I look at Jakob and I see a fairly young runner who has essentially maxed out. He may end up running 3:28, 7:30, 12:55 and 26:55. However, I think he is fairly close to that now and I just do not see his arc of improvement yielding much, if anything, beyond the above times. It is still a great career for the young man but there just doesn’t seem to be much room for improvement.
Heres Jonny wrote:
I look at Jakob and I see a fairly young runner who has essentially maxed out. He may end up running 3:28, 7:30, 12:55 and 26:55. However, I think he is fairly close to that now and I just do not see his arc of improvement yielding much, if anything, beyond the above times. It is still a great career for the young man but there just doesn’t seem to be much room for improvement.
This is what I see/think:
People (as well as fans) are piling too much pressure on this young kid.
There is no doubt that he is super talented but people should just let him lead a normal life without placing too much expectation on his young shoulders.
Of course he finished. That race was like yesterday and it was only 1500 meters. He must have finished like 20 hours ago.
Time will tell
Welcome to the same post from 4 years ago when he ran 3:44.
He's competitive in any field on the planet, of course he's close to maxing out, great scoop Sherlock.
You guys must be kidding, right?!
The guy has just improved from 3:30.16 to 3:28.68. An almost 1.5s improvement at the top-end of the sport in a single year at age 19 and there doesn't seem to be more room for improvement?
Seems reasonable to expect him to run at least 3:27 low or high 3:26 with years of training and racing.
He seems more likely to run under 3:26 than it would be for El Guerrouj to break his world record again. And at the time El Guerrouj thought that he was able to run 3:24 and he was already more than 24yo.
I guess he’ll settle for being the best non-African of all time if he doesn’t improve anymore.
Even if he stayed at 3:28 his whole career he’ll come away with some medals. Not sure about his 10,000 ability but I think he will be a medal contender in the 1500 and 5000 until at least like 2032
1/10 on the Trollometer
Should’ve been 0 but you got some bites.
Having said that, anyone who runs a 3:28.x 1500 PB has a decent chance of finishing their career with a 3:28.x best, because it’s so historically fast.
This is one of the strangest posts ever. You rattle off times that are national records and some of the best all time from 1500 to 10k and then say he won't get much better. There is no getting better if you are one of the best all time in the world.
He's either going to be the greatest distance runner of all time, or he's going to top out in the next 2 years.
Brazilian Guy wrote:
He seems more likely to run under 3:26 than it would be for El Guerrouj to break his world record again.
Well yeah but remember Hicham is almost 46 so although I agree with you, Hicham has ZERO chance while Jakob probably has a one in a trillion chance due to drugs, shoe and track technology, etc. However, the smart money says Jakob is now going to essentially plateau.
birdbeard wrote:
I guess he’ll settle for being the best non-African of all time if he doesn’t improve anymore.
Even if he stayed at 3:28 his whole career he’ll come away with some medals. Not sure about his 10,000 ability but I think he will be a medal contender in the 1500 and 5000 until at least like 2032
Jakob will NOT be the best African of all time if he doesn’t improve anymore. You surely do not follow the sport.
Heres Jonny wrote:
the smart money says Jakob is now going to essentially plateau.
Don't you want to give a 19-year-old a little more time to see if he can improve?
People he is still about a month away from being 20. Let’s meet back on this post on August 25th 2025 and we will see where he is compared to now. Nobody has a crystal ball
Heres Jonny wrote:
birdbeard wrote:
I guess he’ll settle for being the best non-African of all time if he doesn’t improve anymore.
Even if he stayed at 3:28 his whole career he’ll come away with some medals. Not sure about his 10,000 ability but I think he will be a medal contender in the 1500 and 5000 until at least like 2032
Jakob will NOT be the best African of all time if he doesn’t improve anymore. You surely do not follow the sport.
He’s the fastest non-African at 1500m already. That was the point I was making.
Heres Jonny wrote:
birdbeard wrote:
I guess he’ll settle for being the best non-African of all time if he doesn’t improve anymore.
Even if he stayed at 3:28 his whole career he’ll come away with some medals. Not sure about his 10,000 ability but I think he will be a medal contender in the 1500 and 5000 until at least like 2032
Jakob will NOT be the best African of all time if he doesn’t improve anymore. You surely do not follow the sport.
True, since he is not african.
Funny - this has been said over and over the last three years. And each year he has improved and is now without doubt the second best 1500meter runner in the world.
Yes, he does not have the kick of Timothy C. but soon he does not need to. Just give him three more years of training, and watch him run each of the three first rounds a second faster, and closing with a strong 300 meter finish to a world record 3.25,76.
being only 19, it is impossible that he has NO physical or psycological potential left in him. If he continues to train well, life supports improvement and nothing bad happens, I cannot understand why he would not improve. It is very well possible that he platous since he started serious training early and may already have hit the 10000-limit ("10 years of 1000 hours training"), but that just means he can specialize his training and reap the fruits of his base and efforts earlier than others, but it does not mean he cannot improve, rather on the contrary.