Debate: Who will be the top American woman at the 2017 Boston Marathon - Jordan Hasay or Desi Linden?

Name one wrote:

not yet convinced wrote:

Too many people have run good half marathons and never run comparable half marathons.

Actually 100 percent of those people have run comparable half marathons.

Bullsh!t. My roommate has only ever run one half marathon and no comparables.

People have this need to believe that there is something special or mythical about the marathon. They love examples of people who have had terrible debuts and only remember them (confirmation bias). There is a long list of people who have had fantastic marathon debuts. Random examples: Men - Kimetto, Bekele, Kipsang, Kiptoo, Desisa, Chebet, Gebrselassie, Tergat, Farah; Women: Radcliffe, Dibaba, Kabuu, Bekele, Wami, Keitany, Kastor.

Of course then you have examples like, hmmm, Desi Linden - what was her first marathon again? Over 2:44? So she fits in well with your pre-conceived notion that you have to suck hard at your first marathon.

Is it not possible that you can train properly and do well at a debut marathon Oh hey, who's Jordan's coach? Would be interesting if you could look to see if anyone from her group ran a debut marathon recently and see how they did, see if they know how to train right and prepare ofr the distance. Like, huh, I don't know, Rupp? Did he win his debut and follow it up with an Olympic bronze? That can't be possible can it? How many of the same people on here were predicting he'd DNF?

I don't think there's anything mystical about it. I just think there are a lot more variables at play over a 2:20-2:30 run than in a 65-70 minute run. It's harder to gauge what's left in the tank, it's harder to figure out the nutrition side of things, it's harder to decide which moves to follow. It's easier to figure some of these things out once you've done it a few times. She does have a good coach for figuring things out on the first go, but there's something to be said for experience more in the marathon than at shorter distances.

Meb winning Boston in 2014 I think is a counter example to saying you always lose out to better talent. He's fast, but he wasn't the most talented guy entering that race, yet he knew what he needed to do to win. Maybe if you have 9:15 guys they'lll always lose to 8:50 guys, but once you get to all the variables that go into a marathon that 3% difference in talent can be washed out by a whole host of who the hell knows what.

It's not that you can't do well in a debut, it's just that maybe there are some new variables in a race of that distance that you haven't had to deal with before, and being there before can be an advantage worth noting.

You are making my point. Basically, you are stating exaclty what I wrote. It doesn't take time to learn the marathon - you are either good at it or not. Weldon (nor myself) was never really good at it - particularly compared to his 10k. But the fact that Weldon ended up running 28;06 for 10k is a minor miracle considering he was a 1425 guy in college and only had a 1354 5k pb.

Another reason I'd forgotten about. I'll ask her tmw if she's wearing the shoes.

David S. Pumpkins wrote:

Meb winning Boston in 2014 I think is a counter example to saying you always lose out to better talent. He's fast, but he wasn't the most talented guy entering that race, yet he knew what he needed to do to win. Maybe if you have 9:15 guys they'lll always lose to 8:50 guys, but once you get to all the variables that go into a marathon that 3% difference in talent can be washed out by a whole host of who the hell knows what.

You make some good points. Let me clarify. I didn't mean to imply a 9:15 guy never can beat an 8:50 guy. Yes, if everything goes well it can happen. But not often. So Meb wins one every 7 years. But if are scoring top 5, you get crushed as it's hard to have 5 Meb type performances at once.

Hasay will be the top American. Here's why:

1. She is in much better shape. 67:55 and 71:03 are not in the same league altogether.

2. Salazar's athletes arrive well-prepared at races. Look at Rupp: he won the Olympic Trials in his first marathon ever!

3. It probably won't be hot on race day, which reduces the risks of a DNF.

4. Hasay is running well since a while. Her confidence is likely very good.

Jordan will win. She will be heavily (PED) medicated. The NOP athletes always are.

UsedToBeKnowItAll

RE: Debate: Who will be the top American woman at the 2017 Boston Marathon - Jordan Hasay or Desi Linden? 4/13/2017 1:38PM - in reply to rojo

UsedToBeKnowItAll

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I think Hasay will be humbled by Boston and the marathon distance. I think Desi will be humbled by the talent of those racing against her this year. They both sound cocky.

I think Hasay's cockiness will hurt her more, so I think Desi wins between the two. Neither of them sniff the overall victory.

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No mo 1985 wrote:

It cracks me up with The brothers Johnson act like they know the marathon.

A 28 flat 10k guy that had a rough time breaking 2:20 in the marathon. I believe he only did it once and that was because he was pacing. A total underachiever in the Marathon.

And his less talented brother.

The fact that a 28 flat guy should be flirting with 2:11 but never does. Why? Because they don't understand the event and think it is just an extension of shorter distances.

Desiree by at least 5 minutes.

Jordan's coach was strong, no kick, and ran his first marathon as an extension of shorter distances. It turned out well for him.

Think Hasay is in better shape than Linden but may experience first time mistakes. Linden not fit enough to win but recent doping results could bring field back to both. Coin flip, experience v rookie fitness, advantage experience. Most likely neither on podium but hope to be wrong.

I don't know who will run faster but I do know Linden is one of the smartest marathoners and Hasay would do well to stay with her as long as possible (20 miles) before starting to race.

Just remember 3 months ago most of you were predicting 228 for Hasay.

Hasay will DNF. Desi will grind it out for top 5.

As someone just said, if Hasay is smart she'll key off Desi for the first 20 miles.

I wouldn't read anything at all into the recent half where Jordan finished well ahead of Desi. That was clearly just a (fatigued) workout for Desi.

I'll be the first to admit I underperformed in the marathon but I ran 1 marathon healthy after I was a 28:10 guy. i don't think the marathon is an extension of the 10k. Hasay wasn't that good at the 10k, but she's great at the half marathon and says she feels even better doing marathon pace stuff.

"Desiree by at least 5 minutes."

But put your money where your mouth is.

I'll take that bet, any amount of money you want. I get Hasay. Email me

wejo@letsrun.com

That Josh Cox posts though should put a little scare in Rojo.

For Hasay to beat Linden she'll have to debut much better than Huddle which is crazy to think she can do (I think she might) because Huddle is such a better track runner.

I am a fan of both and have watched a lot of their races over the years.

Aside from the 2011 Boston, I have not seen Desi really fight for the win. You just don't see it on her face. She goes in there, in top 5 shape but does not position herself for the win.

Jordan on the other hand fights for it. From the NCAA's to her recent races, she guts it out. She takes more risk rather than just sit back.

Hasay FTW!

You are forgetting Linden is giving everything for this. Last chance. It's like Meb when he won. She runs a lot like Meb too. Total conviction and heart. Linden will be top American for sure. Experience and desire is everything.

The only thing in Hasay's favour is the wind, temperature. It could be like 2011, in which case the marathon will come easy to a first timer. This is what would make me predict Hasay. But I won't. I'm with Gault.

Marathon Fan wrote:

I am a fan of both and have watched a lot of their races over the years.

Aside from the 2011 Boston, I have not seen Desi really fight for the win. You just don't see it on her face. She goes in there, in top 5 shape but does not position herself for the win.

Jordan on the other hand fights for it. From the NCAA's to her recent races, she guts it out. She takes more risk rather than just sit back.

Hasay FTW!

Even though I've picked Hasay, your post disgusts me. It really does.

It's just false.

When I look think of Desi, I think of FIGHTER. Hell in the dictionary when you go look up fighter, there should be a picture of Desi.

Did you watch the 2015 race when Desi led much of it?

You can't compare racing at the NCAA level to the Boston marathon. Yes, some years Desi hasn't been with the leaders - guess what - she can't run 2:18. And you call that not fighting?

Did you rip Hasay for not fighting for the win when she ran 67:55 in Prague? She was NEVER with the leaders and was crushed by over 3 minutes. Pathetic. Loser. (Using your logic)

I'll help keep this going for you.

Desiree has unappreciated speed. She has spent very little time in her career focusing on speed but still has run significantly faster than Hasay for 5k and I believe Desiree has also run faster than Hasay for 3k.

I am only referring to the aestethic side of running, as all other points were already given. Think of a Mo Farah final 200; eyeballs out, arms swinging faster.

If you go back to the 2011 race, you can really see Desi closing in. You look at her face, her arm swing - she's digging really deep. The look of desperation is very evident. In the 2015 race when the 3 women took off, Desi just remained relax. To your point, she was fighting and maybe she has matured, and that's how she does it nowadays. Or maybe she was "racing smart" again and there could have been some more in the tank, we wouldn't really know.

The fact that she has opened up to being more aggressive this year has just made my point more valid - she has not been very aggressive before and thinks that she races smart at a certain extent.

Why even bring up Prague, when it's clearly a tune-up race/ time trial? It doesn't make sense.

like both, but it seems a little disrespectful (to Desi) at this point. Desi is a very smart marathoner, I agree with some other posters, Desi 5 minutes over Jordan. Good luck to both, it is an exciting match up.