inferring Rupp's flat marathon ability from Boston

Rupp seams to have a history of pecking away and eventually having a good breakthrough...

Hopefully he'll get stronger in the last 6-7 as he'll need it to get there.[/quote]

exactly. look at his 10k track progression throughout college and after. steady and consistent improvements. it's reasonable to think same could happen for his marathon times. it wasn't like he went from 28 min all of a sudden to sub 27 in the 10k. if the marathon is such a different beast then (aside from freakish marathon-fated runners) why should we expect him to be near his eventual pr 3 marathons in (especially all of them having been more championship style or non-flat paced affairs).

it always baffles me how people can judge someone's career potential so prematurely. always safer to give someone of his talent benefit of the doubt. I say he chips away and sees breakthroughs when all is said and done.

not even close wrote:

Fat = Flavor wrote:

Rupp was in 2;05-high shape in Rio and 2:06-high today (due to his injury). These are Berlin times.

You are hysterical.

If he was in 2:06-high shape today, why did he just get toyed with and whupped by a 2:06 guy?

2:07 high today at best.

It was Kirui's race of his life and would have likely beat any of the posers running London next week.

If healthy, Rupp would have had this guy for lunch...and then gone for a 4x1 mile on a track @ 4:05 per.

Rupp= 2:02:34 in Berlin

Networkengine..." the race had 5 sub-2:05 guys including E. Mutai who ran 2:03 in Berlin"

Based on that logic shall we say that they had a bad day and Rupp a good day? Maybe?

I have to agree with Actual facts, those guy's sub 2:05's were a few moons back.

Why do they get invited? MARKETING, HYPE the race, makes good PR and makes it look like a stronger field than it really was.

But of you look at the data, as I said in another thread last night...."In terms of winning times at Boston, haven't we learned anything about the marathon? Especially marathons like Boston and NYC? anything can happen!

Some "lousy" Boston winning times during the last 12 years:

2005 Hailu Negussie 2:11:44

2007 Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot 2:14:13

2012 Wesley Korir 2:12:40

2016 Lemi Berhanu Hayle 2:12:45

Not to mention the plethora of 2:10's and 2:09's. If you take a look at the data, since 2000 winning below 2:09 was the exception not the norm (only 6 times in 17 years).

If the conditions are Rupp ripe, he has a fair chance to win as any of the other elite runners."

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=8153876&page=2#ixzz4eZPTjkmL

Don't forget Meb

Rupp is a sub 2:05 guy.

In the next three years.

As for the posts on this thread, it seems like moderators are very active.

2:03 low

Real American Man wrote:

2:03 low

No he's a 2:07 guy. Maybe 2:06-high on a fast course on a very good day. Galen is a good racer though, so he should stick to NY and Boston or other similar tough courses where a 2:07 guy like him has a shot at the win.

themanontherun wrote:

I'm honestly not too interested in what his lifetime PR will end up being.

The clock don't lie. It will, in the end, peg the finisher's against each other over the distance.

even further off wrote:

not even close wrote:

You are hysterical.

If he was in 2:06-high shape today, why did he just get toyed with and whupped by a 2:06 guy?

2:07 high today at best.

Calling Kirui, a 24 year-old Kenyan whose coach said he had been running 80 mile weeks before his previous best marathon performance, a 2:06 guy is laughable. Rupp was certainly in better shape than high 2:07 today.

Agree. The fact that Kirui is so undertrained leads me to believe that he has followed a linear progression to even better shape than when he ran 2:06. I don't know if he is a 2:03/4/5 guy at this exact moment, but I'm sure he could PR at this point. By extension, Rupp finished 20 seconds behind a current 2:06 guy. But only time will tell if he actually finished 20 seconds behind someone who was in 2:04/5 shape.

Either way, I'm excited to see what both runners do over the next year and beyond.

Rupp has ran three marathons - all in VERY hot weather, all VERY successful showings. At age 30, he is just getting started in the marathon - it would be very, very surprising if he doesn't run at least sub-2:06 someday. But he also seems like a guy who likes to actually RACE - he may not have much interest in these rabbited time trials such as London, Berlin, Dubai...

Say what you want, but it's also about who's "on" the day of the marathon. Your typical LR hate of Rupp clouds your thinking. Rupp will likely hit 2:05 if he keeps running. Not bad. Certainly better than the 4+ hours it would take someone like yourself to run a full marathon on a flat course.

Test

This was a tactical race m, on a difficult course with sub optimal weather and no rabbit.

Overall time is not a great measure.

Placing in the field is a better measure.

There were 5 Sub 2:07 guys in the field.

(With several other potential Sub 2:07 guys)

2-3 were going to flake out.

2-3 were going to race as expected

1 was likely to have a breakthrough

The best measure of ability is probably: How well did Rupp and Kirui do when the race reached its key moment and people started running hard.

KM 30 - 35 was hilly.

Rupp AND Kirui ran this segment at a pace that would be similar to 2:06 high on a flat course.

KM 35 - 40 was downhill (but the rolling hills offsets any advantage). Kirui ran this segment at 2:02 high pace. Rupp 2:05 high.

My analysis:

Kirui had a break through race indicating he is probably capable of a finish somewhere between 2:02 and 2:06.

Rupp ran as expected. He had a time indicating he could run between 2:05 and 2:07 on a flat cool course.

Good Analysis.

Also, I am thinking that with Rupp his overall size, not his fitness is going to be his limiting factor vs the 2:02 - 2:06 guys who are not nearly as large.

Inferring Rupp's ability in a flat, rabbited marathon from a hilly, unrabbited marathon is a mostly useless exercise. We simply have no idea how Rupp will hold up after a fast first half. It's a different thing entirely than the tactical/controlled first half he's encountered in his first three marathons. If we knew more about his training paces, perhaps - but as I see it there's really

no data to work with.

Obviously, he can run quite a bit faster than his current PR - but I'll be really interested to see what pace he goes out at in his first rabbited marathon. Presumably something targeted at the American Record. 62:45-63:00 seems reasonable. I believe Al Sal has stated in the past he thought Rupp was a 2:05 guy at that time.

I agree with your analysis, I only put it different than most people. Rupp has the potential to be in the 2:05 - 2:07 range.

That said, hopefully Albertico doesn't over-train him and he becomes the 2017-18 version of his coach with a premature marathon burnout.

Spaghettimonster wrote:

even further off wrote:

Calling Kirui, a 24 year-old Kenyan whose coach said he had been running 80 mile weeks before his previous best marathon performance, a 2:06 guy is laughable. Rupp was certainly in better shape than high 2:07 today.

Agree. The fact that Kirui is so undertrained leads me to believe that he has followed a linear progression to even better shape than when he ran 2:06. I don't know if he is a 2:03/4/5 guy at this exact moment, but I'm sure he could PR at this point. By extension, Rupp finished 20 seconds behind a current 2:06 guy. But only time will tell if he actually finished 20 seconds behind someone who was in 2:04/5 shape.

Either way, I'm excited to see what both runners do over the next year and beyond.

20 seconds behind a guy who could have beaten him by 2 minutes. Rupp = 2:07.