This race WAS a big deal. There’s no question about it. There’s obviously still room to go internationally as we saw from the top 2 who’d traveled quite a far way and were both racing hard for the win. King I told you 3:30-31 was doable! (Do wonder if Tim had a 3:30 had he struck earlier)
But domestically, this race stamps Hobbs as a slight favorite to make the team alongside Nuguse and Teare. Of course, we shouldn’t count out Hocker or Centro. But this sort of race puts Hobbs over the likes of Josh Thompson, ncaa guys like Joe Waskom, Craig Engels and so on if you are handicapping.
How could you count 2004 anyway ? He ran in the Olympics FOR Kenya lol.
In March 2005, Lagat announced that he had become a naturalized citizen of the United States on May 7, 2004. Lagat did compete for his homeland Kenya in the 2004 Summer Olympics, winning silver in the 1500 m.
I didn’t convey very well what I meant to convey, obviously. I was merely agreeing that Kessler is no Jim Ryun yet in terms of performance on the world stage and times run in inferior shoes on inferior tracks. But I also implied that if he could handle Ryun’s training, he could very likely be better. I think Kessler can be the first 20-year old or “college age” American to go sub-3:30, sub-7:30, and I’d love to see it. Nuguse has already done it indoors, but he’s 23.
3:32 is a great time for Kessler, but it shouldn’t be unexpected. I never thought the kid was “washed up.” Let’s get him in a legit, sub-3:30 race here soon.
You mean the 3:27.40? The AR ? Even though he ran for Kenya in Summer Games..I don't count anything Lagat did anyway, it's just my thing LOL.Too many sketchy things.
Jim Ryun medaled once on the world stage.(there were no worlds) Ae were no worlds)s great as he was, and he was, he lost or fell in some really big spots when clearly the BEST in the world, he was 5-4 against Liquori and one of those was a disputed photo type race. Lost hugely hyped Dream Mile and 1969 U.S. Champs by 1.6 seconds. Just saying..many guys have losses in the tons of races they ran. Jim was not unbeatable as GREAT as he was..I want to emphasize the GREAT..to be clear. NO one is debating that. Just the way people remember things is sometimes cherry picked from reality.
Many believe that for all of Ryun's inherent talent tools, he was way over trained. for primarily an 8/15 type. Kessler is right where he should be volume wise ...Ron has seen something like this once or twice..also, he was barely ..barely is at 45 or so IN HS. A 10 mile per week progression per year would not be unheard of, as not to break someone before they get better.
I would hope so , Lagat was turning 30 in one of the dirtiest eras ever. I don't think that is very debateable? Is it? Lets see in 5-7 years maybe?
On the Jim Ryun point, if someone had told you that he was 5-4 against Liquori..one a photo I just looked at and 2 more of the wins were when Marty was 17 and 19 and Jim 20 and 22, would you have thought that? And one more of those losses was in Mexico City when Liquori had suffered a stress fracture in pre lims, and ran anyway. Was DFL in 4:18
“I believe he is the 12th fastest U.S. Performer of all time now? 11th if you do not count Lagat and I do not ,as he was running for Kenya when he ran 3:26.34.In March 2005, Lagat announced that he had become a naturalized citizen of the United States on May 7, 2004.”
Based on this quote you did not. That is what I was correcting.
King, my man, a lot of us are huge Hobbs fans. You gotta stop biting off people's heads when they are just straightening out a mistake you wrote. You're like a berserker seeing red in some of these threads haha.
I love it when it's you defending Kessler and Ron against those dumdums who think a 4:05 road mile on a tough course for the win is a "bad sign" or whatever they were saying last month, but you gotta read some of these comments a little more charitably. The VNTC is on a great roll, they'll prove you right in the end, don't worry.
Do you think that something like this could happen at the longer distances? In the '70s Boston Billy and Greg Meyer, along with Pre and others, was the tide that lifted all the boats in the 10k and up races...The Japanese have the ekiden so it'd be cool to have something like that in American long-distance running.
Back to the 1500: At least right now, the US 1500m depth looks INSANE and there could be pipeline building if more kids get into it and a culture is built around it. More and more talent will surface as the hype gets people who might not try it to try it, right? Could you see (and I'm just guessing; this is not fact or anything I can verify) 800m runners going up and 3200m runners going down to 1600m/1500m?
Malcolm ran 3:55 (for 1500). Excellent runner but I’m not sure he deserves to be in this list. And, as you note, he’s a hoser.
Hobbs ran his best times past and present in hoover races. in between he was running regular races, which overstated his times and then understated them and now they are a bit overstated.
the 332 hover race is worth 335 solo or regular unregulated race pace.
with that said, hobbs is on the upward trajectory obviously, and is only 15 meters off the world's best, or at least the podium.
and at 20 years, there without injury, and it looks like he's not over training, the trajectory is 328, in the hoover race,
which isn't anything like ryun's 333.1 1500 in the heat, with 46 second first 300m, on a chewed up dirt track, in the heat, with and uneven pace and lousy drafting....
arthur lydiard chimed in and said he could train ryun to a 346 mile on dirt....
be curious to see what hobbs can do a flat 400 in, if it's 48 low then he can do what cram did. physically that is.
King, Lagat's 3:27 from 2004, after he became a U.S. citizen, but prior to his competing for Kenya at the 2004 Olympics, is recognized as the American 1500m record, just as Mondo's 6+m pv from a few years back was recognized as the American pv record.
Ryun’s “world class” in high school was also aided by much of the world not participating in the sport.
In any case, Ryun is clearly immensely talented. But my definition of talent is a function of a person’s baseline at a young age.
How much training has someone done to reach a given set of times? Ryun was running 100 miles first year of running (I believe).
Hobbs ran 45 miles per week for his senior only and ran 3:34 after less than 3 years of running and only 1 year of serious running. I don’t know if there has been anyone else in the history so lightly trained to run ~ 3:51 mile, let alone as a high school student.
No, he wasn’t doing 100 miles per week his first year of running. He went from 5:38 as a freshman to 4:07 as a sophomore on what was then around 50-70 miles per week depending on the season at East (xc vs track). Is that good enough “baseline at a young age” for your qualification? Ryun ran under 4 minutes in crap spikes beating the Olympic champion and world record holder after only TWO years of running. He didn’t start consistent 100 mpw until the summer after his junior year when he moved in with Coach Timmons and his wife on the farm. You have to understand that the training was based on swimming workouts- this is all his coach knew- massive volumes of 2’s and 4’s with short recovery. I would encourage you to read “The Jim Ryun Story” for some baseline education on the matter.
I’m not sure where you get “much of the world not participating in the sport”, but that’s clearly a new one. It’s the oldest sport out there and was extremely popular in the 60’s. The Kenyans and Ethiopians were deadly even in those days- Wolde, Bikila, Temu, Keino, etc There were the Czechs (odlozil), the Aussies (Clarke), and the Kiwis (Snell, Davies). There were outliers then as there are today- from Belgium…from Tunisia…point being, the whole world was represented.
Besides, how would that false narrative refute a young man’s talent? Look, I’m not trying to be a @$hole here, but I can’t stand false narratives based on lack of knowledge on a subject. You’re young- I get it. You’re enamored with the performance of Kessler- I also get that. What Kessler has done is incredible; but what Ryun did was other worldly. Imagine if Kessler kicked down Cheruiyot on Saturday, but was a high schooler? That is what I think you’re not grasping.
This is silly talk. By much of the world not running, I don’t mean they weren’t introduced to the sport, I mean African participation was not what it is now.
You have to let go of the “imagine if a high schooler set the world record” rhetoric. As time moves on, we get closer to maximum human limits in the sport.
If Jim Ryun were in high school today, he wouldn’t be a 3:42 mile WR guy in high school which seems to be your barometer.
I read the Jim Ryun story over 20 years ago an downloaded his training program.
A better argument for Jim’s talent might be that he was overtrained.
You seem to equate talent to world competitiveness. I don’t.
Back to Hobbs, what so fascinating about him is his 3:34 was from a light training schedule.
No, he wasn’t doing 100 miles per week his first year of running. He went from 5:38 as a freshman to 4:07 as a sophomore on what was then around 50-70 miles per week depending on the season at East (xc vs track). Is that good enough “baseline at a young age” for your qualification? Ryun ran under 4 minutes in crap spikes beating the Olympic champion and world record holder after only TWO years of running. He didn’t start consistent 100 mpw until the summer after his junior year when he moved in with Coach Timmons and his wife on the farm. You have to understand that the training was based on swimming workouts- this is all his coach knew- massive volumes of 2’s and 4’s with short recovery. I would encourage you to read “The Jim Ryun Story” for some baseline education on the matter.
I’m not sure where you get “much of the world not participating in the sport”, but that’s clearly a new one. It’s the oldest sport out there and was extremely popular in the 60’s. The Kenyans and Ethiopians were deadly even in those days- Wolde, Bikila, Temu, Keino, etc There were the Czechs (odlozil), the Aussies (Clarke), and the Kiwis (Snell, Davies). There were outliers then as there are today- from Belgium…from Tunisia…point being, the whole world was represented.
Besides, how would that false narrative refute a young man’s talent? Look, I’m not trying to be a @$hole here, but I can’t stand false narratives based on lack of knowledge on a subject. You’re young- I get it. You’re enamored with the performance of Kessler- I also get that. What Kessler has done is incredible; but what Ryun did was other worldly. Imagine if Kessler kicked down Cheruiyot on Saturday, but was a high schooler? That is what I think you’re not grasping.
This is silly talk. By much of the world not running, I don’t mean they weren’t introduced to the sport, I mean African participation was not what it is now.
You have to let go of the “imagine if a high schooler set the world record” rhetoric. As time moves on, we get closer to maximum human limits in the sport.
If Jim Ryun were in high school today, he wouldn’t be a 3:42 mile WR guy in high school which seems to be your barometer.
I read the Jim Ryun story over 20 years ago an downloaded his training program.
A better argument for Jim’s talent might be that he was overtrained.
You seem to equate talent to world competitiveness. I don’t.
Back to Hobbs, what so fascinating about him is his 3:34 was from a light training schedule.
Yeah it irritates me when people overexaggerate past performances because of lesser quality spikes and tracks, and say that the best athletes all happened to run in the 60's and 70's. I think the guys in the pre-rubber track era would be 1-3 seconds faster/mile with today's technologies, and don't think that Jim Ryun was a 3:42 guy, or that Peter Snell was a 1:39 guy.
This is silly talk. By much of the world not running, I don’t mean they weren’t introduced to the sport, I mean African participation was not what it is now.
You have to let go of the “imagine if a high schooler set the world record” rhetoric. As time moves on, we get closer to maximum human limits in the sport.
If Jim Ryun were in high school today, he wouldn’t be a 3:42 mile WR guy in high school which seems to be your barometer.
I read the Jim Ryun story over 20 years ago an downloaded his training program.
A better argument for Jim’s talent might be that he was overtrained.
You seem to equate talent to world competitiveness. I don’t.
Back to Hobbs, what so fascinating about him is his 3:34 was from a light training schedule.
Yeah it irritates me when people overexaggerate past performances because of lesser quality spikes and tracks, and say that the best athletes all happened to run in the 60's and 70's. I think the guys in the pre-rubber track era would be 1-3 seconds faster/mile with today's technologies, and don't think that Jim Ryun was a 3:42 guy, or that Peter Snell was a 1:39 guy.
Put Ryun in today’s shoes on today’s tracks with even pacing, and he’s probably a 3:47 guy. Real close to Webb’s 3:46.9. I think sub-3:30 in the 1500. That’s where I would put him. A hair under 3:30 but not a 3:27 dude.
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