I’m not saying everything went perfectly when he was with Gjert, but you’re overlooking the very important differences in expectations upon him prior to winning Olympic gold (while being trained by Gjert) and after winning Olympic gold (and being without Gjert). Before he won Olympic gold, nobody expected Jakob to win. He was young, getting better, and he was the firm #2 behind Tim. Very little pressure on him in those days.
Winning Olympic gold changed everything. The pressure and expectations of an Olympic champion are enormous (just ask Athing Mu). Now add a desire to show that he can win and run fast without Gjert. Now add the frustration of going an entire year without running faster in the 1500, the event he cares about the most. Now add seeing all the murmurs that he wouldn’t be as good without Gjert. Now add the experience of losing the world championship 1500 to someone whose father coaches him, just like Jakob’s dad used to do. Can you imagine how awful that must have made Jakob feel? That’s more than enough to push someone like Jakob to the dark side of doping.
Gjert may be a disciplinarian, but he doesn’t seem like a cheater.
Jakob, on the other hand, fits the profile of a cheater. He has a rebellious spirit and doesn’t respect authority. And he has a huge ego that can’t handle losing.
One dimensional psychology is fluffy and superficial and very often wrong, especially when based on lacking factual analysis. “Gjert…doesn’t seem like a cheater. Jakob ..fits the profile of a cheater” -man, this reminds me of myself and the first years I watched Marion Jones run: She seemed like such a nice girl -didn’t seem like a cheater at all..!
I wonder what a 3:25.9 would look like as far as splits. Does he go harder the last 300, or does he need a faster split at 1200? I would think a bit quicker at 1200
2:45.7 :40.2
2:46.2-:39.7
In his two big "historically elite" performances, there is an ever so slight trend developing about the final 300m of his race that I think could give us some insight (along with the optics we see).
Silesia 3.27.14 - 40.32
Monaco 3.26.73 - 40.36
And as we know, despite having underestimated anaerobic power (do we will really still have the "Jakob is a 1.45 800m guy" narrative....really?), I get the feeling that the time is going to have to be made up earlier in the race. Simply put, I don't think Jakob can hope to close the final 300m faster than this, especially as the main body of the race gets faster.
So let's stick with 40.30 as his close (by the way this is 53.7 pace and finishing these races this fast is already absolutely incredible).
We are also seeing a pretty measured approach at bringing his times down through each key intermediate point. Btw check out the opening 400m split! 55.8 seconds on the nose in both races - incredible.
Silesia was 55.8, 1.51.6 and 2.46.82 - laps 55.8, 55.8, 55.2, 40.3
Yesterday was 55.8, 1.51.2 and 2.46.37 - laps 55.8, 55.4, 55.1, 40.3
So he essentially ran his PR in the second lap, gained a tiny bit more in the 3rd but this indicates a pretty clear plan and race execution strategy - and yes I do believe it is this meticulous. Working backwards, he needs to be coming through 1200m in 2.45.6 if we say he can maintain his closing speed of somewhere in that 40.3 ballpark. 3rd lap is always tough no matter who you are - a 55.0 would be a small improvement on what we have seen so far so the key 800m number is 1.50.5/6 (allowing for the 100ths). I do think he has to commit to a faster opening 400 even though it's clear he really likes this high 55 tempo (gets his rhythm going, doesn't put him anywhere near his threshold) But if he's trying to negative/even split every lap through 1200m (which I suspect he is) then I think he's going to have to be something like 55.4, 55.2, 55.0 and then his finish. So I'll land here and be specific because the lights seem to allow for this level of precision
55.4 > 55.2 > 55.0 > 40.3 to get to 3.25.9
Now this might not seem like a lot on paper but it is going to be tough. He had a big jump from 3.29.95 to 3.27.14 and a smaller jump here to 3.26.73 and this pattern is going to continue emerging. Every tenth is really tough now and I know everyone is fired up and thinks (again) the WR is a foregone conclusion but it's really not. This is not going from 4.00.73 to 3.59.99 here - even though the time gap is the same, this gets exponentially harder. I think it's going to be super interesting to see post Paris what happens. He's got Lausanne, Zurich, Brussels left 1500m wise but presumably there is a 3000m WR shot coming in Silesia so that's a lot of running after a huge Paris campaign.
It's "must watch" viewing right now, every time he's out there.
This post was edited 41 seconds after it was posted.
I’m not saying everything went perfectly when he was with Gjert, but you’re overlooking the very important differences in expectations upon him prior to winning Olympic gold (while being trained by Gjert) and after winning Olympic gold (and being without Gjert). Before he won Olympic gold, nobody expected Jakob to win. He was young, getting better, and he was the firm #2 behind Tim. Very little pressure on him in those days.
Winning Olympic gold changed everything. The pressure and expectations of an Olympic champion are enormous (just ask Athing Mu). Now add a desire to show that he can win and run fast without Gjert. Now add the frustration of going an entire year without running faster in the 1500, the event he cares about the most. Now add seeing all the murmurs that he wouldn’t be as good without Gjert. Now add the experience of losing the world championship 1500 to someone whose father coaches him, just like Jakob’s dad used to do. Can you imagine how awful that must have made Jakob feel? That’s more than enough to push someone like Jakob to the dark side of doping.
I don’t think Jakob felt awful at all -he won the WC 5000m against a stellar field (having a couple of drinking “stops”). And before that (in the winter) he sat a new indoors WR.
You don’t seem to know very much about Jakob. -Have you watched the Team Ingebrigtsen series, and listened to the interviews / podcasts..? -I think Jakob is quite unbothered by other’s expectations -his own are far stronger, and over shadows everything from us ignorants around him. But not so much that he is going for short cuts -he could have been far better as a teenager if he had shaped his training short term (more speed /quality intervals) -gone for artificially peaks…
Jakob has a long term view. -Even an OG / WC win is a little thing for him. -Screwing up these champs is of course utterly irritating to him, but not a threat to his long time goal: Becoming really good. And already late fall 2022 (after he himself in interviews had stressed that he the whole season had felt a potential in his body he thought he soon would manage to realise)he was reported being in monster form. So why starting doping then. After that he got sick and injured again -don’t know if doping is the right thing in that situation. But I think with Jakob’s over worldly solid base some time off can give results athletes with a lighter base never could have gotten after injuries….
And this Gjert thing: Gjert has not been a coach with a capital C. -Everything the team has done has been a teamwork, where the brothers have influenced the training, thinking, and racing hugely. -Gjert has been allowed to participate in this “travel” -initially very important and dominant of course, but in early 2022 quite redundant. And that is not a criticism of Gjert -that is a praise of him…!
Saying it is with the best "without exception" (who said that?) is not the same as saying "it is never with the best". Probability suggests it is - as you acknowledge.
Statistics are probability in its simplest form. An indication that doesnt contribute to a single fact on an individual level, but at the same time, a highly useful tool when zooming out.
Your argumentation follows on autopilot. The threshold of evaluation revolves solely around results and nothing else is deemed relevant noise. Innocent until proven otherwise carries zero weight. The same applies to the degree of consistent performances and natural progression, national circumstances, as well as other individual differences from case to case. Intellectual laziness that dumbens the debate. Just the same repetitive cycle over and over again.
Most judgements involving conclusions of fact are based on the balance of probabilities. According to that test Jakob is doping, as are most other top athletes.
The "man of principle" faces criminal charges for assaulting a family member. So what "principle" is that?
Gjert may be a disciplinarian, but he doesn’t seem like a cheater.
Jakob, on the other hand, fits the profile of a cheater. He has a rebellious spirit and doesn’t respect authority. And he has a huge ego that can’t handle losing.
Ghetto isn't a disciplinarian; he is an abuser. That isn't an ethical position.
You don’t think Jakob felt awful after losing to Wightman in 2022??? Come on dude. Of course he did. He’s uber competitive, and he has said the 1500 is his main event. Winning the 5000 softened the blow but he still felt awful about losing the 1500.
I’m not understanding why you bring up the tv show. That show only covered his time up until Tokyo. It didn’t chronicle the year afterwards. It didn’t show you how everything changes for someone once they become an Olympic gold medalist.
Many sport champions say it’s much harder to stay at the top than it is to get there. Jakob experienced that firsthand when he lost the 1500 in 2022. I believe someone like him would be willing to do anything to get back to the top.
I wasn’t going to bring up Gjert because that’s a sensitive issue, but since you guys did, I will comment.
The split from Gjert adds to my suspicion for two reasons. One, Gjert is a man of principle and a strict father who would never allow his sons to take PEDs. With Gjert no longer around to monitor his activities, Jakob had the freedom to do whatever he wants. It’s like when a kid goes off to college.
Two, Jakob struggled in his first season without Gjert. He failed to improve, and he lost the 2022 1500 championship race after winning the Olympics the year before. He probably heard the murmurs on online discussion boards and social media that he was not as good without his father. Being as egotistical as he is, I can imagine him feeling so desperate to show everyone that he can be great without Gjert that he decided to start doping in preparation for the 2023 season.
You have a good imagination, but it’s a little fluffy…
After the break with Gjert Jakob got in really good shape -he f.ex set a new WR indoors in the 1500m. But then he got Covid (and also an injury I believe) and struggled quite a long time. And in 2022 he clearly was the best in the world, for the first time (aside of WC 1500m), and I think it’s wrong to hold the 2021 season (under Gjert) as so much better -Jakob had a lucky pb in the Olympics (0.36 sec) because of Cheruiyot’s pacing. So I don’t think it was about Gjert or a specially bad 2022 season (he won WC 5000m and got a new mile pb). And Jakob also suffered set backs in 2019 -why not start the doping then? (You knowing that Gjert is anti-doping and Jakob pro dope seems totally fictional..).
Wasn´t the break with Gjert after the end of the season in 2022?
Gjert may be a disciplinarian, but he doesn’t seem like a cheater.
Jakob, on the other hand, fits the profile of a cheater. He has a rebellious spirit and doesn’t respect authority. And he has a huge ego that can’t handle losing.
Ghetto isn't a disciplinarian; he is an abuser. That isn't an ethical position.
Now this might not seem like a lot on paper but it is going to be tough. He had a big jump from 3.29.95 to 3.27.14 and a smaller jump here to 3.26.73 and this pattern is going to continue emerging.
*UGH, this should of course be: "big jump from 3.27.95 to 3.27.14"....
Now this might not seem like a lot on paper but it is going to be tough. He had a big jump from 3.29.95 to 3.27.14 and a smaller jump here to 3.26.73 and this pattern is going to continue emerging.
*UGH, this should of course be: "big jump from 3.27.95 to 3.27.14"....
He improved his PB 3:28.32 from 2021 to 3:27.14 in 2023. A jump of 1.18over 2 years. Re 2024: The season isn´t over yet.
By the way Salvatore, a friendly advice:
Start to soften your opinion that his ceiling is in the 3:26.5-7 interval because there is significant risk (from your point of view) that he will break the WR later this year.
And I will repeat my prediction that he also will break 3:25 before the 2028 OG PROVIDED HE STAYS HEALTHY.
Remember how it went with our respective predictions in the past.
You don’t think Jakob felt awful after losing to Wightman in 2022??? Come on dude. Of course he did. He’s uber competitive, and he has said the 1500 is his main event. Winning the 5000 softened the blow but he still felt awful about losing the 1500.
I’m not understanding why you bring up the tv show. That show only covered his time up until Tokyo. It didn’t chronicle the year afterwards. It didn’t show you how everything changes for someone once they become an Olympic gold medalist.
Many sport champions say it’s much harder to stay at the top than it is to get there. Jakob experienced that firsthand when he lost the 1500 in 2022. I believe someone like him would be willing to do anything to get back to the top.
Jakob didn’t fall off the top in 2022 -he reach it for the first time (first time ranked number 1 in the world)… Yes, the loss to Wightman was very irritating -it was unexpected (the Brit had done nothing that season), and hard to swallow. But Wightman didn’t establish himself as a consistent threat - he went directly to a loss in Commonwealth to both Hoare and Cheruiyot. So no -I don’t think Jakob thought he was in decline at all. And he kept winning everything (aside of the WC 1500m). And in the fall reached what he and others have called a monster shape.
Jakob isn’t afraid of losing. He could have skipped Eugene 2024, Bislett and even Euros, for a bird Phoenix performance at Monaco, and claimed that he never really had lost to Kerr (aside of his “sick race”). But he doesn’t care if he loses if he’s inferior -his goal isn’t to win, but to win because he’s the best.
Jakob isn’t here to beat some random guys, or try to stay on the top. And I think even El Guerrouj is a random guy in his view. Jakob isn’t here to beat a coincidental next guy -he’s here to be the best version of himself, and he hopes that is good enough to become the best (if I have interpreted his sayings correctly)… And I’m pretty sure doping doesn’t fit in in his view of being the best -he does this for himself, not for others, and cheating therefore pointless. He doesn’t want / need to cheat on himself…!
Lastly: I mentioned “Team Ingebrigtsen series” because we are talking about Jakob’s mentality, and the series is a valuable source.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.