Forget About Manning vs Brady - Kipsang vs Mutai - Who You Got - Office Men's Prediction Thread

browski wrote:

The $500k WMM pot is enough motivation for Kipsang to take it. He will leave Mutai in the the Bronx and run solo up 5th and through the Park to victory.

Mutai will fall to 4th place behind Kiprotich and a patient Meb.

Kipsang: 2:07:35

Kiprotich: 2:08:20

Meb: 2:09:10

Mutai: 2:09:15

why isn't Kimetto running?

why isn't Kimetto running?

Second this. He'd only need to finish fourth to land half a million.

Maybe he's obliged by his deal with Berlin to not run any other fall marathons... What else could it be?

MarathonMind wrote:

Cold and windy:

Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Wind chill values between 30 and 40 early. Breezy, with a north wind 23 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.

I would not be surprised if Meb ends up taking it with that forecast.

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Mutai's 2011 is one of -- if not the best -- year a marathoner has ever had. It's unlikely he'll ever be that good again.

They didn't have training controls in Kenya yet back in 2011.

Neither one in my mind wins. This is going to be Kiprotich's race. He is going to attempt to hover right within striking distance while these guys attack the wind chasing a course record and start paying the price around the 30-35km mark. The only way they don't get caught is if they have built up such a lead that Stephen doesn't have the room to catch them. If that is the case I'll take Kipsang to hang on over Mutai. Meb could have a decent race and will probably score another top ten and take top American honors, but with the conservatism he has been speaking with I doubt he breaks 2:10.

maybe meb wrote:

if the conditions aren't good Meb might have a shot. If the weather is good and it's a fast race he won't be able to hang but if it's rainy/windy and it comes down to a 2:09 race, who knows. A small strength runner like Meb can probably handle the wind better than a gazelle like Mutai or Kipsang.

Meb is taller than mutai, and kipsang is a rail. Wind resistance isn't as much of an issue as temp. Meb trained in mammoth and is familiar with snow and wind. This will be his trump card. Still, I think it will be hard to overcome kipsang, kimetto lit a fire under him. However, if kipsang goes out too pumped up like London and mutai tries to cover, this opens the door for the kirui, kogo, and possibly meb group to sneak in there. Kogo is primed for a good one.

With WMM on the line, I think it gives Kipping the edge. Plus he's just been flat out better the last couple years. 2:07:30.

I like that Kipsang isn't wearing arm-warmers

Hard to go against Kipsang as you can't do better than him the last two marathons (world record and London win).

I'm picking Mutai however until Kipsang proves he can win on a tough course in tough conditions.

Kawauchi finishes 5th!

As the conditions are bad could Ugandan Stephen Kiprotich get up for the win.

Kipsang is the guy on form though