3 other women on her level in the US, but I don't think she would be the favored over Coburn or Frerichs. Frerichs just ran 14:48 and has the AR at 9:00. Coburn has been unbeatable in the US.
Weaker events? Steeple is easily one of the U.S women's strongest events.
The US has 3 of the strongest women worldwide in the steeple. But one of them is quite frequently injured and there is a huge gap to the next two who are only running round 9:30. So with Simpson it would be 4 for 3 spots. In the 1500m the US has about 8-10 sub 4:04 women fighting for 3 spots. Sure, Simpson was last year the second best 1500m woman in the US by some margin but it is going to be hard to keep that position against those 10-12 years younger.
Astute points above about US Steeple & 1500m.
Watch last year's USATF Champs 1500 women's final . . . Hiltz & Johnson appear to have the fastest last 100m of anyone in the race . . . but they were too far back before coming on at the end to make the team for Doha . . . outside of Shelby who is the strongest and fastest, I don't see how anyone can predict who will be #2 and #3 next year at the Trials . . . especially now with all these incredible time trial results we have been seeing this summer . . . Jenny could have a solid race in the finals next year, do everything tactically right, and not even make top-3.
But one point about the US steeple . . . Frerichs 9:00 & Coburn 9:02 are #7 & #8 on the all-time world list and Quigley 9:10 is #23, just ahead of Jenny 9:12 at #24.
However, as was correctly stated above, AllieO & Mel Lawrence are #4 and #5 currently in the US and both their prs is 9:29. Jenny & top-3 would have plenty of room for error -- tripping over a hurdle, bad tactics, etc -- and still get the 4th alternate spot. And, as mentioned above, injuries do happen in the Steeple.
Point is, if you make the US team in the women's Steeple, you are already one the current world's best and have quite a decent chance to medal at the Olympics or Worlds.
Jenny could certainly have an excellent chance to make the US team in the 5k or the 10k (has not been mentioned yet but Jenny pull a Hassan at the Trials, just cruise along, cover every move, then easily outkick everyone at the end) but what are her chances of gold/silver/bronze at Olys/Worlds in either of these longer events? I would think virtually 0%.
So, I believe the point the OP is making is this: Jenny's best chance of medaling at the Olympics -- or Worlds in Eugene in 2022 -- appears to be in the Steeple.
Now, whether that is what's on her mind or whether she's still all-in on the 1500m, we don't know. Her surprise 14:58 indoor 5k this past February may be a hint . . . or it just may be her early season decision to run an overdistance conditioning race.
Corrections to above post
Hiltz of course did make the team to Doha but finished behind Simpson at the US champs because she was not positioned well enough coming into the homestretch. Nikki appeared to have a faster final 100m than Jenny.
Also: AllieO's Steeple pr is 9:30 from her Doha semi heat. However, she has stated in interviews since that she will run the event at the Trials that gives her the best chance of making the US team. For her, that may very well be the 10k given her 32:06 pr from the Stanford Invite last year.
As many others, I can hardly believe that Simpson would return to (injury prone) steeple after >10 years in her mid-30s. However, Grovdal returned to steeple in her late 20s, ran some strong times and got a European bronze, so it seems possible in principle. She'd certainly run around 9:20 without special preparation, so should one of the top 3 be injured early on in 2021 it would be a guaranteed spot. (and ca. 9:18 would also pretty much guarantee making the final in the Olympics) With her superior kick and tactics, she still has good chances in the flat distances. Her 5k seems weak but we don't know if this is for lack of affinity or lack of seriously trying. The US women field in the 5k are not quite as deep as the 1500m and with Houlihan probably preferring the 1500m, Frerichs certainly the steeple, there is only Schweizer clearly ahead. Purrier might also prefer the 1500m, Fraser and Cranny were good in TT type races but Simpson would probably beat them in most "real" 5k races.