Here’s why I don’t think Kipchoge is doping

Clean Sport Advocate wrote:

Thanks for considering my points. Here’s my response to yours.

1 and 2. Yes, he may just be better suited to the marathon than he was for the track, but to be that much better in his late 30s than he ever was in his 20s, and also be so much better than any other marathoner in history at his age, still raises eyebrows. 2:01:09 six weeks before turning 38 (and very possibly even older) is incredible.

3. He was not the world record holder at the 2016 Olympics. He needed super shoes to break the record. That said, what others might have done in that situation isn’t germane to this discussion. The point is he took the opportunity to gain an unfair advantage over his competitors. Given that he took that opportunity, it’s plausible that he would take others.

4. You’re correct, association doesn’t prove guilt. But it sure does make it more probable.

5. Being a marathoner doesn’t mean you can’t race more than twice a year. Lots of marathoners mix in a half-marathon, 10-miler, 25K, etc as part of their schedule. But that’s beside the point. The point is racing only twice a year gives him a lot of time to dope in between competitions.

6. Yes, we all know his 1:59 attempts were not record eligible. Again, that’s not the point. The point is those efforts were a scientific experiment, and it’s plausible that wind resistance was not the only variable being manipulated as part of that experiment.

7. I never said Nike was covering up all their athletes. I’m specifically referring to their partnership with the man who is the face of the benefits of their super shoe tech. It’s not that much of a stretch to think they could be working with Kenyan officials to ensure Kipchoge never gets popped. Corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa is well-documented:

Link:www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/7/2/co...

Link:www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/0...

Link:www.zenger.news/2023/02/05/sub-saharan...

I’ll close by noting that, as you’ve done, you can try to explain away some of my individual points, but if we look at them in their totality, it seems that it’s more likely than not that he is doping.

GreatDane wrote:

Clean Sport Advocate wrote:

Here’s why I think he’s probably doping:

1. He was great in his 20s but never GOAT-level like he is now.

2. He continues to improve and break records as he approaches age 40.

3. When he wore super shoes that were not available to most other runners at the 2016 Olympics, he showed that he’s willing to do things that give him an unfair competitive advantage.

4. He lives and trains in a country that has a well-documented doping problem with its distance runners.

5. He only races twice a year. Plenty of time for him to dope.

6. His partnership with Nike to run under 2:00:00 was a scientific experiment to seemingly try anything and everything possible to show a human could run that fast.

7. Due to said partnership with Nike and all the money they are making from super shoes, there is a vested interest in helping him avoid a negative drug test. And unlike the situation with Lance Armstrong, there is no whistleblower in Kenya who wants to bring down their national hero.
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8. Two from Sang's group got already banned for doping (Rutto + Kacheran).

Addressing your points:

1. An athlete can be phenomenal running track distances and then never do that well at the marathon. Likewise an athlete can excel at the marathon having never been a GOAT on the track - introducing Kipchoge.

2. The marathon is an event where you can improve your times well into your late 30s. Recall Haile Geb who ran the then world record of 2:03:59 at around age 36? Kipchoge has had the advantage of new show technology and also remained injury free which I believe has also aided to an extent his ability to offset this.

3. Are you saying that any other world record holder who was offered new shoe technology that was not necessarily available to all other athletes would have turned down a similar opportunity?

4. Guilty by association is not guilty. Most recent example - Jake being labelled a doper by many because his brother Zane tested positive.

5. He only races twice per year because his event is the marathon! Are you expecting him to be running a marathon every other month and still race as well as possible?

6. From the very beginning it was made very clear to the world that the sub-2 project with Nike if successful would not count as an official world record due to the course used and pacing etc. It was however a project to try to garner renewed public interest in the sport and also open people’s eyes to the possibility of a legal sub 2 marathon under normal conditions.

7. You are basically saying that there is a huge conspiracy within Nike of covering up doping within their athletes. So you think all Nike athletes are dopers? There is not one shred of evidence to suggest that. Nike is however by far the biggest shoe company in the world. Naturally people will try to drag it’s name down into the mud.

GreatDane wrote:

From so many of the posts on here it’s almost like people think that if an athlete is doping it suddenly makes them super human. At it’s essence all EPO does is increase red blood cells making oxygen distribution and use more efficient, boosting endurance beyond what’s normal. Does it prevent an athlete from becoming injured or slow down the aging process? No. Kipchoge is an outlier in this way in so many respects. He has had a world class career that has spanned the good part of 2 decades, rarely if ever has had a serious injury and now in his late 30s has continued to improve on his marathon times. EPO does not have the ability to help an athlete continue to improve as they age. If an athlete has been doping for a long period of time you would still expect their performances to gradually decline as part of the normal aging process. For whatever reason Kipchoge has managed to continue to improve. I believe this is primarily the result of him perfecting his marathon race more and more which has had a net positive impact over any negative impact from aging. I do believe however that Kipchoge will probably not make much more of a dent in his world record. No matter how much of an outlier he is as an athlete Mother Nature will eventually catch up.